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Summer Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2016


snywx

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So yeah it's been a prime topic of discussion but, dry dry dry.  Even under the densest leaf canopy in the woods around here the soil moisture has plummeted in the last few days.  It seems like creeks are running lower and slower and the reservoirs appear to be dropping now too.  Won't be long until the fire danger soars.  On the plus side it's been two weeks since I've had to mow the lawn and now it's browning out and growth has stopped...

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So yeah it's been a prime topic of discussion but, dry dry dry. Even under the densest leaf canopy in the woods around here the soil moisture has plummeted in the last few days. It seems like creeks are running lower and slower and the reservoirs appear to be dropping now too. Won't be long until the fire danger soars. On the plus side it's been two weeks since I've had to mow the lawn and now it's browning out and growth has stopped...

I mowed mine then other day after two weeks only to even it out and chop up the leaves and twigs that were blown down in the winds. The pond by me is noticeably dropping now.
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Is that why the park was closed yesterday?  I had some friends that headed up there to ride and were turned away so they headed over to Stewart State Forest.

Yep.  The good news that as of last night they had it 90% contained, hopefully fully contained by the end of today.  This was was in  close location to the one six years ago if you're familiar with that one.  

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.11. I freaking quit. Flood and severe warnings everywhere it feels like. Uh, why do I have to like the weather. Need a new hobby

How about the irony that I moved to Rockland from Staten, and for the past year and a half, Staten has been getting hit harder than Rockland... kinda makes me feel like I should be apologizing to the board since my move here has gotta be the fault :(

Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk

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from the Pike County Dispatch before last nights rains... Dry Spell Continues In Tri-State

PORT JERVIS —Year-to-date precipitation totals for three counties in the Upper Delaware River watershed remain as much as 25 to 50 percent below normal, according to a hydrologic report presented at the June 15 meeting of the Delaware River Basin Commission.

Pike County’s departure from average precipitation for the period Jan. 1 to June 13 was 3.9 inches, or 24.5 percent below normal. Sullivan County, NY had a precipitation deficit of 5.4 inches, or 34 percent below normal. Sussex County NJ’s deficit was 5.6 inches, or 35.6 percent.

The observed precipitation for the Delaware River Basin above Montague, NJ for the period Jan. 1 through June 13 was 15.50 inches, or 3.63 inches below normal, according to the DRBC.

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from the Pike County Dispatch before last nights rains... Dry Spell Continues In Tri-State

PORT JERVIS —Year-to-date precipitation totals for three counties in the Upper Delaware River watershed remain as much as 25 to 50 percent below normal, according to a hydrologic report presented at the June 15 meeting of the Delaware River Basin Commission.

Pike County’s departure from average precipitation for the period Jan. 1 to June 13 was 3.9 inches, or 24.5 percent below normal. Sullivan County, NY had a precipitation deficit of 5.4 inches, or 34 percent below normal. Sussex County NJ’s deficit was 5.6 inches, or 35.6 percent.

The observed precipitation for the Delaware River Basin above Montague, NJ for the period Jan. 1 through June 13 was 15.50 inches, or 3.63 inches below normal, according to the DRBC.

 

Not a good start to the summer in the rainfall department for sure.  While I lucked out with a good soaking last night and just over 2" for the week it was localized.  I'm thinking while my grass will look better, the Wallkill won't show much of any change.

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Could be active tomorrow.

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

 

...MUCH OF NY SWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F SEEM REASONABLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM PA/NY
INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AS WILL WIND FIELDS WITH 30+ KT
850 MB FLOW. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS
GIVEN SUFFICIENT TURNING WITH HEIGHT AND THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL...WIND...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016

 

...NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NWD ON STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW.
THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INITIALLY CONFINED TO THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY VICINITY WILL MOVE INTO THE DELAWARE AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEYS DURING THE DAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.
A CORRIDOR OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS ALBANY NY
AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FARTHER S NEAR THE DELMARVA.
STRENGTHENING AND VEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE BAND OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR. A MIX OF CELLS AND SMALL LINE
SEGMENTS WILL POSE PRIMARILY A RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE CLOSER TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER WHEREAS HIGHER BUOYANCY AND SOME
BACKED/TERRAIN-CHANNELED FLOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY MAY BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO RISK. 

 

Upton

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service New York NY
508 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
** MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING **

A 850-500 hPa trough moves across the Great Lakes today,with the
trough axis pushing across the area tonight.

Ahead of it, winds veer from the SSE-SE at the surface to SW-WSW
at 500 hPa, with a Bulk shear of 30-40kt. In addition to the speed
and directional shear, 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE is forecast over
most of the region (only 500-1000 J/kg over Eastern Long Island
and coastal SE CT). Furthermore the region will be under the
surface theta-e ridge and have a 25-30kt 950 hPa jet pass just to
the south. Given the shear, CAPE, abundant low level moisture and
forcing from the low level jet and an approaching warm front (and
cold front by late afternoon), the ingredients exist for strong to
severe storms across the Tri-State from mainly this afternoon into
this evening. Bulk Richardson numbers in the 15-40 range, along
with hodographs suggest potential for some isolated supercells
and possibly some bowing segments as you get towards late
afternoon/early evening.

Consistent with this, SPC has placed NYC, NE NJ, the Lower Hudson
Valley and most of Fairfield County in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms, and the remainder of the CWA in a marginal risk.
The main threat is from damaging winds, with a secondary threat
from large hail. In addition, given the anticipated low level
helicity, as evidenced by Vorticity Generation Parameter from
around 0.25-0.5 and Energy Helicity Index of 1 to 2.5 across
mainly the W 2/3 of the CWA (highest over NE NJ/Lower Hudson
Valley), LCLs forecast down to around 800-900m there is a small
chance for tornadoes, highest west of the Hudson River.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...ERN PA...NJ...DE...NRN MD AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011651Z - 011845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. A WW WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 18Z.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM ERN
NY INTO ERN PA WITHIN A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AND WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PROMOTED BY BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND
CORRIDOR OF DEEP ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO BETWEEN
500-1500 J/KG...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS THE
SFC-LAYER WARMS. A BELT OF 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO UP TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
WHICH SUGGESTS SOME STORMS WILL DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION. MIXED
STORM MODES WITH BOTH MULTICELL AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 07/01/2016

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Hard to believe it's already been a decade since the F1 tornado a few minutes down the road from me. Since then, it's been the longest stretch without a documented tornado in Dutchess County since the '70s.

 

http://www.qsl.net/n2sln/june252006.html

We had a tornado over here on 7/29/11 but I don't think it made it past F0

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