rgwp96 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Sickening hearing how eastern LI is going to get dumped on while we watch again. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk It will be more sickening as this comes west a bit more and even gives NYC and central nj decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It will be more sickening as this comes west a bit more and even gives NYC and central nj decent snowIf we strike out each time, so be it. Time to stop hoping. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 There's still time for one of the upper level impulses in the broader trough to trend toward something a little more meaningful. Hopefully that's the case, as it seems increasingly likely that the Norlun trough would be our best chance at accumulating snow (which is never a particularly good bet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 One thing is for sure is that if it were reversed and we were getting nailed repeatedly and the folks South and East had rain storm after storm, this entire forum would be in such an uproar to shut it down. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 One thing is for sure is that if it were reversed and we were getting nailed repeatedly and the folks South and East had rain storm after storm, this entire forum would be in such an uproar to shut it down. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk I would be frustrated, but I wouldn't let it bother me that much. I like Summer way better than Winter, and I've watched tons of T-Storms miss me by miles. Weather is weather and it will do what it wants regardless of what we want it to. This week has some chances for us all, and next weekend looks very cold. We still have plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I would be frustrated, but I wouldn't let it bother me that much. I like Summer way better than Winter, and I've watched tons of T-Storms miss me by miles. It sucks, but it's not worth gettting mad about. Weather is weather and it will do what it wants regardless of what we want it to. This week has some chances for us all, and next weekend looks very cold. We still have plenty of time I apologize for my ranting. But, it's just been shaft city up here for too long. I just love snow too much and I wish I didn't. I am such a weenie. Can't control it, I know and I need to let it go. It is fascinating to watch what is happening right now from a met perspective with so many players. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I apologize for my ranting. But, it's just been shaft city up here for too long. I just love snow too much and I wish I didn't. I am such a weenie. Can't control it, I know and I need to let it go. It is fascinating to watch what is happening right now from a met perspective with so many players. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Get in your car and become a snow chaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I apologize for my ranting. But, it's just been shaft city up here for too long. I just love snow too much and I wish I didn't. I am such a weenie. Can't control it, I know and I need to let it go. It is fascinating to watch what is happening right now from a met perspective with so many players. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk It's fine. I'm not a big Winter fan like I said, so it wouldn't be as big a deal for me as it is for you to not have snow. Hopefully you do end up getting a nice storm to enjoy up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Get in your car and become a snow chaserI have thought about that seriously Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 I have thought about that seriously Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk It always evens out.. Most of us average 45-60" for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z GGEM & UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z GGEM & UKMET I'll take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The CMC shows exactly what I wanted to see (what else is new?!): a more potent s/w that triggers some appreciable cyclogenesis, as opposed to just a tenuous inverted trough. Given that the CMC has a notorious pro-cyclogenesis bias, though, I'm not too optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Right now my thinking is 1-3" for the HV. If an IVT does set up and park overhead then 6" amounts are not out of the question. I have no idea why soo many are hung up on this coastal. We need a drastic shift to have any major effects from it even for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Right now my thinking is 1-3" for the HV. If an IVT does set up and park overhead then 6" amounts are not out of the question. I have no idea why soo many are hung up on this coastal. We need a drastic shift to have any major effects from it even for LI. Looking at all layers, snow growth and ratios should be substantially better than 10:1, if the GGEM or ukmet were to verify, someone in the LHV is gettin 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking at all layers, snow growth and ratios should be substantially better than 10:1, if the GGEM or ukmet were to verify, someone in the LHV is gettin 6-10 Surface in the low to mid 20s w/ 850s around -8 or so is def ideal for awesome snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z NAM (12k) @ hr57 has a 997lp tucked right along the NJ coast near Belmar. Snowing nicely in the area at that hour. 12z had this further east & weaker at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z nam is 5-8 for everyone here with ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Temps in the 20's w/ 850s around -7... 12:1 ratios I would guess. Hr 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z nam is 5-8 for everyone here with ratios I'll take that now and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Temps in the 20's w/ 850s around -7... 12:1 ratios I would guess. Hr 57 The DGZ isn't super deep, but it looks well-placed for some very good ratios, at least if you believe the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18Z GFS says south and east is jackpot for IVT. Somehow imagine this is how it will play out. Less N&W, more S&E, rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18Z GFS says south and east is jackpot for IVT. Somehow imagine this is how it will play out. Less N&W, more S&E, rinse, repeat.Get used to it. It's the new norm. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Amazing how much potential there is/was in this pattern yet we still can't snow. At this rate I hope we can atleast have an explosive last 6 weeks of winter to reach average or finish out below 10".. Either way it will be historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Get used to it. It's the new norm. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk This is a year like no other no doubt, but I don't think it's a new norm. The HV should still get their 45-65 inches of snow most years, what has changed however is regions that never saw those types of seasonal snowfall annually are now joining the party, especially LI and coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Broncos ftw! Snow ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Finally some real cold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 03z HRRR gives most us 1-3" by tomorrow 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 03z HRRR gives most us 1-3" by tomorrow 1pm Hard to believe, but I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 03z HRRR gives most us 1-3" by tomorrow 1pm There's a decent band modeled on the western edge of the precipitation shield which leads to those totals. We'll have to see if that actually sets up, and if it does, where. You can see it from Orange County down through Central NJ here tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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