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Summer Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2016


snywx

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  On 1/25/2016 at 8:25 PM, IrishRob17 said:

That must be about what I had as I lived just up 94 from there near the intersection of 9W, behind New Windsor School.

My wife teachers there now. Two miles from where we lived on butterhill so I'm sure it was the same. Crazy storm but not even in my top 10.

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Those noaa depth maps are pretty inaccurate and last year we had no snow on the ground until 1-24 then missed the blizzard but had a great early February. This year just feels less wintry tho for some reason and up north ski country last year got hammered pretty good early season in November and December which did not happen this year

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  On 1/26/2016 at 4:09 AM, LaGrangewx said:

Those noaa depth maps are pretty inaccurate and last year we had no snow on the ground until 1-24 then missed the blizzard but had a great early February. This year just feels less wintry tho for some reason and up north ski country last year got hammered pretty good early season in November and December which did not happen this year

 

There's a good reason for that. We just had the warmest December in history by 7 degrees. This past Decembers temperatures would not have qualified as a top 3 coldest October. The average temperature in December was within 2 degrees of the average April temperatures in these parts. And on and on, please God never again.

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  On 1/26/2016 at 3:51 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Tends to be the theme up here this winter....I fully expect to be shut out most of winter, and then get some ridicules storm in March, that ruins the front end of spring lol

IMO, that would be the ultimate kick in the shorts, a cool damp spring. 

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  On 1/26/2016 at 3:53 PM, IrishRob17 said:

IMO, that would be the ultimate kick in the shorts, a cool damp spring. 

 

Kind of like 96/97 when the biggest storm of the winter was about 3" and then 17" the night of 4/1?  Yeah we had effectively nothing during met winter and on the 1st of April it snowed for four hours and we got 17".

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  On 1/26/2016 at 6:35 PM, Juliancolton said:

Went hiking in the dark this morning to catch sunrise at the river up in Esopus. The ice is making decent progress but I worry we'll start losing ground again with the impending AN period. Oh well.

 

dqdF8F7.jpg

Yeah, the Wallkill was building ice but there was a good amount less ice this morning.

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It's officially snowing harder now than it did at any point last weekend, lol.

 

This winter has been a total buzzkill for my skating rink. I wasn't even going to put it up because of the long range forecasts, but this would have been the first year with a net cost of $0 (minus $20 for filling), so I decided to anyways. I've had it up about 3 weeks it's been unusable at least half of the time. Last year, over a 10 week span, there was probably only 2 or 3 days that I couldn't use it. 

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This may end up becoming a good period for you guys . There is plenty of ridging on the EC . The MJO going into 4- 5 - 6 promote it .

 

Also the PV will be sitting over HB so arctic air will be the dominant story between the 5th - 20 th 

The mean storm track will still up the EC .  1 of these will end up being a hugger .

 

 

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

 

 

gfs_z500a_sd_us_43.png

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

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  On 1/30/2016 at 6:02 PM, gravitylover said:

50 miles SE would do it, we have 11 days to make it happen.  See what you can do PB.  

 

In the meantime I think I'll enjoy saving some heating oil the next few days.

 

And if nothing else, we can rest easy with the knowledge that a storm that big will generate its own cold air.

 

Or something along those lines.

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  On 1/30/2016 at 7:29 PM, gravitylover said:

I've always thought that happens because the storm is vertically stacked and pulls the cold air down from the upper levels of the atmosphere. I hate the term generates its own...

Yeah I think it was called dynamic cooling if I remember from intro to met class. IIRC it happens when the low gets really wound up. I remember from way back it being a factor in the early 2000s when the older models like the NGM often were wrong with the pressure of the storm. I could be wrong though.

Edit: Just found out from the met 101 section its from cooling due to vertical motion. So you were closer to begin with lol my bad

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^^ Yeah but we only need 'cold enough' to get a decent storm in Feb.  I really don't want another month like Feb last year.

 

  On 1/30/2016 at 8:24 PM, HeinzGuy said:

Yeah I think it was called dynamic cooling if I remember from intro to met class. IIRC it happens when the low gets really wound up. I remember from way back it being a factor in the early 2000s when the older models like the NGM often were wrong with the pressure of the storm. I could be wrong though.

Edit: Just found out from the met 101 section its from cooling due to vertical motion. So you were closer to begin with lol my bad

Same here, was 30 years ago that I last took a formal met class.  Since then it's been accumulating real world knowledge.

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