Manny Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 6z NAM holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM holds serve If we end up getting an inch or two up here...this would be the worst case ever of being NAM'ed. It's been run after run, not just a one or two "NAM'ed" runs like in the past With several other models shifting North I am still holding out hope for 8" + but expecting 3-6" at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Right now I'm in New Paltz. If the Nam verifies I'll stick up here but if 12z tomorrow things are looking GFS like, I'm heading to NYC. The Nam has held serve for about 7 runs and the EPS has come north as well, so the GFS is a southern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 6z NAM holds serve I have seen it all. Locally 3 feet in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 I have seen it all. Locally 3 feet in my area. Your hood jacks for the entire NE lol.. Using the Kuchera method extreme NNJ is roughly 36" with areas up here just to your N around 26-30". The city is in the 30" range as well. Man what a cut off just north of Kingston though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We know the NAM is going to overdo precip amounts, but a lot of you obviously do very well. The 8" line basically bisects Dutchess and Ulster, with a sharp gradient north and south. It definitely pulled back south on this run by a good 20 miles. GFS aside, we seem to be getting closer to a consensus that would put at least the southern half of this region at warning level snows, with perhaps advisory level amounts north of there - though that may be a stretch because we know the gradient is going to be so sharp. As I said earlier, I really think someone in our region is going to get smoked by an intense mesoscale band. The blizzard of 96 had a band pretty far removed from the heart of the storm that produced 33" of snow in the Litchfield Hills and Southern Berks. Btw, here's what ALY has on their site for the storm, this is 7 am Saturday to 7 am Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 The death band showing up well on the NAM... Whoever is under this is gonna get smoked!! 6 hours of pure heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It really looks as though I-84 is going to be the cutoff for the good stuff. I know we've had many discussions about the orographic effect of the Hudson Highlands in that region. Looks to be in play again somewhat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Orange County 0" to 21". See page 6. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It really looks as though I-84 is going to be the cutoff for the good stuff. I know we've had many discussions about the orographic effect of the Hudson Highlands in that region. Looks to be in play again somewhat here. Your still sitting on 10+ inches in Pough according to NAM... Gotta look at LE... We're gonna be at 15:1 ratios u see those bands easily, with little wind compared to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Your still sitting on 10+ inches in Pough according to NAM... Gotta look at LE... We're gonna be at 15:1 ratios u see those bands easily, with little wind compared to coast I'm not buying it for MBY. Check out the RH on the 4km NAM. A lot of dry air on the north side of the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm not buying it for MBY. Check out the RH on the 4km NAM. A lot of dry air on the north side of the banding. Gonna be alot of subsidence too.. There is gonna be one crazy cutoff with this one and its gonna be around 84.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Im still going with an advisory level event with the potential for low end warning snows toward Rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Your still sitting on 10+ inches in Pough according to NAM... Gotta look at LE... We're gonna be at 15:1 ratios u see those bands easily, with little wind compared to coast There are some super dry layers to the north of this system. Even at the surface, KPOU is at 26/5F. I personally doubt that we see any precip hitting the ground along the US 44 corridor... hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There are some super dry layers to the north of this system. Even at the surface, KPOU is at 26/5F. I personally doubt that we see any precip hitting the ground along the US 44 corridor... hope I'm wrong. Have u seen 9z SREFS.. They're insane, for even POU.. Only 2 members out of the 26 whiff... Mean is 1.8 max 4+ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gonna be alot of subsidence too.. There is gonna be one crazy cutoff with this one and its gonna be around 84.. Glad I'm south of 84! by like a mile or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 10 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS pretty much gives O.C that advisory level event. Its gonna suck watching that dry air just rip the radar to shreds. Tomorrow is gonna be a long day if you are a snow lover up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Glad I'm south of 84! by like a mile or so.... Im north of it by like half a mile but im near the most southern part of 84 lol.. ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Even northern Warren and Sussex counties get nada according to the GFS, while NYC gets 10-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here's what I find the most disconcerting. When Juno was forming last January, I watched the satellite loops and suspected it was over for my area based on how far east the baroclinic leaf and emerging commahead were. The corresponding features of this cyclone are, what, 600 miles further west? And I'm missing the heavy snows by a very similar margin. Sometimes I can't believe how many ways there are to ruin a snowstorm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Im north of it by like half a mile but im near the most southern part of 84 lol.. ha! Yeah, I'm still further north than you are, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS & NAM for comparison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Glad I'm south of 84! by like a mile or so.... Haha! I might be taking a little trip to Peekskill Saturday afternoon to chase the snow (and beer!). Figure I can take the train assuming they are running normal schedules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12 Z GFS give me some hope. Crushes me at around 6-8 inches. Please be fooking right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 12 Z GFS give me some hope. Crushes me at around 6-8 inches. Please be fooking right! Whats funny is you are in the best spot out of all of us for this event and it has nothing to do with your elevation lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We break into the storm coverage for a special announcement... The Weather Channel naming of storms is really annoying. Along with their acting like they are the ultimate weather authority. Thank God FIOS dumped them. Back to the regularly scheduled posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Even northern Warren and Sussex counties get nada according to the GFS, while NYC gets 10-12 inches. I live in northern Sussex county. NCEP shows 6-8 inches for my area. Another wiggle north and I am buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think it's safe to say this will be one of the most prolific now-cast events we've seen in a long time....robs might see 8" and I may not see a flake.... Tomorrow should be interesting regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 I don't think I've ever seen this spread before and Upton acknowledges this.. Most likely and Max potential maps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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