BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Can SPC issue pds's for blizzards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah...The Canadian is a huge hit for the area I highlighted earlier...NW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Posted this on twitter but; FWIW, I think the QPF Bomb over N VA and the low hanging back are somewhat related. GFS pulling a bit of ol' NAM with the convective params with the increased resolution. Still a massive hit but the 36+' are likely overcooked with the backend. 20-30" still totally doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It has been very consistent, but it has also ticked south with the QPF presentation every run today. But not jumpy though. A jumpy euro and ticking gfs is a role reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 True. The edges are always the most stressful. Been there plenty. But ground zero has been steadfast on the gfs within a fairly tight range. Quite uncommon. Either a huge win for consistency or wrong idea all along I think the SLP is 100 miles south compared to being in KY.. that's a big shift... end result, 993 just east of ORF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 CMC has a HUGE deform band along the mason dixon http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/00z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f90.pngWhole area CRUSHED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah...The Canadian is a huge hit for the area I highlighted earlier...NW VA Heh, I thought the exact thing when I saw the QPF...it destroys them out there. It's a great hit for us too...hard to read on the maps I'm looking at but 2" QPF. 850s look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1994 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If this storm pans out the way the GFS says, it was worth all our past crappy winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like about hours 75 through 85 feature REALLY HEAVY snow when looking at precip type/rate on tropical tidbits for GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 CMC/GFS fighting over who gets 30"+ while the rest of us get 2ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 But not jumpy though. A jumpy euro and ticking gfs is a role reversal. yeah...We'll know in 90 minutes, but I think at 12z the Euro over-corrected for something and I'm not sure what, but I think it might be an off run. 0z Euro last night is more sensible given the other guidance. Hopefully Euro shows that solution again and we can forget about 12z (even though it was very good for me personally). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If this storm pans out the way the GFS says, it was worth all are past crappy winters of the 90's? 3 + winters in a row for D.C.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's an interesting storm that leaves those who "only" get 2ft feeling left out. CMC/GFS fighting over who gets 30"+ while the rest of us get 2ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 yeah...We'll know in 90 minutes, but I think at 12z the Euro over-corrected for something and I'm not sure what, but I think it might be an off run. 0z Euro last night is more sensible given the other guidance. Hopefully Euro shows that solution again and we can forget about 12z (even though it was very good for me personally). From what I've seen, and mostly read in here...it seems the primary on the GFS is indeed farther south (similar to the 12Z Euro?). But the big difference appears to be what happens with the coastal after it develops and takes over. Not as tucked in to the coast on the 12Z Euro compared to the GFS (and CMC), and doesn't blow up as much? I haven't been able to see the Euro maps themselves, going by what I recall from discussion earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If I am reading the wind maps on IWM correctly. It looks like DC would have true blizzard conditions for 6-9 hours on Saturday. Over 30 MPH sustained and very heavy snow. We have been doing these threads a long time together. Over 10 years for a lot of us. Have any of you ever seen a GFS run like tonights? Because I dont ever remember anything like this. Not for PD2 or anything since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 yeah...We'll know in 90 minutes, but I think at 12z the Euro over-corrected for something and I'm not sure what, but I think it might be an off run. 0z Euro last night is more sensible given the other guidance. Hopefully Euro shows that solution again and we can forget about 12z (even though it was very good for me personally). Psu had a great rebuttal to my take on the run ealier but even then then the progression still looked too complicated and weird for lack of a better term. We're approaching narrow goal post range now. Gfs set an unlikely bar. My wag is similar to what you are thinking. Euro will probably blast the usual suspects to the west and make both of us feel pretty comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 yeah...We'll know in 90 minutes, but I think at 12z the Euro over-corrected for something and I'm not sure what, but I think it might be an off run. 0z Euro last night is more sensible given the other guidance. Hopefully Euro shows that solution again and we can forget about 12z (even though it was very good for me personally). we will pay for this event. This might be our last snowstorm till 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Any worry about another W shift next run or in general? Or is that as far as it can get (west wise). DC is very close on temps in GFS (better with CMC tho) - know mixing is a possibility but another 25 miles east and DC gets absolutely slammed and another 25 miles west and the numbers become dicey. Think the early snow will help some in temps but close... hopefully GFS is just a little warm this run. Thought other than the timing (slower), run was almost identical to 18z, until it shifted west slightly late in the run. Getting giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 we will pay for this event. This might be our last snowstorm till 2021 That might be true for 2016, but it's only January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ugh, I've been in meetings all day and missed the fun. I should probably post these in the banter thread, but we've been running a hires version of WRF at UMD with a DC area inner nest using explicit convection. Initial and boundary conditions are from the GFS. I generally don't endorse snow maps....but here are snow totals using a generic 10:1 ratio for simplicity for our 12z and 18z simulations today. These are just for fun, as we haven't even played around with the configuration very much nor have we done any validation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1994 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 of the 90's? 3 + winters in a row for D.C.! I was born in '94, so I don't remember any winters from the 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 of the 90's? 3 + winters in a row for D.C.! We're a snow town now. Been that way for a while. Almost mini ice age like, but that's discussion for another time and place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I want wind too. GFS delivers. Could you post sepa area for wind, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I was born in '94, so I don't remember any winters from the 90s Overall that decade wasn't so great for many of us except for one big event. Back to business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Should there be a separate thread for wind, mods? Or should we consolidate it all in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 we will pay for this event. This might be our last snowstorm till 2021 So La Niña until 2021? Well at least you should get plenty of guitar gigs in the dry years. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ugh, I've been in meetings all day and missed the fun. I should probably post these in the banter thread, but we've been running a hires version of WRF at UMD with a DC area inner nest using explicit convection. Initial and boundary conditions are from the GFS. I generally don't endorse snow maps....but here are snow totals using a generic 10:1 ratio for simplicity for our 12z and 18z simulations today. These are just for fun, as we haven't even played around with the configuration very much nor have we done any validation. Thanks for posting, and wow at the 60" in the Shenandoah and Cannon Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ugh, I've been in meetings all day and missed the fun. I should probably post these in the banter thread, but we've been running a hires version of WRF at UMD with a DC area inner nest using explicit convection. Initial and boundary conditions are from the GFS. I generally don't endorse snow maps....but here are snow totals using a generic 10:1 ratio for simplicity for our 12z and 18z simulations today. These are just for fun, as we haven't even played around with the configuration very much nor have we done any validation. Thanks for posting! Obviously I enjoy them more since they have pretty colors over my house but pretty cool that you come and share these experimental products with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 we will pay for this event. This might be our last snowstorm till 2021 Your snow may not have even melted by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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