snywx Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 There's a decent band modeled on the western edge of the precipitation shield which leads to those totals. We'll have to see if that actually sets up, and if it does, where. You can see it from Orange County down through Central NJ here tomorrow morning. There is always that one band at the western edge of the precip shield. Hopefully this is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Scattered flurries might be the way to go for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Shafted by both the ocean storm and Norlun , just wonderful lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 At least the Euro has something for you in the later range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 At least the Euro has something for you in the later range.Funny how snowstorms never verify far out, but a rainstorm will be nailed two weeks out. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Funny how snowstorms never verify far out, but a rainstorm will be nailed two weeks out. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk There's good reason for it, though. The biggest snowstorms occur in a relatively narrow swath on the NW side of rapidly maturing coastal lows, with plenty of cold air around. On the other hand, we can rain in any section of any storm, with basically any track east of the Mississippi, in any air mass that isn't freshly arctic. If the models completely botch a progged cutter over Michigan, and it shifts 400 miles in either direction, we still torch and rain. If the trajectory of a cold nor'easter is anything less than perfect, we can get shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 There's good reason for it, though. The biggest snowstorms occur in a relatively narrow swath on the NW side of rapidly maturing coastal lows, with plenty of cold air around. On the other hand, we can rain in any section of any storm, with basically any track east of the Mississippi, in any air mass that isn't freshly arctic. If the models completely botch a progged cutter over Michigan, and it shifts 400 miles in either direction, we still torch and rain. If the trajectory of a snowy nor'easter is anything less than perfect, we can get shafted.Oh I know this, I was just playing the "it figures" card. Your explanation by the way could not have been articulated better! Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Guys our average snow is 40-50 inches. I cannot imagine we go through the rest of the winter without at least getting to half that point given the pattern moving forward. Even if we reach only 25 inches, we still need a couple of storms to give us a foot average or 4 storms to give us 6 inches average. Despite our bad luck so far, I do believe we will whiten up before winter is done. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Guys our average snow is 40-50 inches. I cannot imagine we go through the rest of the winter without at least getting to half that point given the pattern moving forward. Even if we reach only 25 inches, we still need a couple of storms to give us a foot average or 4 storms to give us 6 inches average. Despite our bad luck so far, I do believe we will whiten up before winter is done. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk If it wasn't for the snowstorm in October 2011, the 11-12 winter would have had less than half of the seasonal average IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If it wasn't for the snowstorm in October 2011, the 11-12 winter would have had less than half of the seasonal average IMBY.It is a very possible we may not even crack 6 inches, but I do believe we have at least one moderate snow event ahead. If not and we stay bare ground, as they say in sports, there's always next year. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If it wasn't for the snowstorm in October 2011, the 11-12 winter would have had less than half of the seasonal average IMBY. Without that October storm I would have ended with less than 6" that winter. As for this one, all I've got so far is wind and dark grey skies. It looks like it's darker off to my SE though so maybe it will back in as the day progresses. My point and click says 2-4" during the day today. I just need my flight to get out on time tomorrow morning for that interview in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It is a very possible we may not even crack 6 inches, but I do believe we have at least one moderate snow event ahead. If not and we stay bare ground, as they say in sports, there's always next year. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Yeah, we'll see. I'm not saying one way or the other what may happen, just along for the ride. Without that October storm I would have ended with less than 6" that winter. As for this one, all I've got so far is wind and dark grey skies. It looks like it's darker off to my SE though so maybe it will back in as the day progresses. My point and click says 2-4" during the day today. I just need my flight to get out on time tomorrow morning for that interview in IL. If you subtract the October snow, not that we can, I had 11.5" that season. My completely uninformed guess is that your flight will be fine and best of luck to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The problem with this storm is what I've been stressing for 3 days now.. While everyone was fixated on the monster to come "west"... It in turn is Now gonna screw us on the IVT as well, a stronger, near miss coastal, is forcing the IVT to form further south, and not allowing the ULL to deepen, build better heights, and ride the coast... Literally worst case scenario for this set-up is what happened lol Good OL winter of 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The problem with this storm is what I've been stressing for 3 days now.. While everyone was fixated on the monster to come "west"... It in turn is Now gonna screw us on the IVT as well, a stronger, near miss coastal, is forcing the IVT to form further south, and not allowing the ULL to deepen, build better heights, and ride the coast... Literally worst case scenario for this set-up is what happened lol Good OL winter of 16 Nature is finding every possible way not to snow around here this year. Never would have thought for a second this past Fall it would be playing out like this so far. It has to change eventually. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Flurries started a little while ago and quickly went to S-, flake size is small though and the winds is steady out of the N/NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Accuweather.com says snow, heavy at times, starts in 81 minutes...so I have that going for me, which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Accuweather.com says snow, heavy at times, starts in 81 minutes...so I have that going for me, which is nice. I dont think the heavy stuff is gonna come down for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 ^^ ZZZap! Snow is getting heavier and the wind is shifting to the SSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I dont think the heavy stuff is gonna come down for quite awhile. Yeah, I'm gonna keep playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Accuweather.com says snow, heavy at times, starts in 81 minutes...so I have that going for me, which is nice. My Accuweather app had me in "heavy snow" for several hours during the blizzard. I never saw a flake. I don't think it takes dry air into the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 My Accuweather app had me in "heavy snow" for several hours during the blizzard. I never saw a flake. I don't think it takes basic meteorology into the equation. Fixed that for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Fixed that for ya. Yeah, its some garbled computer generated crap that we all know is unreliable but he general public doesn't. As a result, IMO, forecasting gets an even worse rep from the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yeah, I'm gonna keep playing. Fore, I should have yelled Two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Fore, I should have yelled Two Wait are you still quoting the movie or the snow totals for the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wait are you still quoting the movie or the snow totals for the season? I've got a pool and a pond, the pond would be good for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Dooodeee Nice steady accumulating snow going on. Nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Dooodeee Nice steady accumulating snow going on. Nice day. I don't remember what that looks like. Please elaborate Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Sun has been peeking through here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Sun has been peeking through here.. Not under the triboro it hasnt. Come bring me snacks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Not under the triboro it hasnt. Come bring me snacks. Lol lol.. Walk your butt to the lot! The guy in the cart has good snacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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