JerseyWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Will they think it's colder than someone from NY? Sure, but how the body "feels" cold is a totally different phenomenon than how the body develops frostbite. That's the difference I'm trying to point out here. Someone from Florida will not get frostbite at a higher temperature than someone from NY. I gotcha. Who knows why they do it. I think South Florida issues WC Advisories for 35° and below lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS was def a step in the right direction. Good front end thump followed by a flip to heavy snow with the CCB passing overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS was def a step in the right direction. Good front end thump followed by a flip to heavy snow with the CCB passing overhead. Nah dude sorry, your getting desperate... It's a lock, rain event... The man that sets predictions in stone 5 days out, claims victory when they verify, and disappears without a peep when he's wrong said so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nah dude sorry, your getting desperate... It's a lock, rain event... The man that sets predictions in stone 5 days out, claims victory when they verify, and disappears without a peep when he's wrong said so..... What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What? Nevermind lol... Forky said I'm getting desperate for posting the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Canadian is E as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Canadian is E as well That track works for me. Half a tick cooler and we're all pretty much in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That track works for me. Half a tick cooler and we're all pretty much in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm giving that map the "la-la-la, can't hear you!" treatment until it no longer shows DC getting more snow than me (again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z GFS ( includes front end and back end) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'd take the Gfs and Cmc in a heart beat here in Nepa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Big shift on the GFS ensembles as well. On the 6z run, the mean was over Watertown at hour 114, on this run it goes over us. A few nice individual hits as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 I honestly don't think we flip to plain rain. Ive seen this setup over and over again. I do think we taint for a period but this should primarily be a wintry event for most 40+ miles N/NW of the city. Ill take 6-10" with a crusty layer in a heartbeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I honestly don't think we flip to plain rain. Ive seen this setup over and over again. I do think we taint for a period but this should primarily be a wintry event for most 40+ miles N/NW of the city. Ill take 6-10" with a crusty layer in a heartbeat! This is crazy talk... Lol, id take 6" then A flip to rain idc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I honestly don't think we flip to plain rain. Ive seen this setup over and over again. I do think we taint for a period but this should primarily be a wintry event for most 40+ miles N/NW of the city. Ill take 6-10" with a crusty layer in a heartbeat! I do favor a nice from end thump then a flip to sleet. From there it really depends on the track of the low. If it goes over you or to your west, you will change to rain then possibly dry slot before flipping to a period of snow before it ends. If this ends up even further west it will be a decent front end to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The arctic air will be hard to erode and if the system ends up being less amped, cold air at surface will stick around until an eventual switch to liquid. Ideal would be a track east of is, but if not, I would be ok with an overhead track featuring a front end dump to ice, to light rain or drizzle, dry slot, back end snow showers. If the system gets in quicker, the added WAA snow would be nice. Would be fine with a crusty 6 inches of snow that settles a bit layered by a half inch of fluff at the end. The pure wintry scene will be nice. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The arctic air will be hard to erode, and if the system ends up being less amped, cold air at surface will stick around until an eventual switch to liquid. Ideal would be a track east of is, but if not, I would be ok with an overhead track featuring a front end dump to ice, to light rain or drizzle, dry slot, back end snow showers. If the system gets in quicker, the added WAA snow would be nice. Would be fine with a crusty 6 inches of snow that settles a bit layered by a half inch of fluff at the end. The pure wintry scene will be nice. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The arctic air will be hard to erode and if the system ends up being less amped, cold air at surface will stick around until an eventual switch to liquid. Ideal would be a track east of is, but if not, I would be ok with an overhead track featuring a front end dump to ice, to light rain or drizzle, dry slot, back end snow showers. If the system gets in quicker, the added WAA snow would be nice. Would be fine with a crusty 6 inches of snow that settles a bit layered by a half inch of fluff at the end. The pure wintry scene will be nice. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk At this point the key for a larger snowstorm for you guys is a less amped system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 At this point the key for a larger snowstorm for you guys is a less amped system. The largest snowfall I've had all season is 1.6". We'll take what we can get up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 At 108 hours, the GFS has the low over Nassau County, while the Euro has it over Elmira, and the GEM has it already up in Maine (though does bring it over Islip at 102 hours). Is the truth somewhere in the middle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 At 108 hours, the GFS has the low over Nassau County, while the Euro has it over Elmira, and the GEM has it already up in Maine (though does bring it over Islip at 102 hours). Is the truth somewhere in the middle? The Euro is skewing everything way to the west. Hope it's out to lunch. Did it have any front end snows? Edit...just checked wunderground and its 1-2" before dryslotting the HV with temps in the upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The JMA seems to align more with the GFS and GEM, at least as far as low positioning goes (though it looks to be a torch aloft). One thing appears certain, this is a juicy system. Every model has a bullseye somewhere of at least 2-3" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The JMA seems to align more with the GFS and GEM, at least as far as low positioning goes (though it looks to be a torch aloft). One thing appears certain, this is a juicy system. Every model has a bullseye somewhere of at least 2-3" of QPF. This has all the ear markings for a western PA / NY clobbering. We should get a few inches of snow/sleet at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's a shame that this record cold airmass is being wasted by lack of snowcover, strong winds, and a warm Lake Ontario. You would have to think if all those things went in our favor, we would be more like -15 to -20, right?Maybe but not sure since its CAA. I've read lots of books that have nothing to do with this but I can't help but think that the lack of a decent snowcover could at least modify it a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Maybe but not sure since its CAA. I've read lots of books that have nothing to do with this but I can't help but think that the lack of a decent snowcover could at least modify it a touch. The snow cover maybe not so much, but check out the 2m temperatures vs the 850 temperatures. Not much difference over central vs eastern NY in the 850's but a big difference in surface temps downwind of Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Are you kidding me. My point and click forecast. Polar Vortex part 3 & 1/2 Tonight Scattered snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -4. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Partly sunny and cold, with a temperature falling to around 2 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -17. Northwest wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -9. Wind chill values as low as -25. Blustery, with a northwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 11. Wind chill values as low as -26. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 5. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Are you kidding me. My point and click forecast. Polar Vortex part 3 & 1/2 Tonight Scattered snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -4. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Partly sunny and cold, with a temperature falling to around 2 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -17. Northwest wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -9. Wind chill values as low as -25. Blustery, with a northwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 11. Wind chill values as low as -26. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 5. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening Were you expecting more snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So the 18z GFS would be nice lol... 8-12" for many here, with little if any changeover, and 2 separate storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 236 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 ...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND... DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-NJZ007>010-012>027-PAZ060>062-070-071- 101>106-131000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WC.Y.0002.160213T2300Z-160214T1400Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET- MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER- WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON... CHESTERTOWN...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE... GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY... JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE... OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND... WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON... MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER... KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN... LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 236 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY, A LARGE PORTION OF MARYLAND`S EASTERN SHORE AS WELL AS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTION OF DELAWARE. * WIND CHILL...10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO NEARLY 40 MPH. * TIMING...WIND CHILLS WILL BEGIN TO DROP TO DANGEROUS LEVELS LATE SATURDAY WITH THE COLDEST VALUES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL SLOWLY EASE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...WIND CHILL VALUES POTENTIALLY REACHING DANGEROUS LEVELS. THE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA IF CARE IS NOT TAKEN TO STAY WARM AND SHELTERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. && $$ Well, Mount Holly took our advice from earlier this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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