LaGrangewx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 yea 2014 pretty incredible for here. Haven't had a 2007 inland type crush since then. I believe 1996 was a widespread 2ft maybe closer to 30" up here Lol looks like a little bullseye over dutchess but I've heard that map underestimates totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I've heard that map underestimates totals Are you thinking of the model snowfall maps? Those are often off and can over/under estimate totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lol looks like a little bullseye over dutchess but I've heard that map underestimates totals Yeah theres a different version thats more accurate down here (cant speak for other areas): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Heard people in other threads saying the nesis map was a little deceptive with some totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah theres a different version thats more accurate down here (cant speak for other areas): Oh, I get it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Oh, I get it now. Doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wow looking at it That map is almost identical to several portrayals of this upcoming storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Doubtful. On the weekends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 here is the gem http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GGEM&p=accsnow&rh=2016011912&fh=150&r=ne&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 looks like this is another analog storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 looks like this is another analog storm..That one look like it kind of screws Ulster county...hope not lol. If the ECMWF still is like 100 miles south of the GFS this afternoon I may start to get worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Biggest Euro run of our lives coming up...or something like that BANG BANG, Chicken and Shrimp!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That one look like it kind of screws Ulster county...hope not lol but sounds about right. If the ecmwf still is like 100 miles south of the GFS this afternoon I may start to get worried. Yea.. Euro has not been kind to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GEFS ensembles took a bit of a step backwards for my area this run. Mean QPF is at 0.46" for Poughkeepsie (has been trending down from as high as 0.8" yesterday). About half the members above the mean, and half below. The OP is the extreme outlier at 1.36". It looks like it all hinges on what the storm does at ~100 hours. Some want to keep the low pressure center close to the coast, others pull it ENE. What is the main mechanism driving whether this happens or not? Because the Euro ensembles have been doing the same. We'll have to follow the operational runs as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I do believe warmer SSTs will help this baby stay closer to coast. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yea.. Euro has not been kind to us.[/quote Something's gotta give...especially with GFS and Canadian holding serve this morning. They can't just keep being that far apart 84-96 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yea.. Euro has not been kind to us.[/quote Something's gotta give...especially with GFS and Canadian holding serve this morning. They can't just keep being that far apart 84-96 hours out. They did last year for Juno, almost right until go time. And they really aren't that far apart with this storm. When talking about a storm like this, 30-50 miles one way or the other is pretty minimal. It's just that those 30-50 miles affect us substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Regardless if it stalls down off the VA capes or off S NJ one thing is for certain.. S-C PA is gonna get destroyed. Wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3' amounts near Harrisburg. Unfortunately we need this bad boy to do what the GGEM has been printing and that is tucking it in close to the coast and stalling it off S NJ. I have very little faith in that disaster of a model lol.. My money is on the EC and a modest snowstorm up here. The way this winter is going ill take 6-10" and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Funny, Euro leaves us high and dry. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 My money is on the EC and a modest snowstorm absolute bupkis up here. 12z says "fixed" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 And there it is lol.. Dr. No back to giving a dose of reality 0z tonight should have drastic changes. One way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Either this just a blip or a coup Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 And it's on to the next... maybe? You cant make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just heartbreaking. I'm utterly baffled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/d3A0Uij.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/d3A0Uij.png Well that puts a damper on things, nothing but cirrus around here if this is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/d3A0Uij.png Overcast skies for me! lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Suppression in a super El Nino year..... Wow.... Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If the euro plays out like this it makes last years miss by the euro around here that much more amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I keep telling myself I won't get invested in this storm until 12z (or later) model runs Wednesday. Not gonna believe that image above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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