White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Waiting for a storm where inland gets crushed and coast gets less. Haven't seen that since..... Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 6:34 PM, White Gorilla said: Suppression in a super El Nino year..... Wow.... Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Suppression is always a concern during El nino years. Fast flow with a stj on roids is never a good combo for storms to turn north. Most had this a Mid-Atl year anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 6:50 PM, snywx said: Suppression is always a concern during El nino years. Fast flow with a stj on roids is never a good combo for storms to turn north. Most had this a Mid-Atl year anyway. No putting away the snow blower until Thursday morning. Plenty of time for a trend back north. Toss the euro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It is what it is. Nature will do whatever it wants obviously. If not this one, will hope for the next. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just had an insane wind gust... Easily over 40mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Very annoying how the spread between models is becoming larger as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:19 PM, snywx said: Just had an insane wind gust... Easily over 40mphI had a gust to 20mph, which is rare for me due to all the trees that surround my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:19 PM, snywx said: Just had an insane wind gust... Easily over 40mph There's a noticeable draft in my house on this wind direction. Brr. I'm probably the only person who's been looking past this weekend, but the 12z Euro cuts the following storm and then suppresses another one at the end of the month. Naturally, I have a few impolite suggestions for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 8:12 PM, Juliancolton said: There's a noticeable draft in my house on this wind direction. Brr. I'm probably the only person who's been looking past this weekend, but the 12z Euro cuts the following storm and then suppresses another one at the end of the month. Naturally, I have a few impolite suggestions for the Euro. I just assumed this weekend's storm was going to bring about the apocalypse, so I honestly haven't bothered to look past Sunday. Bad news all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Anything big this winter will be bonus. A suppressed solution if verified will be par for the course for me given my expectations. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 8:30 PM, chietanen said: I just assumed this weekend's storm was going to bring about the apocalypse, so I honestly haven't bothered to look past Sunday. Bad news all around. Everyone says bad news... I'd rather the euro be in the dumps now instead of Thursday... Everyone will be back on the happy train come 18z GFS you watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I am still hopeful, but not as optimistic. Let ''s see what happens. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro ensembles, btw, suggest a general 2-6" for our area, with higher amounts as one heads south. As I mentioned earlier, the previous run was in the 6-10" range. On a somewhat related note, I read a tweet this morning from Ian regarding sampling of new data when a disturbance hits land. He doesn't seem to think it makes any difference in terms of modeled outcome. Just thought it was interesting. Ian Livingston @islivingston 6h6 hours ago Better sampling will bring new insights. #urbanlegends https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/689464309286498304 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 2-3-4 inches will be nice to see Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 9:00 PM, White Gorilla said: 2-3-4 inches will be nice to see Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk[/quote/ Hope we can still manage that...not sure if anyone can confirm this but I believe a lot of recent big HV storms like Boxing Day and Feb 14 2014 seemed to be at the southern most point in modeling around 100 hrs out before trending north inside 72 hours. Anyway, I'm probably just wishing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Well it was fun while it lasted lol.. 18z GFS was the beginning of the end for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 10:15 PM, snywx said: Well it was fun while it lasted lol.. 18z GFS was the beginning of the end for us. Lol.. Over 3 days out? Do you not remember what the 06 GFS looked like? It was terrible, nearly identical to that 18z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 10:15 PM, snywx said: Well it was fun while it lasted lol.. 18z GFS was the beginning of the end for us.I blame the radio show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 10:15 PM, snywx said: Well it was fun while it lasted lol.. 18z GFS was the beginning of the end for us. I will send you photos of the 8 inches at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 10:17 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lol.. Over 3 days out? Do you not remember what the 06 GFS looked like? It was terrible, nearly identical to that 18z run... It's dead, Jim. On 1/19/2016 at 10:19 PM, Animal said: I will send you photos of the 8 inches at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It all depends on what your expectations were. The big numbers were nice to see, but there has been so much volatility on the ensembles that I had yet to buy into a big solution. If this one misses, on to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This will prob trend into a February 2010 and we won't get anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 10:19 PM, Animal said: I will send you photos of the 8 inches at my house lol.. Send it to Ulster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 10:21 PM, chietanen said: It all depends on what your expectations were. The big numbers were nice to see, but there has been so much volatility on the ensembles that I had yet to buy into a big solution. If this one misses, on to the next one. Agreed. No one should have bought into those 18"+ totals the earlier runs were printing out. As it stands now I see this as an advisory event for most, Low end warning snows down in NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 10:19 PM, Animal said: I will send you photos of the 8 inches at my house I'll send pictures of the foot that I get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 10:17 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lol.. Over 3 days out? Do you not remember what the 06 GFS looked like? It was terrible, nearly identical to that 18z run... lol.. 6z gave me over 1" of LE... This run gives me half of that. Not even close. I appreciate your enthusiasm but its quite obvious whats happening right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ABC News just said latest model trends look like NYC and BOS to be spared the worst with crippling snows from Carolina to Philly and South Jersey. When was the last storm that gave NYC rain and us NW folks 10"+? As said before if no talk of mixing issues in NYC or coastal NJ than we are generally screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Latest GEFS plumes are down to 0.16" at Poughkeepsie. I think the writing is on the wall for those of us in the northernmost counties. Hard to see enough change from this point on to get us into decent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 11:45 PM, Keith O said: ABC News just said latest model trends look like NYC and BOS to be spared the worst with crippling snows from Carolina to Philly and South Jersey. When was the last storm that gave NYC rain and us NW folks 10"+? As said before if no talk of mixing issues in NYC or coastal NJ than we are generally screwed. 1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 11:12 PM, snywx said: lol.. Send it to Ulster Trolling now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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