Fozz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Agreed and like many others have stated when was the last time Richmond got a foot let alone jackpotted in a major storm. But hey there is a first for everything. I believe Richmond received a foot (or close to it) in that 1/30/2010 storm, and I know they did in January 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Every storm is it's own entity, but the similarities at 500 mb ar pretty amazing I, along with most in MA, have zero issues with a 1/96 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I believe Richmond received a foot (or close to it in that 1/30/2010 storm), and I know they did in January 2000. Jan, 2000 was more like 18" and 1996 range was between 1 to 2' depending on location. Drifts were crazy and hard to measure. 1983 also received 16-18"as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 classic that moron would say that -- when its huge snow for dc to bos he loves it never mid that the euro and eps has been showong these BIG huge amounts for 6 runs in a arow In all fairness the Euro has been jumping the precip field all over the place the past few runs. It hasnt exactly been consistent. And It's most recent run doesnt even align with its ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 From LWX a few minutes ago: THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...COLD AIR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLE FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL HIGHER UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS THREE TO FOUR DAYS OUT AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. ALMOST AS IF TO REMIND US OF THIS...THE 12Z OP RUN OF THE ECMWF SHIFTED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND GREATLY REDUCED ITS FORECAST SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONS...A SCENARIO WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BUT IS DEFINITELY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM has the Low south of the Louisiana/Arkansas border at 45hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 500 closed low in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM LP track very similar to 18z at 45. Should be a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowyCane22 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Any word on 12z para Euro yet? (Hate to interrupt 84 hr nam) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 At hour 48, the NAM seems to be on a similar track to the 18Z, but slower and 2 millibars stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Any word on 12z para Euro yet? (Hate to interrupt 84 hr nam) Not that I saw on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 maybe someone will know what this means, but almost all of the NMB sref members are south like the euro or even more so, while every one of the ARW members is north like the GFS/GGEM. I am assuming that plays into their biases but any clue to what that may mean, any idea which is better in this situation? The mean is simply splitting the difference between two opposite camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hour 57 on the NAM has a stronger precip field, still slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM looks like a nice strong storm, but damn it is slow getting here. Friday may be excruciating waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 21z arrival for NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Through 63 seems like very similar placement, but slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 this type of clustering is unfortunately very common in the SREF. In general, the NMMB members tend to be weaker and slower with troughs. maybe someone will know what this means, but almost all of the NMB sref members are south like the euro or even more so, while every one of the ARW members is north like the GFS/GGEM. I am assuming that plays into their biases but any clue to what that may mean, any idea which is better in this situation? The mean is simply splitting the difference between two opposite camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Transfer ongoing at 72... almost done at 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 21z arrival for NAM Just looked quickly at the18Z run, and precip was getting into the DC area around that time too. Or, more precisely (going verbatim), it would have already started sometime just before then. So maybe a bit slower now in this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 78 -- 996mb SLP just NE of ILM 81 -- 992mb SLP over/near HSE 84 -- 994mb SLP in entrance to Chesapeake Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 One big difference out west is that the NAM plasters the Ohio River region, whereas the GFS is lighter there. We also don't seem to get as much snow before the primary takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Virtually identical to 18z. Precip shield perhaps a handful of miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Snowfall totals are looking good, NAM has a nice front thump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Are SREfs even useful at this point??? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Best at 24-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nam looked like it was going south early but it came back north. Now a tick WSW of it's 18z run. EDIT: NRN stream further west over upper Michigan caused it to come back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM has 12-14 inches by 7am Saturday but mixing line intrudes at 84 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM oddly seems to have a smaller precip shield relative to the globals. That's a new one for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM looks awesome at 81 hours. Even though long range for NAM, still a beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Goodness, that's a mauling. Well up into central southern PA with heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DCA isothermal at 81 and 84.... ping ping nearby... but snow should be heavy enough to overcome IMO at both 81 and 84 hrs... aka rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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