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Summer Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2016


snywx

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As of right now BGM-MSV are in for a big time snowstorm. Hopefully we can get this over ISP instead of NYC

 

Probably not even that, especially for the western parts of this subforum, maybe 50 miles would do it. A track over LI as you said earlier. Hopefully the Canadian is on to something with a faster/weaker storm as depicted tonight.

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Probably not even that, especially for the western parts of this subforum, maybe 50 miles would do it. A track over LI as you said earlier. Hopefully the Canadian is on to something with a faster/weaker storm as depicted tonight.

Agreed. I was including everyone from this side to the CT/NY border.

 

As the birds fly MSV is 20 miles to my NW

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Subtle changes in the Euro. At hour 120, it has a 985 low over Scranton. On the 12z run, it was 979 over Syracuse. Still a ways to go but a decent shift east. Snow also moves in a bit quicker and verbatim gives 2-3" on the front end for many in here. Juicy run, too, much of Central NY is 3-4" QPF. 

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Subtle changes in the Euro. At hour 120, it has a 985 low over Scranton. On the 12z run, it was 979 over Syracuse. Still a ways to go but a decent shift east. Snow also moves in a bit quicker and verbatim gives 2-3" on the front end for many in here. Juicy run, too, much of Central NY is 3-4" QPF. 

 

Looks like all guidance shifted E. Lets see if we can get another shift over the weekend. Cant remember the last time the western side of our forum was favored over the eastern side lol..

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Looks like all guidance shifted E. Lets see if we can get another shift over the weekend. Cant remember the last time the western side of our forum was favored over the eastern side lol..

 

Read this earlier tonight from one of the mets in the NE forum and thought it was interesting. Basically every model has trended east and faster tonight (after he posted this) which would back up his point. Hopefully these trends continue.

 

I disagree.

 

I don't like the teleconections for a cutter at all. I fully expect the models to have this flatten out and slide more ENE/NE as it approaches the east coast with time. 

 

PNA to fall and decrease to negative, AO to increase to positive and NAO to increase to positive as we trend closer to the event...All spells a more strung out/less amped and faster solution...

 

There's no blocking, but a +NAO is great for inhibiting developing waves along the east coast, with much faster westerlies.

 
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Probably not even that, especially for the western parts of this subforum, maybe 50 miles would do it. A track over LI as you said earlier. Hopefully the Canadian is on to something with a faster/weaker storm as depicted tonight.

I like 75-100 miles better.

 

Agreed. I was including everyone from this side to the CT/NY border.

 

As the birds fly MSV is 20 miles to my NW

Thank you  B)

 

Looks like all guidance shifted E. Lets see if we can get another shift over the weekend. Cant remember the last time the western side of our forum was favored over the eastern side lol..

Told ya that was gonna happen yesterday didn't I.

 

I like that quote from jbenedet above. 

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Water temps have cooled a bit now, and will even more over the next few days, so the early week storm should have a better chance to slide out rather than turn up the coast and inland like has been shown the last few days.  Around here it's usually (not always correctly) referred to as lack of blocking.  I'm not a modelologist.

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Upton forecasting -6 here for Sunday morning, I'll be impressed if it happens considering no snowcover here.

 

It's a shame that this record cold airmass is being wasted by lack of snowcover, strong winds, and a warm Lake Ontario. You would have to think if all those things went in our favor, we would be more like -15 to -20, right?

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I find it interesting that there's such a wide range of values for wind chill warnings. Does it make a difference to your skin if you live in Maine or South Carolina?

wcwrng.jpg

I think it makes a difference what you're used to. Forty is cold for people down south; 20 would be torture.

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I find it interesting that there's such a wide range of values for wind chill warnings. Does it make a difference to your skin if you live in Maine or South Carolina?

wcwrng.jpg

It gets even less as you go farther south. It's a matter of adaptation and what kind of weather you're used to. It's like how a 55° night in July feels cold, where as if it went into the 50s now we'd be dressed lightly and it would feel very warm.

All of NJ is -25° so Mount Holly should without a doubt have Morris County under an advisory or warning.

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I think it makes a difference what you're used to. Forty is cold for people down south; 20 would be torture.

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It gets even less as you go farther south. It's a matter of adaptation and what kind of weather you're used to. It's like how a 55° night in July feels cold, where as if it went into the 50s now we'd be dressed lightly and it would feel very warm.

All of NJ is -25° so Mount Holly should without a doubt have Morris County under an advisory or warning.

 

The human body is nowhere near as efficient at cold adaptation as it is at heat adaptation. Just not as many mechanisms available. I don't really buy that excuse. Cold is cold. 

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The human body is nowhere near as efficient at cold adaptation as it is at heat adaptation. Just not as many mechanisms available. I don't really buy that excuse. Cold is cold.

Yes but it still can adapt to the cold over time, even if it's minor. Take someone from Miami and bring them here during this cold snap, and they would do a lot worse than someone from Minnesota who would laugh at this.

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The human body is nowhere near as efficient at cold adaptation as it is at heat adaptation. Just not as many mechanisms available. I don't really buy that excuse. Cold is cold.

People who live in FL can't stand 40 degree weather; they complain it's too cold. A NYer sees it as a nice, brisk day, especially if the sun is out. Location and perception, I think, do matter.

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Yes but it still can adapt to the cold over time, even if it's minor. Take someone from Miami and bring them here during this cold snap, and they would do a lot worse than someone from Minnesota who would laugh at this.

 

Will they think it's colder than someone from NY? Sure, but how the body "feels" cold is a totally different phenomenon than how the body develops frostbite. That's the difference I'm trying to point out here. Someone from Florida will not get frostbite at a higher temperature than someone from NY.  

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GFS is a solid front end dump for western sub, and far north

 

Also shows decent backend snows, which hardly ever work out for many of us. Does look like the initial overrunning gets in here quicker, which is often the case with these types of systems. Regardless, it still gets washed away by rain. 

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