neff Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 first post... snow coming.... everybody panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is for sauss: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 first post... snow coming.... everybody panic party. fixed.. Your welcome...and welcome!! Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 first post... snow coming.... everybody panic. Good enough, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lets go. By this time tomorrow we have the SREFs in our toolkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Opps: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47681-central-pa-2016-snow-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I thought SREF's were only good inside 48?? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I thought SREF's were only good inside 48?? Nut More symbolic than anything. I use them inside 60 hours. Frankly, unless the EURO/UKMET go to dirt, I don't really use them inside 36-48 hours. They're more mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Has anyone heard from/about Zach? He would be going nuts, but unsure of his health currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I thought SREF's were only good inside 48?? Nut Are you thinking NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Has anyone heard from/about Zach? He would be going nuts, but unsure of his health currently. Last I had heard, he joined with S&S. But that was a few months ago. Edit: looks like he's alive and kicking per facebook, just posted euro snow totals for the MA Euro shows 16 for LNS, 17 for MDT, and PA jackpot around Adams/Franklin counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hey now, new thread and PBR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 A good Twitter feed to follow, even if you don't have an account. The CIPS Analog Guidance: https://twitter.com/CIPSAnalogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Horst: Here's my "probabilistic forecast" for LanCo--accounts for various uncertainties: 20% chc of< 6", 40% chc 6-12", 30%chc 12-20", 10% chc 20"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 More symbolic than anything. I use them inside 60 hours. Frankly, unless the EURO/UKMET go to dirt, I don't really use them inside 36-48 hours. They're more mid range. well at least we dont have that to worry about..................... so far........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 OT, but wx related, that TOR in Lancaster County this past fall happened about a mile from our new house, the night we settled on it. Had no idea it happened until I went to Lowes the following morning and saw damage, followed by the NWS survey crew flying overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Horst:Here's my "probabilistic forecast" for LanCo--accounts for various uncertainties: 20% chc of< 6", 40% chc 6-12", 30%chc 12-20", 10% chc 20"+ So he's slightly skewed to the 12+side of the umbrellla.....interesting. His neck shouldnt hurt too much given todays guidance.. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CIPS Analogs. #3 =0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So he's slightly skewed to the 12+side of the umbrellla.....interesting. His neck shouldnt hurt too much given todays guidance.. Nut I can't recall Eric being that bullish this far out. When I read that this afternoon I got very excited. However...to be very clear, he stated that this storm has bust potential. So this journey still has a long way to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NCEP Operational Status Message Tue Jan 19 01:54:46 2016 GMTNOUS42 KWNO 190154 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0152Z TUE JAN 19 2016 THE 00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON-TIME... 00Z RAOB RECAP.. 70414/SYA - N/A FOR THE NAM 76458/MZT - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS.. 76654/MZL - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS.. 76692/HYY - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS.. SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Is that you neffsville? If so welcome back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 OT, but wx related, that TOR in Lancaster County this past fall happened about a mile from our new house, the night we settled on it. Had no idea it happened until I went to Lowes the following morning and saw damage, followed by the NWS survey crew flying overhead.Did you post under a different name previously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Relevant info from latest AFD: BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS THIS FAR OUT...THERE CONTINUES TO BEMEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OVER THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO CWA BEING ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTHALF. CONSENSUS PTYPE IS SNOW...WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR INPLACE. KEEP IN MIND THAT OBVIOUSLY IT/S STILL FAR TOO EARLY TOSAY FOR CERTAIN 4-5 DAYS OUT...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE WAVE DRIVINGTHIS ISN/T EVEN TO THE WEST COAST YET. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OFVARIABLES IN PLAY THAT COULD IMPACT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Is that you neffsville? If so welcome back. yep. thanks. work is slow and I figured with the possible impending event this would be a good way to pass the time. Did you post under a different name previously? see above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Relevant info from latest AFD: That's the best road to go down through 00z runs Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Relevant info from latest AFD: That's the best road to go down through 00z runs Thursday. Still, I'm not sure I can recall seeing 70% pops for a storm 4-5 days away... Friday Snow likely, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 First post on a wx post by a news channel: "Ugh I'm tired of snow this year, we've had enough" Um lady we haven't had .5", shuddup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 First post on a wx post by a news channel: "Ugh I'm tired of snow this year, we've had enough" Um lady we haven't had .5", shuddup. post on Lancaster Online: Donna Lawrence · Manheim Township High School It would be good if just once he gets half close. Many of us guess the weather better and don't get paid for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 People are morons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 First post on a wx post by a news channel: "Ugh I'm tired of snow this year, we've had enough" Um lady we haven't had .5", shuddup. Nothing is more irritating than the TV news people (or anyone under 60) bitching about normal winter weather. Don't like it? MOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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