IrishRob17 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I was 12 years old once... in the 80's. I also jumped off a cliff once into Lake Erie, but I think I was 13. And obviously it was the summer, so it had nothing to do with snow. Unrelated, pretty much every GFS ensemble member is a miss this time around. Yeah, I remember being 12 too and feeling the need to help people with the incredibly obvious and tell them when the models began on each run. Actually I was 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Come on, we all know it was because of a busted slight risk day. Those darn Great Lakes and their stable air that inhibit thunderstorms. Got me every time growing up. On the plus side, I got to experience more than my fair share of thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah, I remember being 12 too and feeling the need to help people with the incredibly obvious and tell them when the models began on each run. Actually I was 10. NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You serious w this sh*t? You think I wasn't kidding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You think I wasn't kidding? Lmao.. I hope this thing trends south, ala 2010... And you watch partly cloudy skies It's ok tho, you Can have few years of "above average snowfall" I'll take my crappy year and 70" average any time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You think I wasn't kidding? Aren't you supposed to be monitoring infinitesimal temperature changes at KNYC, or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Aren't you supposed to be monitoring infinitesimal temperature changes at KNYC, or something? Burn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Take a look at the para euro and you can all jump off a cliff. Will it be sunny? Lol, a weenie troll Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don't mean to sound so negative, but what bothers me is how close we are to a very memorable event while places just to our south will be talking about and remembering this blizzard for a lifetime. So close and yet so far. Every model run shows increasing heights and a tick north and yet we north of 84 remain high and dry. This is such a tease when as a weather enthusiast, big and memorable winter storms are what make this season so anticipated. SMH. We got the burn last year too with the big misses. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This will be a hard pill to swallow... I will not being anywhere near this forum on Saturday, as his sharp gradient verifys, and I can practically see the snow falling in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM worked some magic for my area. Looks to be around a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM worked some magic for my area. Looks to be around a foot. imp: imp: Congrats, but please don't rub it in. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This will be a hard pill to swallow... I will not being anywhere near this forum on Saturday, as his sharp gradient verifys, and I can practically see the snow falling in NYC I bet someone who is currently modeled not to get a lot of snow will get buried with this system. I still think I'm too far north, but Rockland or Putnam seems like a good place to be right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The SREFS for Newburgh are pretty insane..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This will be a hard pill to swallow... I will not being anywhere near this forum on Saturday, as his sharp gradient verifys, and I can practically see the snow falling in NYCI need to just stop this obsession with snow. It's killing me. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I agree at least this one we sort of know tho. I had hope till the night of the storm last year. I am rooting for nyc tho It'd be cool to see them get the record that the nam is depicting. Honestly I'm starting to feel the mid Hudson valley is in a really poor area for major nor'easters. Too far west for late developing miller b's that crush New England and Too far north on Storms like this. New England had 4 storms last year that would've been some of the biggest I've ever seen in 15 years here. Does anyone happen to know the top 5 storms at Poughkeepsie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I thought being inland but not too far inland we would cash in, but since I moved here 6 years ago, with a few exceptions, there has been a lot of disappointment. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The SREFS for Newburgh are pretty insane..... What are they putting out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I thought being inland but not too far inland we would cash in, but since I moved here 6 years ago, with a few exceptions, there has been a lot of disappointment. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Yea it sucks because we are literally just miles away from many of the big storms. Nemo was a little disappointing too even tho I got 13" while places 50miles east in Connecticut got 3ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREFS have a mean of 1.03" and max of 3.8" for Newburgh lmao...... Yeaaaaaaaaaaa right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam actually has 6" up here lol but I wouldn't believe that with the most likely overdone of and possible dry air/ virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam actually has 6" up here lol but I wouldn't believe that with the most likely overdone of and possible dry air/ virga Wouldn't put any stock into it yet unless globals jump on board tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 That NAM run was a huge improvement.. Gives me 6-8 verbatim.. Another 30 mile shift will do wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Only thing too with nam is qpf is most likely overdone and honestly if we're actually on the cusp of bigger snows by tomorrow night I would be prepared for 0 and be pleasantly surprised with anything more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Only thing too with nam is qpf is most likely overdone and honestly if we're actually on the cusp of bigger snows by tomorrow night I would be prepared for 0 and be pleasantly surprised with anything more than that Yeah, those intense bands as depicted by the NAM, you would probably go from heavy snow to flurries in a matter of a few minutes. But, at least we are holding on to a glimmer of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM is by far my fav SR model and even though it's not in range it looks mighty impressive. it's pretty obvious confluence is gonna be a factor. Hopefully it's weak enough to allow the storm to get most of the HV in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM is by far my fav SR model and even though it's not in range it looks mighty impressive. it's pretty obvious confluence is gonna be a factor. Hopefully it's weak enough to allow the storm to get most of the HV in the game. the stronger the ULL the less the confluence will effect, and yes the RGEM looks very impressive... Dare I say better than the NAM, the biggest issue I see is the s/w entering the west coast... It plays a big role in kicking this thing east and we need it slow down... So many factors with perfect timing needed...We are NOT out of this.. Not by a long shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Pretty astonishing changes with the trough on the GFS. Significantly more amplified and quite a bit slower... but also noticeably further south with the closed low. End result might be close to the same for the northern fringe, but it's fascinating to watch nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Meh. The 00z cycle has shown some pretty decent improvements so far but it won't be enough for mby. One more wholesome tick and I can start thinking about measurable. Along and south of I-84, I'd be feeling pretty decent after seeing the American and Canadian models this evening. I've read a few case studies in the past about fronto-induced banding right on the edge of the precip shield, so maybe I can pull off something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 just enough of a slight north trend tonight for my area to have some skin in the game. Stil feel good with around 6-8 inches locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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