HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Very sharp cutoff down into Central VA. Still snowing heavily, freezing rain further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah, mix line on 00z NAM gets very close to DC at hr 81 and hr 84. Probably slows down snow rates towards the end of the run because of mixing. That said, it is hr 84 NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM is overamped and warm as usual... Euro 500 low position wasn't too far off, but the NAM going nuclear pushes the warm air up in advance. Unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This NAM has the sim radar at the southern NY boarder at 78. That's a good bit north of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM takes the L from Kitty Hawk to the mouth of the bay from 81 to 84. That placement = ping ping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lookin good. NAM doing its thing. Solid stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah, mix line on 00z NAM gets very close to DC at hr 81 and hr 84. Probably slows down snow rates towards the end of the run. That said, it is hr 84 NAM. Yeah, can only guess what it would do after that. I know it's the NAM at 84 hours, but do things then transition into the banding/CCB on the back side is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM takes the L from Kitty Hawk to the mouth of the bay from 81 to 84. That placement = ping ping. If you are S and E of DC yes... DCA proper barely escapes the ping ping per soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What's with the total Richmond screwjob? LOTS of Freezing Rain, but remember: It's the late range NAM, don't take it too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No one should pay any attention to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 81 to 84 on the 0z NAM seems to jump NW. Anyone else seeing that? Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Silent observer of many-a-year here... I don't recall seeing the term "ping ping" before, what does it mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Silent observer of many-a-year here... I don't recall seeing the term "ping ping" before, what does it mean? Sleet...as in "pingers", the sound the pellets would make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No one should pay any attention to the NAM. Seems to follow climatology perfectly for DC on this run. 850 goes above freezing just to the city and probably a few miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah, can only guess what it would do after that. I know it's the NAM at 84 hours, but do things then transition into the banding/CCB on the back side is the question. Snowing (maybe mixing) like crazy at the end of the run (hr 84) - looks like it would continue. the 850 line is still east of DC then tho but close. moves it (LOW) due N from the outer banks of NC - doubt that but we shall see. Mixing line is barely into DC so it is fine... great look overall until hr 72/75 or so. It is the NAM at hr 84 - can't take it too seriously but signal is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I guess people see what they want to see but at 60 the NAM low position is within about 3 miles of its 18 position at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm guessing the 12km Nam has little utility at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Guys on the radio special saying NAM not right and would have some rain going on around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro 500 low position wasn't too far off, but the NAM going nuclear pushes the warm air up in advance. Unlikely. All the radio show folks agree with you. Wes says the NAM is probably bunk with the far western track. Will had a great bit on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 FWIW, the NAM using the Kuchera ratio: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So in summary, after the "bad" euro run, we've gotten crushed by the 18z NAM, 00z NAM, Para GFS, and 18z GFS. Hopefully the 00z GFS and GEM runs have more of the same. If they do and the euro comes more north it will be game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 81 to 84 on the 0z NAM seems to jump NW. Anyone else seeing that? Odd. Probably spurious convection or something. NAM does that a lot. Pay no attention to it, especially at the end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Experts on the radio show all agree that banding is possible/probable on the northern edge of the precip shield in the deform band. Dynamics appear supportive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Probably spurious convection or something. NAM does that a lot. Pay no attention to it, especially at the end of its range. Agree. It just looked so ridiculous that I had to make sure I was looking at it right. Toss the NAM past 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm guessing the 12km Nam has little utility at this range? I like the trend but I don't draw any conclusions based on the model. Definitely ignore the 850mb line, I've seen the NAM very strange things with it before, especially with a strong closed H5 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Guys on the radio special saying NAM not right and would have some rain going on around DC. those experts should know better than to debate 84 hour nam lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 those experts should know better than to debate 84 hour nam lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk They didn't - they reluctantly addressed it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Been posting/lurking on this board long enough to know not to invest too much into the nam past 48. It's just another model to look at. The gfs and euro run are the keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 those experts should know better than to debate 84 hour nam lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Um, its a model. It's data and nobody based any forecast on it and basically trashed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 those experts should know better than to debate 84 hour nam lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The whole conversation with predicated with, "The NAM at 84 hours isn't too useful, but we're getting lots of questions about it so..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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