Manny Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM just played a god awful trick on us, I hope it's correct though. LHV jackpot on the 18z Nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM just played a god awful trick on us, I hope it's correct though. LHV jackpot on the 18z Nam lolAs you know the problem is it's the NAM and all alone at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hoping the trend keeps going, NAM looks awesome this afternoon...where did the gradient set up on that? Through like Catskill to Coxackie? Having trouble finding snowfall maps on Tropical Tidbits...maybe they were removed due to being inaccurate? Edit: Found it and verbatim its ~8" here and 20"+ for everyone south of around Highland. Not that it matters that much but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We got NAM'd period.... If the GFS does something at tonight, I'll get excited again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is a terrible. No other guidance is giving the golden snow shovel award to NNJ, Hudson Valley or CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is a terrible. No other guidance is giving the golden snow shovel award to NNJ, Hudson Valley or CT Rap and SREFS, that's about it lol... On their own so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hoping the trend keeps going, NAM looks awesome this afternoon...where did the gradient set up on that? Through like Catskill to Coxackie? Having trouble finding snowfall maps on Tropical Tidbits...maybe they were removed due to being inaccurate? Edit: Found it and verbatim its ~8" here and 20"+ for everyone south of around Highland. Not that it matters that much but... TTB doesn't offer nam maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Rap and SREFS, that's about it lol... On their own so far Text book example of when not to use the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is a terrible. No other guidance is giving the golden snow shovel award to NNJ, Hudson Valley or CT But you were psyched by the NAM yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 TTB doesn't offer nam maps Was looking at the 4 KM maps in the dropdown menu...which almost always seem to show everything further north than the normal NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Was looking at the 4 KM maps in the dropdown menu...which almost always seem to show everything further north than the normal NAM4K nam is actual way worseTotals wise, looks like the GFS/euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 4K nam is actual way worse Totals wise, looks like the GFS/euro Oh yeah it sucks lol ill stick with the 32 km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 TTB doesn't offer nam maps The Nam's last 3 runs for KSWF went from 0.0( 06z), to 13.1 (12z), to 39.1 (18z). Is it on to something or on something. Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% 160124/0700Z 61 01015KT 19.7F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 15:1| 39.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.66 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Oh yeah it sucks lol ill stick with the 32 km 4K is garbage outside of developing mesoscale bands within 12 hrs anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The Nam's last 3 runs for KSWF went from 0.0( 06z), to 13.1 (12z), to around 28.0 (18z). Is it on to something or on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Congrats OC. An NCEP model can't be *that* wrong, can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Congrats OC. An NCEP model can't be *that* wrong, can it? Even a broken clock is correct twice a day so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Safe to say NAMS done for... GFS strikes us out in the bottom of the 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 In all fairness the GFS did improve for some of us.. 2-4"in a good chunk of OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In all fairness the GFS did improve for some of us.. 2-4"in a good chunk of OC I checked the NCEP site. Looks like 3-5 possibly in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Modelology can't be the right way to forecast the weather and this week is proving it. So frustrating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Even a broken clock is correct twice a day so who knows. I do I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I do I doYou do do'ed, thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 For the "lucky" ones in the area an advisory level event should do it.. It's nice to see the GFS ensembleS north but that NAM is out of control lol. Only regularly used model that will print out 30" and give you 2" on the following run lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For the "lucky" ones in the area an advisory level event should do it.. It's nice to see the GFS ensembleS north but that NAM is out of control lol. Only regularly used model that will print out 30" and give you 2" on the following run lol.. fully expect the NAM to collapse tonight. Final call at my house - 2.4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 At this point, I would say that if (when?) the NAM caves to the globals, our glimmer of hope will be shattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Any chance this convection helps drive the system further north or closer to coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Any chance this convection helps drive the system further north or closer to coast? we need this squall line to be as robust as possible http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=MS-rad-1-24&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Doh! Just saw that after I posted. I usually drop by this thread first before the main thread. Anyways, if that's the case then it certainly looks healthy. Over 5000 strikes plus tornadic storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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