Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here's a question: would you rather have flurries while 25 miles south has 6" of snow, or have 6" of snow while 25 miles south has 15"? I love snow for snow's sake, so I'd take the 6". I actually tend to feel a little guilty when I jackpot, lol. Looking at the satellite and radar presentation of this storm right now, it's really incredible that it probably won't be pushing much past the lower HV. Yeah, your first thought definitely wouldn't be "whiff" if you just woke up and checked the maps. You can already sort of see how much trouble the WAA precip is having on its poleward surge, though... northern fringe being sheared apart out in the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I love snow for snow's sake, so I'd take the 6". I actually tend to feel a little guilty when I jackpot, lol. Yeah, your first thought definitely wouldn't be "whiff" if you just woke up and checked the maps. You can already sort of see how much trouble the WAA precip is having on its poleward surge, though... northern fringe being sheared apart out in the Ohio Valley. Gut feeling, you think we get any measurable snow up our way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gut feeling, you think we get any measurable snow up our way? My best guess would be no measurable, but I wouldn't be shocked to see something like an inch of tiny snow crystals. I feel there's a greater potential to bust low than high from NYC on north, but we'll see. The SREF mean QPF is 1.5" at KPOU... if we got even a fifth of that, I'd be happy man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Didn't we punt January anyway in favor of Feb and March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Didn't we punt January anyway in favor of Feb and March? It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It appears to me that the northern edge even on the NAM is sinking south over the past few runs. The 12K, the 4K seems to have expanded north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I can't get the NWS site to load, probably too many folks on it right now. I read on Twitter that Rockland County was just switched to a winter weather advisory for 3-6 inches total? Can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I can't get the NWS site to load, probably too many folks on it right now. I read on Twitter that Rockland County was just switched to a winter weather advisory for 3-6 inches total? Can anyone confirm? I don't see that anyplace yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It appears to me that the northern edge even on the NAM is sinking south over the past few runs. The 12K, the 4K seems to have expanded north. Just did a zoom in QPF of the 12k, my house is literally 9" of snow, and my neighbor wayyy up the street could be 5".... Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I don't see that anyplace yet. It appears that Mt Holly just put Sussex in a WWA for 4-6" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It appears to me that the northern edge even on the NAM is sinking south over the past few runs. The 12K, the 4K seems to have expanded north. I called that overnight, that the NAM areal extent would start shifting south. The gradient has really tightened up as well, on all the models. It's very impressive to watch. But you're right, the 4K seems to shift a little north each run. Looking at the sim radars as well as RH values, I still am hard pressed to believe anything makes it north of 84, perhaps at the very end as the low transfers and some leftover moisture pivots around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I can't get the NWS site to load, probably too many folks on it right now. I read on Twitter that Rockland County was just switched to a winter weather advisory for 3-6 inches total? Can anyone confirm? No, warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Mt Holly NWS went with a WWA advisory for 4-6. Issued at 4 PM. If the GFS hold weight later tonight, a warning may be reguired. 18 GFS looked like 10-15 inches locally. I am getting pumped for this storm. Not sure what to expect for a final total, but do expect to crack the 4 inch high water mark. Best up luck to the posters up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Mt Holly NWS went with a WWA advisory for 4-6. Issued at 4 PM. If the GFS hold weight later tonight, a warning may be reguired. 18 GFS looked like 10-15 inches locally. I am getting pumped for this storm. Not sure what to expect for a final todal, but do expect to crack the 4 inch high water mark. Best up luck to the posters up north. Good luck to you too. The GFS trending north certainly doesn't hurt around here but I'm not as far north as some of our other posters. We need the north trend to continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Mt Holly NWS went with a WWA advisory for 4-6. Issued at 4 PM. If the GFS hold weight later tonight, a warning may be reguired. 18 GFS looked like 10-15 inches locally. I am getting pumped for this storm. Not sure what to expect for a final todal, but do expect to crack the 4 inch high water mark. Best up luck to the posters up north. WWA for me in Green Twp is going to bust, both 18Z NAM and GFS would suggest at least 10" and certainly warning criteria. Arbitrary county boundaries are a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 WWA for me in Green Twp is going to bust, both 18Z NAM and GFS would suggest at least 10" and certainly warning criteria. Arbitrary county boundaries are a joke. Northern Passaic County a few miles a crow fly away from my house has a warning for 6-12. I think they wanted to be able to confirm half the county would get six inches prior to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Northern Passaic County a few miles a crow fly away from my house has a warning for 6-12. I think they wanted to be able to confirm half the county would get six inches prior to a warning. I could throw a rock into West Milford from my house, they're 6-12, I'm 4-6". Lol! FWIW Weather Channel mobile says 9-12" for Stockholm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I could throw a rock into West Milford from my house, they're 6-12, I'm 4-6". Lol! FWIW Weather Channel mobile says 9-12" for Stockholm. Going to be a long strange trip for this storm. Totals could vary every few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Weather underground showing 12"+ for what it's worth. Tonight it's showing 3-5" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Still under a winter storm watch...has not been updated to a warning or advisory...getting kinda late to still be under a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 No, warning.Thanks. I guess News 12 met Joe Rayo is not buying much snow getting up to us. He just updated his forecast at 5:50 and he's calling for 2-6 inches total in Rockland, he's less than even the NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Thanks. I guess News 12 met Joe Rayo is not buying much snow getting up to us. He just updated his forecast at 5:50 and he's calling for 2-6 inches total in Rockland, he's less than even the NWS I really think you're going to do well down there. Ulster, where do you find the HRRR that goes that far out on WxBell? What does the RH look like underneath that band in Dutchess and Ulster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I really think you're going to do well down there. Ulster, where do you find the HRRR that goes that far out on WxBell? What does the RH look like underneath that band in Dutchess and Ulster? It's the HRRRX Pretty sure the X stands for extended.. It's goes to 24hrs.. Shows us dumping at 7pm still tomorow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I'm on my way to NYC from New Paltz right now. No way I'm gonna miss this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The dry air is killer. Whatever is showing up on radar here is probably falling as virga. It looks like it might saturate a little more after this frame, but not sure how much help that will be. I was hoping to eek out a few inches with the northerly trends but that isn't looking likely so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I think I'd almost rather have a dignified shutout than know that I spent 10 days tracking 1.4"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I'm very confident this will over perform. The fact that the precip is spreading North at a good clip and is being verified as -sn/flurries shortly after the leading edge on radar is a very good sign. I have seen many a promised storm waste many hours of virga. Most of the time, if it doesn't get going in the first 2 or 3 hrs, it will bust low. Of course there will be a cutoff to the North somewhere but this is such a strong surge of tropical moisture, later combining with an enormous fetch off the Atlantic off the deck, I just cannot see how this isn't hammer time anywhere South of POU. If estimated amounts in central Jersey verify, I would be baffled if anyone South of 84 didn't see double digit totals. I expect no less than a foot here in the Harriman highlands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I think I'd almost rather have a dignified shutout than know that I spent 10 days tracking 1.4"... It wouldn't be the first time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest NJ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I am riding this one out in my apartment in Bayside Queens Instead of Hardyston NJ but I think you guys in Eastern Sussex, Morris, Western Passaic and Southeast Orange County are are going to get in on the fun. I think those areas could get 6-12 inches. For you guys further north and west near 84 I hope you can get at least a few inches to whiten the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I am riding this one out in my apartment in Bayside Queens Instead of Hardyston NJ but I think you guys in Eastern Sussex, Morris, Western Passaic and Southeast Orange County are are going to get in on the fun. I think those areas could get 6-12 inches. For you guys further north and west near 84 I hope you can get at least a few inches to whiten the ground. o Z nam is the most intense QPF bomb I have ever been under in my life. Is it right..don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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