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Summer Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2016


snywx

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Next week still looks interesting. Euro has the big rain storm on Tuesday but definitely some spread on the ensembles. GEFS has a similar type of system, though not as warm (50's vs 30's). It'd be quite the turnaround to go from possible single digit highs on Sunday to the 50's a couple days later. 

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/poughkeepsie-ny/12601/daily-weather-forecast/329668?day=25

 

Hopefully we get something, even if its rain.  Sure its not dry out but we are still below normal for precipitation. 

90dPDeptNRCC.png

 

2.3" new, very happy with that.

As you should be.  I was just thinking how cool it would be to have a 2-4" event this season.  Pretty sad.  On the plus side, my driveway has yet to be shoveled or plowed this season, so all of the stone is still right where it belongs.  

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Next week still looks interesting. Euro has the big rain storm on Tuesday but definitely some spread on the ensembles. GEFS has a similar type of system, though not as warm (50's vs 30's). It'd be quite the turnaround to go from possible single digit highs on Sunday to the 50's a couple days later. 

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/poughkeepsie-ny/12601/daily-weather-forecast/329668?day=25

Another classic GFS 12z run, if I had to bet I would bet that over the Euro at this point but that's strictly based on the seasonal trend to have precip miss this area, which I find fascinating more than anything at this point.  

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Another classic GFS 12z run, if I had to bet I would bet that over the Euro at this point but that's strictly based on the seasonal trend to have precip miss this area, which I find fascinating more than anything at this point.  

 

Looking at the map you posted above, it feels like more than a seasonal trend, right? I think we've consistently under performed compared to the models dating back to at least last spring, perhaps even further. 

 

How accurate is the precipitation data from KPOU? Looking at the last 2 years, it looks like last year was -16" and 2014 was -12".  It seems accurate if you look at the HPRCC map for 2015.

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Looking at the map you posted above, it feels like more than a seasonal trend, right? I think we've consistently under performed compared to the models dating back to at least last spring, perhaps even further. 

 

How accurate is the precipitation data from KPOU? Looking at the last 2 years, it looks like last year was -16" and 2014 was -12".  It seems accurate if you look at the HPRCC map for 2015.

Its been dry relative to normal for a while now.  Here are a few other maps of different time frames for reference.

6mPDeptNRCC.png

 

12mPDeptNRCC.png

24mPDeptNRCC.png

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Looking at the map you posted above, it feels like more than a seasonal trend, right? I think we've consistently under performed compared to the models dating back to at least last spring, perhaps even further. 

 

How accurate is the precipitation data from KPOU? Looking at the last 2 years, it looks like last year was -16" and 2014 was -12".  It seems accurate if you look at the HPRCC map for 2015.

 

I'm not sure about their precip data but their snowfall data is horrible. Their past measurements make some of the zookeeper totals of the past look like precision scientific measurements in comparison.

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If I were a betting man, I'd bet against us at this point, with the western trend being reasonable this year, 7+ days out, I'm expecting to be raining with the rest of the coast

Looks like Dec 27 2012.

I rained on the north shore of LI at 33 with my 850s at 0 a BM track and a NE wind

There was a sneaky layer ato 925 that killed me.

Same map. CT got a ft. See how you guys did we that storm.

If it stays as it off course.

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HM, among others, was commenting on this threat on Twitter and thinks the upstream clipper might influence the ultimate track and cause it to go more on the east side of the present track. But, to this point, we're measuring our rain this winter in inches and our snow in dustings and traces so I'm not holding my breath!

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Minimal cutter action on the 18z GFS ensembles, with strong support for a big low of some sort. I'm feelin' this threat.

 

 

Mean QPF on the plumes is close to 1.5" for POU with several members above 2". Surface temps never rise above the low 30's. Let's hope the evolution on the GEFS is closer to reality than the Euro.

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