January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter

[Subtropics]

The numbers we're seeing are easily knocking on the top end of anything recorded outside the mtns at least when it comes to area covered if not specific maximums (though close on either). Not to mention it's January and not late Feb or early Mar when moisture bombs might be more expected. I am hesitant to buy op GFS entirely because there's certainly some weirdness there but the levels above were all truly glorious on this run as well. I'm still a little bothered by the Euro till the next one at least, though I may go to bed instead of wait.

 

That's what I'm saying. This has to be top end potential for our area.. There was a thread I made a couple years back asking what is the maximum amount of snow we could get in this area, and it seemed the consensus was MAYBE DCA could hit 36'' and west could hit ~50'' in a PERFECT setup. We are darn close to those numbers right now...

 

Not sure if anyone remembers that thread I made.

[andyhb]

Does the Feb/March moisture preference not get mitigated in this case by the current ocean temps?

 

It probably gets at least partially mitigated by the sub tropical moisture feed with the enhanced ST jet via strong Nino.

[Bob Chill]

Does the Feb/March moisture preference not get mitigated in this case by the current ocean temps?

We're getting the extreme output totals because of speed. The stall/capture is a big part of that. I'm not sure the month or anything else matters when this kind of progression happens. If anything, Jan temp climo is helping with the mixing stuff. Mid March and the storm could have more precip and less snow.

[MacintoshPro]

SE thread is weenieing over the NAVGEM and UKMET... 

GFS para gave us something like 3" QPF.

[Heisy]

The UKMET is way south...

[DTWXRISK]

 0Z  WED HI   RES  GEFS    SNOW

 

 

[MacintoshPro]

The UKMET is way south...

 

 

I'll take our chances with the Canadian and GFS over the NAVGEM and UKMET...

[Ian]

Does the Feb/March moisture preference not get mitigated in this case by the current ocean temps?

Warm waters and the background Nino are likely multipliers for the precip. Part of the reason you get more of those moisture laden storms late winter into early spring is because a big lumbering closed low is more likely in that period than now. There's like an 18 hour period where the 500mb low barely moves it sort of sits there and craps fireworks for a bit. In general our best 500 passes while similar just south are considerably less intense and more progressive. There's a run to 1996 partly because that's like one of the only modern cases with such a beastly 500mb low associated with a heart of winter storm. Unless the models keep spitting it out there's really not much finer of a mid-level presentation than the 0z GFS. I don't use key words and catchphrases often but it was jawdropping.

 

FWIW, I think the southerly track of the low earlier is probably good in many cases. Gets us a coastal further south. We want that front running ejection of .75"+ qpf in the conveyor belt on the front end.

[AlaskaETC]

I'll take our chances with the Canadian and GFS over the NAVGEM and UKMET...

Well, the UKMET is pretty efficient within 3 days...

[clskinsfan]

GET A LOAD OF THESE!!: IAD 3.79!

 

MRB:

160122/1800Z 66 10005KT 27.6F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
160122/2100Z 69 09006KT 24.3F SNOW 12:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.191 12:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 72 07006KT 23.4F SNOW 11:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.207 11:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0300Z 75 05007KT 23.8F SNOW 8:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.220 10:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 78 04008KT 23.8F SNOW 9:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.189 10:1| 8.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82 100| 0| 0
160123/0900Z 81 04009KT 24.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 9:1| 9.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.97 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 84 03012KT 25.2F SNOW 9:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.224 9:1| 11.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.19 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/1500Z 87 02013KT 27.0F SNOW 19:1| 5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.275 11:1| 16.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.46 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 90 02016KT 27.9F SNOW 7:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.317 10:1| 18.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.78 100| 0| 0
160123/2100Z 93 36012KT 28.7F SNOW 10:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.261 10:1| 21.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.04 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 96 35013KT 29.7F SNOW 13:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.268 11:1| 24.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.31 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/0300Z 99 35014KT 28.3F SNOW 11:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.185 11:1| 26.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.50 100| 0| 0
160124/0600Z 102 34012KT 27.8F SNOW 23:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.200 12:1| 31.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.70 100| 0| 0
160124/0900Z 105 32009KT 27.8F SNOW 13:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 12:1| 32.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.78 100| 0| 0
160124/1200Z 108 32008KT 28.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 12:1| 32.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.79 100| 0| 0

 

IAD:

160122/1800Z 66 08004KT 26.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 13:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0
160122/2100Z 69 08006KT 25.2F SNOW 14:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.282 14:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 72 07010KT 25.1F SNOW 8:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.256 11:1| 6.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0300Z 75 04010KT 24.9F SNOW 9:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.228 11:1| 8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 78 04010KT 25.4F SNOW 15:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.272 12:1| 12.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 100| 0| 0
160123/0900Z 81 04013KT 25.6F SNOW 13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.222 12:1| 15.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.32 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 84 04016KT 26.3F SNOW 10:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.253 12:1| 18.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.57 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/1500Z 87 02016KT 27.2F SNOW 6:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.480 10:1| 21.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.05 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 90 01012KT 29.9F SNOW 6:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.457 9:1| 23.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.51 100| 0| 0
160123/2100Z 93 36013KT 30.5F SNOW 6:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.442 9:1| 26.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.95 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 96 36015KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.267 9:1| 26.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.22 73| 0| 27
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/0300Z 99 36015KT 32.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.228 9:1| 26.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.45 88| 0| 12
160124/0600Z 102 35014KT 29.4F SNOW 8:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.174 9:1| 27.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.62 100| 0| 0
160124/0900Z 105 34011KT 30.1F SNOW 11:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.137 9:1| 29.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.76 100| 0| 0
160124/1200Z 108 34011KT 29.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 9:1| 29.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.78 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/1500Z 111 34011KT 30.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 9:1| 29.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.79 100| 0| 0

 

DCA:

160122/1800Z 66 07007KT 28.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
160122/2100Z 69 07010KT 27.2F SNOW 12:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.303 12:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 72 06014KT 27.0F SNOW 9:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.268 11:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.61 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0300Z 75 05015KT 27.8F SNOW 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.223 11:1| 8.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 78 04019KT 28.1F SNOW 14:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.291 12:1| 13.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.12 100| 0| 0
160123/0900Z 81 04025KT 28.7F SNOW 11:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.369 11:1| 16.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.49 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 84 04032KT 29.2F SNOW 5:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.194 11:1| 17.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.68 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/1500Z 87 03031KT 31.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.165 11:1| 17.9|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 1.85 0| 0|100
160123/1800Z 90 04037KT 34.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.217 11:1| 17.9|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 2.07 46| 0| 54
160123/2100Z 93 02030KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.276 11:1| 17.9|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 2.34 0| 0|100
160124/0000Z 96 02026KT 35.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.140 11:1| 17.9|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 2.48 27| 0| 73
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/0300Z 99 01027KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.151 11:1| 17.9|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 2.63 68| 0| 32
160124/0600Z 102 35022KT 31.4F SNOW 6:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.166 10:1| 18.9|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 2.80 100| 0| 0
160124/0900Z 105 35020KT 29.9F SNOW 17:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116 11:1| 20.9|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 2.91 100| 0| 0
160124/1200Z 108 35017KT 29.7F SNOW 8:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.137 10:1| 21.9|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 3.05 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/1500Z 111 34015KT 30.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 10:1| 22.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 3.06 100| 0| 0

 

BWI:

160122/2100Z 69 08011KT 27.2F SNOW 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 72 06014KT 27.6F SNOW 11:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.198 11:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0300Z 75 06019KT 27.9F SNOW 10:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.185 11:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 78 04025KT 28.5F SNOW 13:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.271 12:1| 9.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80 100| 0| 0
160123/0900Z 81 05030KT 28.8F SNOW 9:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.473 11:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.27 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 84 05034KT 29.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.33|| 0.314 11:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.33|| 1.58 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/1500Z 87 04037KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 11:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.33|| 1.66 0| 0|100
160123/1800Z 90 04041KT 34.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070 11:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.33|| 1.73 62| 0| 38
160123/2100Z 93 03036KT 35.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.239 11:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.33|| 1.97 38| 0| 62
160124/0000Z 96 03034KT 36.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040 11:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.33|| 2.01 25| 0| 75
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/0300Z 99 02030KT 35.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079 11:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.33|| 2.08 51| 0| 49
160124/0600Z 102 36031KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.163 11:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.33|| 2.25 84| 0| 16
160124/0900Z 105 36031KT 30.6F SNOW 19:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 11:1| 15.8|| 0.00|| 0.33|| 2.37 100| 0| 0
160124/1200Z 108 36026KT 30.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 11:1| 16.4|| 0.00|| 0.33|| 2.44 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/1500Z 111 34024KT 30.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 11:1| 16.5|| 0.00|| 0.33|| 2.45 100| 0| 0

 

RIC:

160122/1500Z 63 05006KT 26.1F SNOW 14:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 14:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0
160122/1800Z 66 08006KT 28.3F SNOW 13:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.211 13:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0
160122/2100Z 69 05009KT 27.6F SNOW 9:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.215 11:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 72 03010KT 28.7F SNOW 9:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.299 11:1| 8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0300Z 75 05013KT 31.2F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.49|| 0.00|| 0.244 11:1| 8.5|| 0.49|| 0.00|| 1.05 6| 94| 0
160123/0600Z 78 02015KT 32.4F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.96|| 0.00|| 0.559 11:1| 8.5|| 1.44|| 0.00|| 1.61 64| 22| 14
160123/0900Z 81 03019KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.204 11:1| 8.5|| 1.44|| 0.00|| 1.82 0| 0|100
160123/1200Z 84 02017KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 11:1| 8.5|| 1.44|| 0.00|| 1.94 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/1500Z 87 34018KT 32.1F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.09|| 0.00|| 0.062 11:1| 8.5|| 1.54|| 0.00|| 2.00 27| 47| 26
160123/1800Z 90 34022KT 29.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.100 11:1| 8.5|| 1.54|| 0.11|| 2.10 0| 0|100
160123/2100Z 93 32018KT 32.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 10:1| 9.0|| 1.54|| 0.11|| 2.17 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 96 32019KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.254 10:1| 9.0|| 1.54|| 0.11|| 2.42 81| 0| 19
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/0300Z 99 34017KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.302 10:1| 9.0|| 1.54|| 0.11|| 2.73 69| 0| 31
160124/0600Z 102 34016KT 32.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 10:1| 9.4|| 1.54|| 0.11|| 2.78 100| 0| 0
160124/0900Z 105 34015KT 30.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 10:1| 9.7|| 1.54|| 0.11|| 2.82 100| 0| 0
160124/1200Z 108 34012KT 31.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 10:1| 9.8|| 1.54|| 0.11|| 2.83 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/1500Z 111 34009KT 31.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 10:1| 10.0|| 1.54|| 0.11|| 2.85 100| 0| 0

[DTWXRISK]

 RECALL 24 HRS AGO  HOW  FOOKING   WARM    THE CMC WAS ? ?

 

[Ian]

My thoughts on the ukmet are deoendent on what the euro shows.

[WEATHER53]

That's what I'm saying. This has to be top end potential for our area.. There was a thread I made a couple years back asking what is the maximum amount of snow we could get in this area, and it seemed the consensus was MAYBE DCA could hit 36'' and west could hit ~50'' in a PERFECT setup. We are darn close to those numbers right now...

 

Not sure if anyone remembers that thread I made.

I posted earlier I have thought for a long time what a 3-4" rainstorm that was a snowstorm would be like.

Even 1922 was not that wet

I just figured by now that the dynamics for it just would not allow for all snow.

So this upcoming would be a first for me. 

Snowmaggedon was a first with 25"

Its the 50's and 60's again

More later.

[AlaskaETC]

South eastern forum is celebrating that this thing is their storm now..

It could be I suppose, but every piece of guidance except for UKMET and NAVGEM says this is a MA blockbuster.

[DTWXRISK]

masco is  a  S  SERIOUS idiot

 

Oh yes i remember him from here. I never thought he was good at all, does not mean he isn't right. He loves attention like JB2.

[ravensrule]

The UKMET is way south...

That is a little concerning. It is a good model. I pray the Euro does not go that way or this might be a little painful. Many times it foreshadows the Euro.

[DTWXRISK]

MASCO   isnt   a   met     and he  isnt  qualified to make that assessment
 even worse  he  denied   that  the pattern  was going to change in  jan   and argued that dc  bal  would be snowless all winter  long 

 of course  when I called him  delusional     crackpot   he got upset
 

Mike Masco. He is a TV Met who worked at Channel 2 in Baltimore for awhile but is now working at a station in Philly. I bet dtk would take issue with what he said, lol.

[psuhoffman]

 RECALL 24 HRS AGO  HOW  FOOKING   WARM    THE CMC WAS ? ?

so what do you think the final solution is?  you keep pointing out every run that is cold/south but last i checked you thought this was similar to a storm (1983) that had the heaviest axis of snow through NW Viginia Maryland and southeast PA.  If this keeps going south your own ideas are going to bust north, its already a little south of that 83 storm, so what is your point?  Again I just want clarification, are you  just pointing out that its going to snow in Richmond or are you forecasting that this will trend south like the euro/uk camp?

[clskinsfan]

The UKMET is way south...

 

Where are you seeing it. It's not out on Mateocentre? The SE guys are talking about the image above that shows a low sitting NE of Hatteras. Who knows where it goes from there.

[mitchnick]

That is a little concerning. It is a good model. I pray the Euro does not go that way or this might be a little painful. Many times it foreshadows the Euro.

Plenty of time for things to shift south and back a few times. Strong Niño climate does favor southern sliders but that's not all the time.

[psuhoffman]

My thoughts on the ukmet are deoendent on what the euro shows.

seeing it that far south is kinda perplexing... also expected more of a shift north with the gefs and ggem ens given their op runs

[FWX-Keith]

A little update on the wind, storm surge, and beach erosion risk for the mid-atlantic here: http://thehurricanenet.com/hazwind001/. good small summary. 

[Ian]

Where are you seeing it. It's not out on Mateocentre? The SE guys are talking about the image above that shows a low sitting NE of Hatteras. Who knows where it goes from there.

Well if it's there at 96 hours it doesn't look like the good runs we've seen.

[nj2va]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

Latest WPC discussion (issued at midnight) completely threw out the 12z Euro OP.  We'll know our answer re: the Euro in about 25 minutes but thought I'd post this anyways.

 

 

 

IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS
SO FAR FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS
IN 4 DISTINCT AREAS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT IT WAS NOT USED AT ALL
IN THE BLENDING PROCESS. INSTEAD...ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF THE 18Z GFS
WAS BLENDED WITH ABOUT 30 PERCENT EACH 18Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. 

[mitchnick]

What time does the Euro get rolling? I'm a scaredy cat, but talk of the Ukie has me worried.

We're at the 72 hour mark so it's final pattern approach time. Regardless of what it shows tonight, 72 hours is a long time to consider any solution a lock.

[MacintoshPro]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

Latest WPC discussion completely threw out the 12z Euro OP.  

 

 

Thats slightly reassuring... all we can do is hope the Euro goes north or at least stays put.

[AlaskaETC]

Euro at hr 48