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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter


stormtracker

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Seriously folks, if there is a single complaint about this run then I don't know what to say. An explosive progression like this typically has much higher mix, dryslot, and whatever concerns. But this particular solution is about as epic as you can ever draw on paper. Insanity

Just unreal.

Best run of our lifetimes

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Trash the gfs over the euro all you want. It has barely wavered for 12+ runs in general besides wobbles. If it busts to "the king" then let the trashing continue for years. But you can't deny the consistency. I've never seem the gfs do this Pre upgrade

 

Agreed...the GFS has been spitting out insane numbers since 3 days ago...unspeakable.

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That's like what... a 4 contour bowling ball? O.o

 

Also, we still don;t really know where the deform band is gonna set up obviously, but it seems like a good bet that it will be over our area and stay for quite a while.

 

Yup, it's ridiculous (in a good way).  Definitely bookmarked that image.  Even if you tried to draw that up better, I don't think it would be possible. 

 

And totally agree on the banding.  I would guess it sets up NW the cities in the favored spots.  

 

Still pretty speechless based on that run - and not even talking about the QPF output...moreso the 500 maps and SLP .

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Trash the gfs over the euro all you want. It has barely wavered for 12+ runs in general besides wobbles. If it busts to "the king" then let the trashing continue for years. But you can't deny the consistency. I've never seem the gfs do this Pre upgrade

 

 

You know, it's all about perspective because to us down here in SW va, there has been a big shift. The SLP isn't in KY and it jumps much earlier like the Euro has...it's the difference between 12-18 and 3-6 of sleet. 

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Mike Masco. He is a TV Met who worked at Channel 2 in Baltimore for awhile but is now working at a station in Philly. I bet dtk would take issue with what he said, lol.

 

 

Philly meteorologist on Twitter. He seems to be engaging in some "HOW COULD THIS BE TRUE" speculation. https://twitter.com/MikeMasco

Oh yes i remember him from here. I never thought he was good at all, does not mean he isn't right. He loves attention like JB2.

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The winds are insane on this run. blizzard conditions during the day Saturday.

3XwFV5n.png

 

This has been in the back of my mind, though of course most of my focus was on the snow primarily up to this point.  But if the winds are like what we've seen in the past many model runs, we certainly would be looking at serious blizzard conditions.

 

ETA:  I now see, and from reading the comments, that these are 850 mb winds.  Ooops.  But still, we'd be looking at some serious winds most likely even at the surface.

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Trash the gfs over the euro all you want. It has barely wavered for 12+ runs in general besides wobbles. If it busts to "the king" then let the trashing continue for years. But you can't deny the consistency. I've never seem the gfs do this Pre upgrade

 

It has been very consistent, but it has also ticked south with the QPF presentation every run today.  

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You know, it's all about perspective because to us down here in SW va, there has been a big shift. The SLP isn't in KY and it jumps much earlier like the Euro has...it's the difference between 12-18 and 3-6 of sleet.

True. The edges are always the most stressful. Been there plenty. But ground zero has been steadfast on the gfs within a fairly tight range. Quite uncommon. Either a huge win for consistency or wrong idea all along

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