BxEngine Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I figured you'd be the one to know that. How else are you supposed to drive in NYC traffic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 So yeah it's been a prime topic of discussion but, dry dry dry. Even under the densest leaf canopy in the woods around here the soil moisture has plummeted in the last few days. It seems like creeks are running lower and slower and the reservoirs appear to be dropping now too. Won't be long until the fire danger soars. On the plus side it's been two weeks since I've had to mow the lawn and now it's browning out and growth has stopped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 So yeah it's been a prime topic of discussion but, dry dry dry. Even under the densest leaf canopy in the woods around here the soil moisture has plummeted in the last few days. It seems like creeks are running lower and slower and the reservoirs appear to be dropping now too. Won't be long until the fire danger soars. On the plus side it's been two weeks since I've had to mow the lawn and now it's browning out and growth has stopped...I mowed mine then other day after two weeks only to even it out and chop up the leaves and twigs that were blown down in the winds. The pond by me is noticeably dropping now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 There's been a few brush fires locally over the last few days and there's another relatively small forest fire up near Minnewaska that they hope to have contained by the end of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 Is that why the park was closed yesterday? I had some friends that headed up there to ride and were turned away so they headed over to Stewart State Forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 Is that why the park was closed yesterday? I had some friends that headed up there to ride and were turned away so they headed over to Stewart State Forest. Yep. The good news that as of last night they had it 90% contained, hopefully fully contained by the end of today. This was was in close location to the one six years ago if you're familiar with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 Ehh, wet but I don't think it's even enough to reach the forest floor. Hopefully tomorrow is more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Ehh, wet but I don't think it's even enough to reach the forest floor. Hopefully tomorrow is more significant.I picked up .30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 Check out radar finally Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 Picked up 1.42" and it was still raining, a pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 I'm getting lightning here, not so constant but still about 4 miles away Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 .11. I freaking quit. Flood and severe warnings everywhere it feels like. Uh, why do I have to like the weather. Need a new hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 .11. I freaking quit. Flood and severe warnings everywhere it feels like. Uh, why do I have to like the weather. Need a new hobbyHow about the irony that I moved to Rockland from Staten, and for the past year and a half, Staten has been getting hit harder than Rockland... kinda makes me feel like I should be apologizing to the board since my move here has gotta be the fault Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 Haha nycemt123, good, I have someone to blame now. It has been a rough year. It has to turn around at some point...I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 Haha nycemt123, good, I have someone to blame now. It has been a rough year. It has to turn around at some point...I thinkI'm sure it will Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 Got soaked two nights in a row. Ready for a fee more dry weeks now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 1.82" in the Stratus this morning, 1.95" on the Vantage Vue. That goes to the point that the electronic gauges can come in high in heavy rainfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 from the Pike County Dispatch before last nights rains... Dry Spell Continues In Tri-State PORT JERVIS —Year-to-date precipitation totals for three counties in the Upper Delaware River watershed remain as much as 25 to 50 percent below normal, according to a hydrologic report presented at the June 15 meeting of the Delaware River Basin Commission. Pike County’s departure from average precipitation for the period Jan. 1 to June 13 was 3.9 inches, or 24.5 percent below normal. Sullivan County, NY had a precipitation deficit of 5.4 inches, or 34 percent below normal. Sussex County NJ’s deficit was 5.6 inches, or 35.6 percent. The observed precipitation for the Delaware River Basin above Montague, NJ for the period Jan. 1 through June 13 was 15.50 inches, or 3.63 inches below normal, according to the DRBC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 from the Pike County Dispatch before last nights rains... Dry Spell Continues In Tri-State PORT JERVIS —Year-to-date precipitation totals for three counties in the Upper Delaware River watershed remain as much as 25 to 50 percent below normal, according to a hydrologic report presented at the June 15 meeting of the Delaware River Basin Commission. Pike County’s departure from average precipitation for the period Jan. 1 to June 13 was 3.9 inches, or 24.5 percent below normal. Sullivan County, NY had a precipitation deficit of 5.4 inches, or 34 percent below normal. Sussex County NJ’s deficit was 5.6 inches, or 35.6 percent. The observed precipitation for the Delaware River Basin above Montague, NJ for the period Jan. 1 through June 13 was 15.50 inches, or 3.63 inches below normal, according to the DRBC. Not a good start to the summer in the rainfall department for sure. While I lucked out with a good soaking last night and just over 2" for the week it was localized. I'm thinking while my grass will look better, the Wallkill won't show much of any change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Could be active tomorrow. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1228 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 ...MUCH OF NY SWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH SOME MOISTUREADVECTION. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS DIFFICULT TOFORECAST...DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F SEEM REASONABLE. THIS WILLLEAD TO AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM PA/NYINTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLDFRONT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AS WILL WIND FIELDS WITH 30+ KT850 MB FLOW. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR SUPERCELLSGIVEN SUFFICIENT TURNING WITH HEIGHT AND THE OVERALL FAVORABLEFORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED TO ASLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL...WIND...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0100 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016 ...NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THEDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NWD ON STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW.THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INITIALLY CONFINED TO THE CHESAPEAKEBAY VICINITY WILL MOVE INTO THE DELAWARE AND LOWER HUDSON RIVERVALLEYS DURING THE DAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.A CORRIDOR OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS ALBANY NYAND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FARTHER S NEAR THE DELMARVA.STRENGTHENING AND VEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMSDEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE BAND OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYERASCENT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR. A MIX OF CELLS AND SMALL LINESEGMENTS WILL POSE PRIMARILY A RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE CLOSER TO THECANADIAN BORDER WHEREAS HIGHER BUOYANCY AND SOMEBACKED/TERRAIN-CHANNELED FLOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY MAY BE MOREFAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO RISK. Upton Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY508 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...** MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THETRI-STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING **A 850-500 hPa trough moves across the Great Lakes today,with thetrough axis pushing across the area tonight.Ahead of it, winds veer from the SSE-SE at the surface to SW-WSWat 500 hPa, with a Bulk shear of 30-40kt. In addition to the speedand directional shear, 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE is forecast overmost of the region (only 500-1000 J/kg over Eastern Long Islandand coastal SE CT). Furthermore the region will be under thesurface theta-e ridge and have a 25-30kt 950 hPa jet pass just tothe south. Given the shear, CAPE, abundant low level moisture andforcing from the low level jet and an approaching warm front (andcold front by late afternoon), the ingredients exist for strong tosevere storms across the Tri-State from mainly this afternoon intothis evening. Bulk Richardson numbers in the 15-40 range, alongwith hodographs suggest potential for some isolated supercellsand possibly some bowing segments as you get towards lateafternoon/early evening.Consistent with this, SPC has placed NYC, NE NJ, the Lower HudsonValley and most of Fairfield County in a slight risk for severethunderstorms, and the remainder of the CWA in a marginal risk.The main threat is from damaging winds, with a secondary threatfrom large hail. In addition, given the anticipated low levelhelicity, as evidenced by Vorticity Generation Parameter fromaround 0.25-0.5 and Energy Helicity Index of 1 to 2.5 acrossmainly the W 2/3 of the CWA (highest over NE NJ/Lower HudsonValley), LCLs forecast down to around 800-900m there is a smallchance for tornadoes, highest west of the Hudson River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Yikes, could be an interesting day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1151 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...ERN PA...NJ...DE...NRN MD AND WRN NEWENGLANDCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 011651Z - 011845ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE INCOVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FORDAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. A WW WILLLIKELY BE NEEDED BY 18Z.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM ERNNY INTO ERN PA WITHIN A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AND WEAKENINGCONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL INCREASEIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PROMOTED BY BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING ANDCORRIDOR OF DEEP ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVETROUGH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO BETWEEN500-1500 J/KG...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS THESFC-LAYER WARMS. A BELT OF 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYINGTHE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO UP TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEARWHICH SUGGESTS SOME STORMS WILL DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION. MIXEDSTORM MODES WITH BOTH MULTICELL AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AREEXPECTED AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DIAL/CORFIDI.. 07/01/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Its game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Hard to believe it's already been a decade since the F1 tornado a few minutes down the road from me. Since then, it's been the longest stretch without a documented tornado in Dutchess County since the '70s. http://www.qsl.net/n2sln/june252006.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Hard to believe it's already been a decade since the F1 tornado a few minutes down the road from me. Since then, it's been the longest stretch without a documented tornado in Dutchess County since the '70s. http://www.qsl.net/n2sln/june252006.html We had a tornado over here on 7/29/11 but I don't think it made it past F0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 We had a tornado over here on 7/29/11 but I don't think it made it past F0 I believe that was in 09.. That was the one a few miles SW of here in Unionville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Right smack in the middle of it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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