hudsonvalley21 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 .3" this morning, bringing my season total to 5.1". Right where I want to be, the second half of winter will be rocking! Have you guys seen the GFS at hour 417??? Phenomenal! Lock it up Had a dusting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Looks like a bit of a mesolow over western CT with some enhanced snow there. Still snowing lightly here on the backside of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 2.3" new, very happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 2.3" new, very happy with that. How the mighty in the HV have fallen. I guess if you starve people long enough even Broccoli might taste good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Next week still looks interesting. Euro has the big rain storm on Tuesday but definitely some spread on the ensembles. GEFS has a similar type of system, though not as warm (50's vs 30's). It'd be quite the turnaround to go from possible single digit highs on Sunday to the 50's a couple days later. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/poughkeepsie-ny/12601/daily-weather-forecast/329668?day=25 Hopefully we get something, even if its rain. Sure its not dry out but we are still below normal for precipitation. 2.3" new, very happy with that. As you should be. I was just thinking how cool it would be to have a 2-4" event this season. Pretty sad. On the plus side, my driveway has yet to be shoveled or plowed this season, so all of the stone is still right where it belongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 0.4" here.. Cant believe im actually logging this event smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 .3" here, Bringing my YTD TO A WHOOPING 2.9"!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I love how every forcast for this winter has been nearly opposite.... Every outlook I saw called for slightly above normal or at normal temps, with above normal precip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 About an inch of fluff for me at 6 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Next week still looks interesting. Euro has the big rain storm on Tuesday but definitely some spread on the ensembles. GEFS has a similar type of system, though not as warm (50's vs 30's). It'd be quite the turnaround to go from possible single digit highs on Sunday to the 50's a couple days later. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/poughkeepsie-ny/12601/daily-weather-forecast/329668?day=25 Another classic GFS 12z run, if I had to bet I would bet that over the Euro at this point but that's strictly based on the seasonal trend to have precip miss this area, which I find fascinating more than anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Another classic GFS 12z run, if I had to bet I would bet that over the Euro at this point but that's strictly based on the seasonal trend to have precip miss this area, which I find fascinating more than anything at this point. Looking at the map you posted above, it feels like more than a seasonal trend, right? I think we've consistently under performed compared to the models dating back to at least last spring, perhaps even further. How accurate is the precipitation data from KPOU? Looking at the last 2 years, it looks like last year was -16" and 2014 was -12". It seems accurate if you look at the HPRCC map for 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I had dandruff . Don't even think it was .2 . Not even worth trying to measure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Looking at the map you posted above, it feels like more than a seasonal trend, right? I think we've consistently under performed compared to the models dating back to at least last spring, perhaps even further. How accurate is the precipitation data from KPOU? Looking at the last 2 years, it looks like last year was -16" and 2014 was -12". It seems accurate if you look at the HPRCC map for 2015. Its been dry relative to normal for a while now. Here are a few other maps of different time frames for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Well, the bit of snow and white landscape was nice. We torch next week with a rainer and start all over again thereafter. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 18z GFS.. This is exactly what we need.. Do we get it though? Hr 141 & 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Looking at the map you posted above, it feels like more than a seasonal trend, right? I think we've consistently under performed compared to the models dating back to at least last spring, perhaps even further. How accurate is the precipitation data from KPOU? Looking at the last 2 years, it looks like last year was -16" and 2014 was -12". It seems accurate if you look at the HPRCC map for 2015. I'm not sure about their precip data but their snowfall data is horrible. Their past measurements make some of the zookeeper totals of the past look like precision scientific measurements in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 6 days away. We deserve this, but I'm not counting on it. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016021018/gfs_asnow_neus_28.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Hope this works for you guys , you`ve been skunked so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Hope this works for you guys , you`ve been skunked so far If I were a betting man, I'd bet against us at this point, with the western trend being reasonable this year, 7+ days out, I'm expecting to be raining with the rest of the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 If I were a betting man, I'd bet against us at this point, with the western trend being reasonable this year, 7+ days out, I'm expecting to be raining with the rest of the coast Looks like Dec 27 2012. I rained on the north shore of LI at 33 with my 850s at 0 a BM track and a NE wind There was a sneaky layer ato 925 that killed me. Same map. CT got a ft. See how you guys did we that storm. If it stays as it off course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The Euro with its center up over the top of the apps is wrong. It will come up the E side. But the coast may not be able to hold onto the cold air. You guys might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 If I were a betting man, I'd bet against us at this point, with the western trend being reasonable this year, 7+ days out, I'm expecting to be raining with the rest of the coast Its actually 5.5 days away.. But I agree with you. The west trend is undeniable this yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Its actually 5.5 days away.. But I agree with you. The west trend is undeniable this yr I meant within 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Regardless of whether it snows, it's a breath of fresh air to worry about p-type instead of p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Regardless of whether it snows, it's a breath of fresh air to worry about p-type instead of p. This! Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I kinda miss yanks PBP, seeing "wow, interior crush job this run" "LHV jackpot" etc etc I'm a greedy weather fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 HM, among others, was commenting on this threat on Twitter and thinks the upstream clipper might influence the ultimate track and cause it to go more on the east side of the present track. But, to this point, we're measuring our rain this winter in inches and our snow in dustings and traces so I'm not holding my breath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Minimal cutter action on the 18z GFS ensembles, with strong support for a big low of some sort. I'm feelin' this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Minimal cutter action on the 18z GFS ensembles, with strong support for a big low of some sort. I'm feelin' this threat. Mean QPF on the plumes is close to 1.5" for POU with several members above 2". Surface temps never rise above the low 30's. Let's hope the evolution on the GEFS is closer to reality than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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