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Summer Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2016


snywx

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Will they think it's colder than someone from NY? Sure, but how the body "feels" cold is a totally different phenomenon than how the body develops frostbite. That's the difference I'm trying to point out here. Someone from Florida will not get frostbite at a higher temperature than someone from NY.

I gotcha. Who knows why they do it. I think South Florida issues WC Advisories for 35° and below lol

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GFS was def a step in the right direction. Good front end thump followed by a flip to heavy snow with the CCB passing overhead.

Nah dude sorry, your getting desperate... It's a lock, rain event...

The man that sets predictions in stone 5 days out, claims victory when they verify, and disappears without a peep when he's wrong said so.....

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I honestly don't think we flip to plain rain. Ive seen this setup over and over again. I do think we taint for a period but this should primarily be a wintry event for most 40+ miles N/NW of the city. Ill take 6-10" with a crusty layer in a heartbeat!

I do favor a nice from end thump then a flip to sleet. From there it really depends on the track of the low. If it goes over you or to your west, you will change to rain then possibly dry slot before flipping to a period of snow before it ends. If this ends up even further west it will be a decent front end to rain.

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The arctic air will be hard to erode and if the system ends up being less amped, cold air at surface will stick around until an eventual switch to liquid. Ideal would be a track east of is, but if not, I would be ok with an overhead track featuring a front end dump to ice, to light rain or drizzle, dry slot, back end snow showers. If the system gets in quicker, the added WAA snow would be nice. Would be fine with a crusty 6 inches of snow that settles a bit layered by a half inch of fluff at the end. The pure wintry scene will be nice.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

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The arctic air will be hard to erode, and if the system ends up being less amped, cold air at surface will stick around until an eventual switch to liquid. Ideal would be a track east of is, but if not, I would be ok with an overhead track featuring a front end dump to ice, to light rain or drizzle, dry slot, back end snow showers. If the system gets in quicker, the added WAA snow would be nice. Would be fine with a crusty 6 inches of snow that settles a bit layered by a half inch of fluff at the end. The pure wintry scene will be nice.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

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The arctic air will be hard to erode and if the system ends up being less amped, cold air at surface will stick around until an eventual switch to liquid. Ideal would be a track east of is, but if not, I would be ok with an overhead track featuring a front end dump to ice, to light rain or drizzle, dry slot, back end snow showers. If the system gets in quicker, the added WAA snow would be nice. Would be fine with a crusty 6 inches of snow that settles a bit layered by a half inch of fluff at the end. The pure wintry scene will be nice.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

At this point the key for a larger snowstorm for you guys is a less amped system.

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At 108 hours, the GFS has the low over Nassau County, while the Euro has it over Elmira, and the GEM has it already up in Maine (though does bring it over Islip at 102 hours). Is the truth somewhere in the middle? 

The Euro is skewing everything way to the west. Hope it's out to lunch. Did it have any front end snows?

 

Edit...just checked wunderground and its 1-2" before dryslotting the HV with temps in the upper 40s.

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The JMA seems to align more with the GFS and GEM, at least as far as low positioning goes (though it looks to be a torch aloft).

 

One thing appears certain, this is a juicy system. Every model has a bullseye somewhere of at least 2-3" of QPF.

 

 

This has all the ear markings for a western PA / NY clobbering.

We should get a few inches of snow/sleet at the start.

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It's a shame that this record cold airmass is being wasted by lack of snowcover, strong winds, and a warm Lake Ontario. You would have to think if all those things went in our favor, we would be more like -15 to -20, right?

Maybe but not sure since its CAA. I've read lots of books that have nothing to do with this but I can't help but think that the lack of a decent snowcover could at least modify it a touch.
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Maybe but not sure since its CAA. I've read lots of books that have nothing to do with this but I can't help but think that the lack of a decent snowcover could at least modify it a touch.

 

The snow cover maybe not so much, but check out the 2m temperatures vs the 850 temperatures. Not much difference over central vs eastern NY in the 850's but a big difference in surface temps downwind of Ontario.

 

namconus_T850_neus_15.png

 

namconus_T2m_neus_15.png

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Are you kidding me.

My point and click forecast.

Polar Vortex part 3 & 1/2

 

 

Tonight
Scattered snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -4. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday
Partly sunny and cold, with a temperature falling to around 2 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -17. Northwest wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around -9. Wind chill values as low as -25. Blustery, with a northwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 11. Wind chill values as low as -26. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 5. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening
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Are you kidding me.

My point and click forecast.

Polar Vortex part 3 & 1/2

Tonight

Scattered snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -4. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday

Partly sunny and cold, with a temperature falling to around 2 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -17. Northwest wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around -9. Wind chill values as low as -25. Blustery, with a northwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 11. Wind chill values as low as -26. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 5. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening

Were you expecting more snow...

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

236 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND...

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-NJZ007>010-012>027-PAZ060>062-070-071-

101>106-131000-

/O.NEW.KPHI.WC.Y.0002.160213T2300Z-160214T1400Z/

NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-

MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-

GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-

ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-

COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-

DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-

WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON...

CHESTERTOWN...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...

NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...

GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...

JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...

OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...

WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...

MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...

KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...

LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN

236 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST

SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WIND

CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM

EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY, A LARGE

PORTION OF MARYLAND`S EASTERN SHORE AS WELL AS THE NORTH AND

CENTRAL PORTION OF DELAWARE.

* WIND CHILL...10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20

MPH GUSTING TO NEARLY 40 MPH.

* TIMING...WIND CHILLS WILL BEGIN TO DROP TO DANGEROUS LEVELS LATE

SATURDAY WITH THE COLDEST VALUES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE

SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL SLOWLY EASE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...WIND CHILL VALUES POTENTIALLY REACHING DANGEROUS

LEVELS. THE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT

IN HYPOTHERMIA IF CARE IS NOT TAKEN TO STAY WARM AND SHELTERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS

WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN

FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND

GLOVES.

&&

$$

Well, Mount Holly took our advice from earlier this morning :D

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