Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Someone could approach 40-45" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not a met - can someone explain to me how this slight change in track and phasing correlates with a (somewhat; relatively) significantly warmer temp in parts at around hours 96-102? Doesn't make much sense to me, and makes me think the GFS has something off here. I'm a newbie but let me take a stab at it: Before the onset of the precip, the CAD is there, but there isnt really a lot of cold air to the north. The 5*C SFC sotherm is all the way up in Canada. This run, the GFS amps up the primary low and drives it into KY, which erodes out more of the CAD. The storm doesn't really draw in cold air until after it bombs so while it transfers, we warm due to an easterly fetch off the ocean into not-so cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here's the BWI sounding @ 102... still looks like snow but just barely to my untrained eyes... http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016011900_102_KBWI.png DCA appears to be rain... http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016011900_102_KDCA.png DCA switches back at 105.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here's the BWI sounding @ 102... still looks like snow but just barely to my untrained eyes... http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016011900_102_KBWI.png DCA appears to be rain... http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016011900_102_KDCA.png Its sleet at DCA at 102 and is back to snow at 105... so yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Whoever is in the deform band won't just "may" get more than 30...i would bet a large amount of $ they WILL get more than 30 easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Weeeeeee MOTHEROFGODSNOWTOTALSfrom00zGFS1-19-16run.gif Haha. Craziest snow map I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here's the BWI sounding @ 102... still looks like snow but just barely to my untrained eyes... http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016011900_102_KBWI.png DCA appears to be rain... http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016011900_102_KDCA.png By 108, both appear to be back to all snow BWI: http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016011900_108_KBWI.png DCA: http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016011900_108_KDCA.png The 102 sounding is definitely sleet, not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We are starting to see more reality in the models. Nearly 100% of the time you will see mixing with bombing lows like this. The all snow solutions along and east of 95 were outside the norm...not that it can't happen but unlikely for such a strong storm with above normal water temps. This thing will be pulling in warm Atlantic water from hundreds of miles out and drawing into the area aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm disappointed in that run. Only 3 feet of snow? LOL. That is an AMAZING run! Now I have to set my alarm for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6 panel http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_0z/gfsloop.htmlTemps really not bad awesome Deform band that sets up Still windy also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 102 sounding is definitely sleet, not rain. Sorry for the mis-reading. I don't know how its sleet when its above 0C from 850 down, but like I said, my eyes are untrained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Text output for Westminister is 3.45 of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I *THINK* GGEM is a major hit... I see it in the black and whites at 96 and 108 108 - http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Pretty consistent in that DC has ~16" by 10pm Friday, then it gets dicey, and then something happens on the backside. I'm not willing to bet that it is another foot plus, but I'd take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here's the BWI sounding @ 102... still looks like snow but just barely to my untrained eyes... http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016011900_102_KBWI.png DCA appears to be rain... http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016011900_102_KDCA.png By 108, both appear to be back to all snow BWI: http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016011900_108_KBWI.png DCA: http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016011900_108_KDCA.png That's not rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Haha well the Canadian just may have had its best run yet for us around the cities, low over SC and moving NE up the coast. Temps at 850 and surface definitely cold enough to support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 With a potentially historic setup like this we are bound to see some freakish things in the models over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That's not rain I'm sorry. It looked like the column was above freezing from 850 down. Should have just posted soundings and let you guys do the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEM IS ICE COLD 99 its coming down hard faster then GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So, if I'm reading everything correctly over the last few pages, is the storm trending northwest? Seems that the sharp southern cutoff of the snow totals keeps moving further up each run. Hell, Richmond might not get anything but rain at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/00z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f102.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm sorry. It looked like the column was above freezing from 850 down. Should have just posted soundings and let you guys do the analysis.All good just helps that we have your link and can share in the analysis together! They get dicey to read sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NO its not the 0z GFS has it nw for some reason So, if I'm reading everything correctly over the last few pages, is the storm trending northwest? Seems that the sharp southern cutoff of the snow totals keeps moving further up each run. Hell, Richmond might not get anything but rain at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We are starting to see more reality in the models. Nearly 100% of the time you will see mixing with bombing lows like this. The all snow solutions along and east of 95 were outside the norm...not that it can't happen but unlikely for such a strong storm with above normal water temps. This thing will be pulling in warm Atlantic water from hundreds of miles out and drawing into the area aloft. Agree with this. The fact that we're seeing this much QPF and this much snow in spite of some realistic periods of mixing makes me MORE confident that these models will verify than if they were calling for a 100% snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEM 988 off OCMD 105 COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 OMG GGEM Haha well the Canadian just may have had its best run yet for us around the cities, low over SC and moving NE up the coast. Temps at 850 and surface definitely cold enough to support snow. It's cold too...no flip for DC metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Clown map based on the "Kuchera" method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We are starting to see more reality in the models. Nearly 100% of the time you will see mixing with bombing lows like this. The all snow solutions along and east of 95 were outside the norm...not that it can't happen but unlikely for such a strong storm with above normal water temps. This thing will be pulling in warm Atlantic water from hundreds of miles out and drawing into the area aloft. Even still, the clown map from the GFS is an awful lot from DCA-BWI and points east. That's the good news with a more amped up system...yes the likelihood of some mixing if not changeover, maybe a risk of dry slottage for a short period, but a better def band to follow. Wasn't Feb 5-6 2010 similar in that regard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GGEM over 2.5" for DCA - BWI all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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