Snowpocalypse Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is the ukmet out? Normally maps have been posted and discussed by this time. If it has been talked about sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ugh, I've been in meetings all day and missed the fun. I should probably post these in the banter thread, but we've been running a hires version of WRF at UMD with a DC area inner nest using explicit convection. Initial and boundary conditions are from the GFS. I generally don't endorse snow maps....but here are snow totals using a generic 10:1 ratio for simplicity for our 12z and 18z simulations today. These are just for fun, as we haven't even played around with the configuration very much nor have we done any validation. Even overcooked GFS this seems to have serious potential to be among the legends. Snowmageddon+. I worry we've set ourselves up for disappointment seeing so many gigantic runs but.... yeah. Strangely at ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Oops this is ridiculous. Remember, these are gusts... I wonder how big the drifts will get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is the ukmet out? Normally maps have been posted and discussed by this time. If it has been talked about sorry. I don't think its out yet. I just refreshed the page and it still lists last night's 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ugh, I've been in meetings all day and missed the fun. I should probably post these in the banter thread, but we've been running a hires version of WRF at UMD with a DC area inner nest using explicit convection. Initial and boundary conditions are from the GFS. I generally don't endorse snow maps....but here are snow totals using a generic 10:1 ratio for simplicity for our 12z and 18z simulations today. These are just for fun, as we haven't even played around with the configuration very much nor have we done any validation. I think the bottom depiction makes a lot of sense.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is the ukmet out? Normally maps have been posted and discussed by this time. If it has been talked about sorry. It's out and it's ugly for you guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM clown map Using the enhanced Kuchera method to adjust for the colder air in NW Virginia (and the warmer air over the ocean) makes it even more impressive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Really? Thats your post "It's ugly for you guys"....Umm How exactly. Some description would be nice. He's from South Carolina, so...yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS mean is very similar to its mean at 18z....maybe a tad wetter in the western regions.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Apparently No UK tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I wonder how big the drifts will get? 1966 in Salisbury was windy 30 gusting to 50 and 20" snow. 5-6' drifts were everywhere and the college had drifts up to the window sills of the 2nd floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Psu had a great rebuttal to my take on the run ealier but even then then the progression still looked too complicated and weird for lack of a better term. We're approaching narrow goal post range now. Gfs set an unlikely bar. My wag is similar to what you are thinking. Euro will probably blast the usual suspects to the west and make both of us feel pretty comfortable. Psu had a great rebuttal to my take on the run ealier but even then then the progression still looked too complicated and weird for lack of a better term. We're approaching narrow goal post range now. Gfs set an unlikely bar. My wag is similar to what you are thinking. Euro will probably blast the usual suspects to the west and make both of us feel pretty comfortable. I was wrong about one thing, the GFS/GGEM tonight both cut off south, and start south in the early stages like the euro, but then they have a cleaner transfer and tuck the low in closer. So you may have been right about the euro just having a funky solution with the SLP track and precip because the other guidance moved towards it in some ways early on but still trended north later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Really? Thats your post "It's ugly for you guys"....Umm How exactly. Some description would be nice. Several people in this thread asked if it was out. Sorry for helping out? The surface low is like 500 miles off the coast of NC and heading out to sea. What more description do you need? That hard to read map is the only thing available until the Ukmet loads on to meteocenter, so take it for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Another monster hit to DC area by 18z GFS Para... big numbers and temps are fine (snow for entire event). Starts snowing around hr 69 and still snowing, and decent rates, at hr 102... probably another 6/9 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 1966 in Salisbury was windy 30 gusting to 50 and 20" snow. 5-6' drifts were everywhere and the college had drifts up to the window sills of the 2nd floor. Not likely to repeat so far, lot of warm air for lower Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Precip looks to be in the 3 to 4 inch range on the 18z GFS Para. That's up to hr 102, with another couple hours to go (that's as far as the model is out to at the moment). Like I said, monster hit. Stops snowing around hr 114 - so a long event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Several people in this thread asked if it was out. Sorry for helping out? The surface low is like 500 miles off the coast of NC and heading out to sea. What more description do you need? Well. That is a little more descriptive than "it's ugly for you guys". Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Another monster hit to DC area by 18z GFS Para... big numbers and temps are fine (snow for entire event). Starts snowing around hr 69 and still snowing, and decent rates, at hr 102... probably another 6/9 hours to go. The QPF totals will probably be pretty crazy. 2.5-3"+ through Saturday 7pm and the deform band is still going. eta: ninja'd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilhill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I wonder how big the drifts will get? I grew up in Bluemont VA on Rt. 601, near Mt. Weather on top of the Blue Ridge. In 1996 we had 48" of snowcover and 15' drifts. My little sister was born at home between the two storms that produced those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I grew up in Bluemont VA on Rt. 601, near Mt. Weather on top of the Blue Ridge. In 1996 we had 48" of snowcover and 15' drifts. My little sister was born at home between the two storms that produced those numbers. Welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is the ukmet out? Normally maps have been posted and discussed by this time. If it has been talked about sorry. It is not out yet on Meteocentre for some reason, but it is out on Meteociel.fr. It shows the entire Northern Hemisphere and is hard to read, but I rotated it to make it easier and zoomed in. This is the hr 96 panel. Looks like a 995ish mb LP center ENE of Hatteras. Link: http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilhill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Welcome Thank you much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It is not out yet on Meteocentre for some reason, but it is out on Meteociel.fr. It shows the entire Northern Hemisphere and is hard to read, but I rotated it to make it easier and zoomed in. This is the hr 96 panel. Looks like a 995ish mb LP center ENE of Hatteras. Link: http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 It looks great. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I haven't seen anything like this. Even for the Feb '13 blizzard in NE I can't recall snow outputs being so anomalously high relative to climo. Runs that give DCA 200% of climo? Lol What can you say though when every piece of guidance is historic? My bar is 18". That's historic in DC. The numbers we're seeing are easily knocking on the top end of anything recorded outside the mtns at least when it comes to area covered if not specific maximums (though close on either). Not to mention it's January and not late Feb or early Mar when moisture bombs might be more expected. I am hesitant to buy op GFS entirely because there's certainly some weirdness there but the levels above were all truly glorious on this run as well. I'm still a little bothered by the Euro till the next one at least, though I may go to bed instead of wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I was wrong about one thing, the GFS/GGEM tonight both cut off south, and start south in the early stages like the euro, but then they have a cleaner transfer and tuck the low in closer. So you may have been right about the euro just having a funky solution with the SLP track and precip because the other guidance moved towards it in some ways early on but still trended north later. That's part of what left me scratching my head. Yes, the euro was south with h5 and slp but the surface panels didn't compute in my brain. I always look at h5 before surface. I was pretty stoked when I saw the vort panels but when I toggled the surface panels I was like wut? But the euro is coveted by almost all the pros and weenies alike nowadays. I try my best not to let a single model make up my mind but it's not easy considering history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The numbers we're seeing are easily knocking on the top end of anything recorded outside the mtns at least when it comes to area covered if not specific maximums (though close on either). Not to mention it's January and not late Feb or early Mar when moisture bombs might be more expected. I am hesitant to buy op GFS entirely because there's certainly some weirdness there but the levels above were all truly glorious on this run as well. I'm still a little bothered by the Euro till the next one at least, though I may go to bed instead of wait. Does the Feb/March moisture preference not get mitigated in this case by the current ocean temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For anyone who wanted to see the individual snowfall totals for DC from the 00z GEFS. Probably the last run to look at the ensembles for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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