White Gorilla Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Andddd just like that, our storm for next turns into another city special, fringe Job... Guaranteed hat verifys the way things have been latelyIf that happens, that's it. I am done. It can be 80 and sunny the rest of the year until October. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Andddd just like that, our storm for next turns into another city special, fringe Job... Guaranteed hat verifys the way things have been lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The Canadian ensembles at 150 snow here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The laws of probability by themselves I guess dictate that eventually it has to work out for interior snows... Just don't know when that will be. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Hard to argue about probabilities when there has literally been one snowstorm all winter and it only narrowly missed the northern part of the region. It's not like storm after storm has missed us. The general pattern has not been conducive to snow no matter where one resides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Hard to argue about probabilities when there has literally been one snowstorm all winter and it only narrowly missed the northern part of the region. It's not like storm after storm has missed us. The general pattern has not been conducive to snow no matter where one resides.True, but we have been in a prolonged multi year pattern that has favored coastal snow vs interior snow, even though we have had good snowpack the last two winters just due to mere frequency of storms those years. I am just waiting for the coin to flip to an interior snow jackpot pattern. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 True, but we have been in a prolonged multi year pattern that has favored coastal snow vs interior snow, even though we have had good snowpack the last two winters just due to mere frequency of storms those years. I am just waiting for the coin to flip to an interior snow jackpot pattern. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk We'll always have Paris October 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 True, but we have been in a prolonged multi year pattern that has favored coastal snow vs interior snow, even though we have had good snowpack the last two winters just due to mere frequency of storms those years. I am just waiting for the coin to flip to an interior snow jackpot pattern. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk If you're feeling snakebitten, you should probably steer clear of todays Euro. Nonetheless, good to see a threat emerging on most of the models in the 2/8-9 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 We'll always have Paris October 2011Also the day before Thanksgiving 2014. It's the only storm I can remember in recent history where the coast had rain and we snowed. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 We'll always have Paris October 2011Kind of a shaft here compared to the higher elevations of duchess. Maybe 10" where I think millbrook had almost 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 If you're feeling snakebitten, you should probably steer clear of todays Euro. Nonetheless, good to see a threat emerging on most of the models in the 2/8-9 time frame.Yes, I think the potential is high. We should never take models literally from this far out... Easier said than done. The larger synoptics and teleconnections look favorable for now as we will be right on the boundary between large temperature differences. Just need good timing and track for pieces of energy to spin something up. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Kind of a shaft here compared to the higher elevations of duchess. Maybe 10" where I think millbrook had almost 20 The 21" Millbrook total has always struck me as a bit suspect. That was one of my last storms before I decided to get serious about snowfall records, so I only measured once when the snow stopped falling, and it was 14". Now, given how ridiculously dense the snowfall was, my 14" would have gone up with six-hourly measurements, but not by an enormous amount - it wasn't a particularly long-lived storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The 21" Millbrook total has always struck me as a bit suspect. That was one of my last storms before I decided to get serious about snowfall records, so I only measured once when the snow stopped falling, and it was 14". Now, given how ridiculously dense the snowfall was, my 14" would have gone up with six-hourly measurements, but not by an enormous amount - it wasn't a particularly long-lived storm. . not used anymore and glad they are stopping it. wish others would follows so the public amounts arent inflated and more in line with nws and cocorahs reports . cocorahs is now using the new(old) nws way which was used years ago. the wiping clean inflates totals to much http://cocorahs.org/...ringSnow2.1.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Well then my total for the last storm would have ended up more like ~5-10" rather than the 15 I came up with measuring(in a couple of different spots) at about 6 hour intervals. Between settling and the outrageous wind that blew whole areas of my property clean in the early and middle parts of the storm if I had only measured once there is no way I could have gotten a decent measurement. The area where I had set up a snow board only had 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Well then my total for the last storm would have ended up more like ~5-10" rather than the 15 I came up with measuring(in a couple of different spots) at about 6 hour intervals. Between settling and the outrageous wind that blew whole areas of my property clean in the early and middle parts of the storm if I had only measured once there is no way I could have gotten a decent measurement. The area where I had set up a snow board only had 2" Don't feel bad, you're not the only one who wasn't measuring properly, there's thousands of others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Don't feel bad, you're not the only one who wasn't measuring properly, there's thousands of others... You start near the tailbone, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 You start near the tailbone, right? I see what you did there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Some nice hits on both the GFS and Euro ensembles for the period early next week. They seem to be favoring the interior for more significant snows. I think we get a better idea how it might play out once the storm in the midwest clears the region over the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Some nice hits on both the GFS and Euro ensembles for the period early next week. They seem to be favoring the interior for more significant snows. I think we get a better idea how it might play out once the storm in the midwest clears the region over the next day or so. How did the Euro Op look for the early week timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Of course we jackpot for tomorrows rain event lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I swear my grass is a hint greener this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I swear my grass is a hint greener this morning. That's one thing that has really struck me about this winter, the grass is so green. It's greener than I remember it being in 2012. Euro OP showed a decent hit for the day 7 system with a coastal hugger. Ensembles have a similar signal with about half of the members showing at least a couple inches of snow, though there is definitely a left leaning group that would translate to an inland runner and congrats BGM. Lots of time to watch this one evolve. Potential is there. Still looking like this cool down will be rather transient though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looking at pictures of cattle in the Midwest blizzard I was reminded of the old Stockman Advisory that the NWS used years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 That's one thing that has really struck me about this winter, the grass is so green. It's greener than I remember it being in 2012. Euro OP showed a decent hit for the day 7 system with a coastal hugger. Ensembles have a similar signal with about half of the members showing at least a couple inches of snow, though there is definitely a left leaning group that would translate to an inland runner and congrats BGM. Lots of time to watch this one evolve. Potential is there. Still looking like this cool down will be rather transient though. Hope thats not thay bad although be careful what you wish for I guess...if it was truly a Hudson Valley jackpot storm though I could imagine seeing a few big wound up inland ensembles way out in advance as well as some out east a week out. That's what it seemed like was missing with total whiffs and fringe jobs like Nemo, Juno, and Jonas. I'm mostly just referring to SWF, POU and NW. A big giant BGM jackpot such as March 2011 would be bad after those though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Good signal and trends so far on 12z suites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Good signal and trends so far on 12z suites For the coast & New England maybe lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 For the coast & New England maybe lol.. Compared to OTS yesterday and still being 6 days out? Not to mention euro shows interior hit for plenty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Compared to OTS yesterday and still being 6 days out? Not to mention euro shows interior hit for plenty I have lost total confidence in the Euro and Miller Bs almost always give NE/ENE the goods. What we need is a coastal hugger or a SWFE with a transfer near S NJ. I miss the days when the dry slot reached LI. Thats long gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I have lost total confidence in the Euro and Miller Bs almost always give NE/ENE the goods. What we need is a coastal hugger or a SWFE with a transfer near S NJ. I miss the days when the dry slot reached LI. Thats long gone Yup, it really sucks having absolutely no idea what to thinK about these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 A lot of time. Just glad there is potential. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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