January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter

[DTWXRISK]

WAAAY SOUTH     from  the  GFS  run on    Monday

 

GEFS 

[DTWXRISK]

[clskinsfan]

the 18z GFS gives half an inch of freezing drizzle for DCA in the upper 20s? Am I reading this right?

Pesky warm nose...

 

Yeah. But someone posted the warmest sounding earlier and it looked like all snow to me. I think the important number here is the QPF of 2.39....It's wet and the ratios later in the storm when its coldest look like crap as well. DCA would be smashed most likely.

[clskinsfan]

Here's RIC. Nice storm for them if it's accurate:

 

160122/1200Z 66 VRB01KT 24.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
160122/1500Z 69 VRB02KT 26.9F SNOW 11:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.165 11:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0
160122/1800Z 72 07007KT 29.4F SNOW 7:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.172 9:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160122/2100Z 75 05009KT 28.7F SNOW 12:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.365 10:1| 7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 78 04012KT 30.1F SNOW 10:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.480 10:1| 12.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.20 100| 0| 0
160123/0300Z 81 03016KT 30.5F SNPL 2:1| 0.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 0.176 9:1| 12.7|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.38 17| 83| 0
160123/0600Z 84 02013KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045 9:1| 12.7|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.42 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0900Z 87 01016KT 32.6F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 9:1| 12.7|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.46 0| 0|100
160123/1200Z 90 36017KT 29.9F SNOW 5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 9:1| 13.0|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.53 100| 0| 0
160123/1500Z 93 36017KT 27.4F SNOW 9:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 9:1| 14.0|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.64 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 96 36017KT 28.5F SNOW 10:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124 9:1| 15.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.76 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/2100Z 99 36017KT 27.9F SNOW 15:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 9:1| 15.6|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.79 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 102 35015KT 26.7F SNOW 22:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 9:1| 16.0|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.80 100| 0| 0
160124/0300Z 105 34012KT 26.1F SNOW 22:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 9:1| 16.4|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.82 100| 0| 0
160124/0600Z 108 34010KT 25.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 9:1| 16.5|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.83 100| 0| 0

[psuhoffman]

WAAAY SOUTH from the GFS run on Monday

Are you still thinking 1983 as best analog or are you shifting south because when things were north of your analog you were saying south. Now most guidance is a little south of 83 and you still seem to be pointing out more south. Just trying to get a sense of your thoughts on final outcome not criticizing.

[H2O]

WAAAY SOUTH     from  the  GFS  run on    Monday

 

sure.  if you are looking at the one GFS run that had the thing up in the Ches bay

[WinterWxLuvr]

You don't give up do you?. What are you going to say if the Euro goes back north tonight?.

I compared the latest gfs run, 18z, with its 18z from yesterday and the consistency is amazing. At both the surface and at 500. Northern extent of precip looks to be reduced, I suppose because of stronger high pressure to the north. Remarkable consistency.

I don't have a crystal ball to determine what will end up correct, but I feel better with a steady model than one that is jumping around like a cat on a hot roof.

[Maestrobjwa]

Joe Bastardi gave a theory about why the EURO is did what it did in the afternoon run (and why it may be an error) Might help soothe the anxieties a bit, lol (I don't think I can post it here, though)

[ravensrule]

I compared the latest gfs run, 18z, with its 18z from yesterday and the consistency is amazing. At both the surface and at 500. Northern extent of precip looks to be reduced, I suppose because of stronger high pressure to the north. Remarkable consistency.

I don't have a crystal ball to determine what will end up correct, but I feel better with a steady model than one that is jumping around like a cat on a hot roof.

Agreed and like many others have stated when was the last time Richmond got a foot let alone jackpotted in a major storm. But hey there is a first for everything.

[Maestrobjwa]

"If it's behind a paywall you can't, but you can say what he said.

Here is what I think is going on, condensed into one version that everyone can laugh at if I am wrong.

The European has had problems with too much energy staying this month. I have figured out that when the MJO is favoring warm in the east, it is right on holding energy back. If not, its wrong. But I think because it is doing that again, it does not intensify the upper low that it has in 72 hours over Memphis.

This is because its so strong with the system you see leaning the height field south southwest. So as that swings around, it pulls the upper low into it and in 90 hours its over Northern Ga In other words the weaker the front system is, the more likely when this gets together, its further south. But is that the model error bias? I think so"

(And he went on to provide examples)

[MacintoshPro]

I looked at the article and this is basically what Joe bastardi is saying: When the MJo favors cold for the east, the Euro often holds energy back for too long (my footnote: we saw this in the flizzard on Sunday when it had a run where it kept the energy in Texas), and this bias in the 12z run causes the upper low in TN to not intensify as much (don't know how he connects the dots there, but whatever). he also says that the weaker the front, the more south this thing is when it gets together.

[eurojosh]

So in other words the old Euro holding energy back in the SW thing. Others can correct, but I think I've seen some commentary from Bob and one of the mets saying this is no longer the case? Good test case.

[clskinsfan]

So in other words the old Euro holding energy back in the SW thing. Others can correct, but I think I've seen some commentary from Bob and one of the mets saying this is no longer the case? Good test case.

 

Yeah. I thought that was supposed to have been corrected.

[BTRWx]

Joe Bastardi gave a theory about why the EURO is did what it did in the afternoon run (and why it may be an error) Might help soothe the anxieties a bit, lol (I don't think I can post it here, though)

What I read this morning he was hinting at a NW jog. That clearly did not happen at least today.

[yoda]

I am going to surmise at quick glance that the 21z SREFs are a pounding looking at the 24hr QPF map and MSLP maps

 

ETA:  850s and 2mT are cold and good to go

[NinjaWarrior2]

Early look at the 21z SREF is preety nice, better than 15z in precip. About 1.2" QPF for DC by 1:00am Saturday, also (probably doesn't mean much for ensembles), but it starts like 3-4 hours earlier.

[yoda]

[nj2va]

Latest QPF guidance from WPC.  Notice the forecaster

 

[Joshfsu123]

Latest QPF guidance from WPC.  Notice the forecaster

 

 

Misses Friday stuff... very good QPF considering it doesn't have Friday in it. Starts 00z Saturday through 00z Monday.

[BristowWx]

Looks like the 2" jackpot is right south of DC.

So this doesn't take into account what precip happens prior to 00z Saturday? If so wow

[nj2va]

Misses Friday stuff... very good QPF considering it doesn't have Friday in it. Starts 00z Saturday through 00z Monday.

 

Good catch!  Here is Day 1-3 QPF

 

[DTWXRISK]

   classic  that moron would say that  --   when   its  huge  snow for dc  to bos  he loves it 

never mid that   the euro  and  eps has been showong these BIG  huge  amounts  for  6  runs in a  arow
 

 

 

Joe Bastardi gave a theory about why the EURO is did what it did in the afternoon run (and why it may be an error) Might help soothe the anxieties a bit, lol (I don't think I can post it here, though)

[WinterWxLuvr]

Large shift north on the precip shield on srefs. Certainly will be discounted as it's the srefs and not further south but it is what it is.

[Bob Chill]

So in other words the old Euro holding energy back in the SW thing. Others can correct, but I think I've seen some commentary from Bob and one of the mets saying this is no longer the case? Good test case.

When we talk about that we are mostly referring to burying a vort in the desert southwest or Mexico. Takes longer for energy to emerge than other guidance so it's referred to as holding back but in reality it's more amped. This is usually in the medium to long range though. I've heard it'd been corrected but in general the euro does over amp at times in med-lr.

Imho- the 12z euro just looked strange with evolution during and shortly after the transition to a coastal. There were multiple low centers embedded and they interacted in an uncommon way. This seemed to really hurt the nw precip expanse and intensity.

Given the track and strength of the midlevel and upper level low I would say far more often than not solid precip would extend further nw of the low center. Just my take on it. I could be out to lunch. I'm not used to seeing a run present itself like that.

[wxdude64]

Misses Friday stuff... very good QPF considering it doesn't have Friday in it. Starts 00z Saturday through 00z Monday.

I thought that didn't look exactly right.

[psuhoffman]

   classic  that moron would say that  --   when   its  huge  snow for dc  to bos  he loves it 

never mid that   the euro  and  eps has been showong these BIG  huge  amounts  for  6  runs in a  arow

 

ok DT I like your contributions and your forecasts but before you post another 10 maps with south on them how far south do you think this actually goes and does it trend back north a bit from here because if not your 1983 comparison might be a little too far north.  When there were runs that were well north of your idea of 1983 I understood you explaining why they were wrong, but now most is south of that and the euro trended well south today, and you still seem to be on a "its going south" kik.  Have you changed your thinking that this is now primarily a VA event and not so much an entire mid atlantic one?  Furthermore, I think JB, not that I want to defend him usually, was referring to todays south trend (And there was one) might be overdone, not that the Euro would trend north o where it was yesterday, just that it might jump back north to where the op euro was the last few runs when it had more snow up into southern PA and towards NYC. 

[psuhoffman]

When we talk about that we are mostly referring to burying a vort in the desert southwest or Mexico. Takes longer for energy to emerge than other guidance so it's referred to as holding back but in reality it's more amped. This is usually in the medium to long range though. I've heard it'd been corrected but in general the euro does over amp at times in med-lr.

Imho- the 12z euro just looked strange with evolution during and shortly after the transition to a coastal. There were multiple low centers embedded and they interacted in an uncommon way. This seemed to really hurt the nw precip expanse and intensity.

Given the track and strength of the midlevel and upper level low I would say far more often than not solid precip would extend further nw of the low center. Just my take on it. I could be out to lunch. I'm not used to seeing a run present itself like that.

The weird look is due to the H5 cutting off further south and the low then occluding down off NC instead of off MD.  The low tries to tuck in still but its lost its mojo at that point and the WAA push halts the northward progress of the QPF field.  Then we see what we often see with an occluded system, a messy broken up precip pattern.  That part, if it actually cuts off over SC like that, is believable, the issue is does the euro dig the h5 too much and cut off the system too far south.  Its not far off, cut that off 6 hours later of 50 miles north and the whole thing gets more of a northward momentum as it bombs along the coast and you get a more 1983/1996 type precip pattern then the more suppressed one.  My guess is this trends back north from here but I am very anxious to see the next couple runs.  If the south trend halts now I feel very good, if it continues several more runs it might just stay south.  I feel strongly that the current consensus of runs is actually between two more likely outcomes, that this either trends back north some, and ends up more like 96 and 83 with the axis of snow, or it continues to show suppression and ends up even further south with DC perhaps on the northern edge of any appreciable snowfall.  I am leaning 70/30 it comes back north right now.

[kurtstack]

Every storm is it's own entity, but the similarities at 500 mb ar pretty amazing

 

 

[Midlo Snow Maker]

I have been in and out since Sunday so if someone can fill me in on the details for how this storm would look for my area, that would be great. 

 

P.S: If this post needs to be moved to banter please do.

You get a time out and come back and this is your first post? Smh

[Maestrobjwa]

But overall, it seems to that the shared thought is that this afternoon's run was indeed strange (And really, I wanna know why/how that trend would happen in the first place!)