chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 #STFU16 From single digits Monday morning to a driving rainstorm 24 hours later. That's as close to STFU as it comes from Mother Nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 From single digits Monday morning to a driving rainstorm 24 hours later. That's as close to STFU as it comes from Mother Nature.I'm betting we get dry slotted, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nice shift E by both the GFS & GGEM tonight. GGEM is close to a crush job for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nice shift E by both the GFS & GGEM tonight. GGEM is close to a crush job for us. GGEM would be 2+" LE front end dump, heavy sleet, back end dump... I'd take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 GGEM would be 2+" LE front end dump, heavy sleet, back end dump... I'd take it As of right now BGM-MSV are in for a big time snowstorm. Hopefully we can get this over ISP instead of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 As of right now BGM-MSV are in for a big time snowstorm. Hopefully we can get this over ISP instead of NYC Yup. Rooting for you guys. Further east gets me a little front end too. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Let's do this big interior bomb. You guys need it and so do I. Let's get the trees open in Vermont. So many sick trails sitting dormant do to lack of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 As of right now BGM-MSV are in for a big time snowstorm. Hopefully we can get this over ISP instead of NYC Probably not even that, especially for the western parts of this subforum, maybe 50 miles would do it. A track over LI as you said earlier. Hopefully the Canadian is on to something with a faster/weaker storm as depicted tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Probably not even that, especially for the western parts of this subforum, maybe 50 miles would do it. A track over LI as you said earlier. Hopefully the Canadian is on to something with a faster/weaker storm as depicted tonight. Agreed. I was including everyone from this side to the CT/NY border. As the birds fly MSV is 20 miles to my NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Subtle changes in the Euro. At hour 120, it has a 985 low over Scranton. On the 12z run, it was 979 over Syracuse. Still a ways to go but a decent shift east. Snow also moves in a bit quicker and verbatim gives 2-3" on the front end for many in here. Juicy run, too, much of Central NY is 3-4" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Subtle changes in the Euro. At hour 120, it has a 985 low over Scranton. On the 12z run, it was 979 over Syracuse. Still a ways to go but a decent shift east. Snow also moves in a bit quicker and verbatim gives 2-3" on the front end for many in here. Juicy run, too, much of Central NY is 3-4" QPF. Looks like all guidance shifted E. Lets see if we can get another shift over the weekend. Cant remember the last time the western side of our forum was favored over the eastern side lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like all guidance shifted E. Lets see if we can get another shift over the weekend. Cant remember the last time the western side of our forum was favored over the eastern side lol.. Read this earlier tonight from one of the mets in the NE forum and thought it was interesting. Basically every model has trended east and faster tonight (after he posted this) which would back up his point. Hopefully these trends continue. I disagree. I don't like the teleconections for a cutter at all. I fully expect the models to have this flatten out and slide more ENE/NE as it approaches the east coast with time. PNA to fall and decrease to negative, AO to increase to positive and NAO to increase to positive as we trend closer to the event...All spells a more strung out/less amped and faster solution... There's no blocking, but a +NAO is great for inhibiting developing waves along the east coast, with much faster westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Probably not even that, especially for the western parts of this subforum, maybe 50 miles would do it. A track over LI as you said earlier. Hopefully the Canadian is on to something with a faster/weaker storm as depicted tonight. I like 75-100 miles better. Agreed. I was including everyone from this side to the CT/NY border. As the birds fly MSV is 20 miles to my NW Thank you Looks like all guidance shifted E. Lets see if we can get another shift over the weekend. Cant remember the last time the western side of our forum was favored over the eastern side lol.. Told ya that was gonna happen yesterday didn't I. I like that quote from jbenedet above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 People put too much weight in 06/18z model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Water temps have cooled a bit now, and will even more over the next few days, so the early week storm should have a better chance to slide out rather than turn up the coast and inland like has been shown the last few days. Around here it's usually (not always correctly) referred to as lack of blocking. I'm not a modelologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 8 degrees for the low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 5 degrees for the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Zero this am as a low, currently 5 above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Upton forecasting -6 here for Sunday morning, I'll be impressed if it happens considering no snowcover here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Upton forecasting -6 here for Sunday morning, I'll be impressed if it happens considering no snowcover here. It's a shame that this record cold airmass is being wasted by lack of snowcover, strong winds, and a warm Lake Ontario. You would have to think if all those things went in our favor, we would be more like -15 to -20, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I love how Mount Holly just excludes Morris County in the Wind Chill Advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I love how Mount Holly just excludes Morris County in the Wind Chill Advisories. I find it interesting that there's such a wide range of values for wind chill warnings. Does it make a difference to your skin if you live in Maine or South Carolina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I find it interesting that there's such a wide range of values for wind chill warnings. Does it make a difference to your skin if you live in Maine or South Carolina? I think it makes a difference what you're used to. Forty is cold for people down south; 20 would be torture. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I find it interesting that there's such a wide range of values for wind chill warnings. Does it make a difference to your skin if you live in Maine or South Carolina? It gets even less as you go farther south. It's a matter of adaptation and what kind of weather you're used to. It's like how a 55° night in July feels cold, where as if it went into the 50s now we'd be dressed lightly and it would feel very warm. All of NJ is -25° so Mount Holly should without a doubt have Morris County under an advisory or warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think it makes a difference what you're used to. Forty is cold for people down south; 20 would be torture. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk It gets even less as you go farther south. It's a matter of adaptation and what kind of weather you're used to. It's like how a 55° night in July feels cold, where as if it went into the 50s now we'd be dressed lightly and it would feel very warm. All of NJ is -25° so Mount Holly should without a doubt have Morris County under an advisory or warning. The human body is nowhere near as efficient at cold adaptation as it is at heat adaptation. Just not as many mechanisms available. I don't really buy that excuse. Cold is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The human body is nowhere near as efficient at cold adaptation as it is at heat adaptation. Just not as many mechanisms available. I don't really buy that excuse. Cold is cold. Yes but it still can adapt to the cold over time, even if it's minor. Take someone from Miami and bring them here during this cold snap, and they would do a lot worse than someone from Minnesota who would laugh at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The human body is nowhere near as efficient at cold adaptation as it is at heat adaptation. Just not as many mechanisms available. I don't really buy that excuse. Cold is cold. People who live in FL can't stand 40 degree weather; they complain it's too cold. A NYer sees it as a nice, brisk day, especially if the sun is out. Location and perception, I think, do matter. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yes but it still can adapt to the cold over time, even if it's minor. Take someone from Miami and bring them here during this cold snap, and they would do a lot worse than someone from Minnesota who would laugh at this. Will they think it's colder than someone from NY? Sure, but how the body "feels" cold is a totally different phenomenon than how the body develops frostbite. That's the difference I'm trying to point out here. Someone from Florida will not get frostbite at a higher temperature than someone from NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS is a solid front end dump for western sub, and far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS is a solid front end dump for western sub, and far north Also shows decent backend snows, which hardly ever work out for many of us. Does look like the initial overrunning gets in here quicker, which is often the case with these types of systems. Regardless, it still gets washed away by rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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