January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter

[AmericanWxFreak]

GEFS paints a bullseye of 20-22" over DC 

[T. August]

GEFS is solid. All but one member (#11 which is 5") give DC over 6". Less misses SE than 12z.

[MacintoshPro]

18z GEFS is good, less non-hits. Indiv.  members look to put the bullseye on DC or just south.

[Bob Chill]

Gefs is solid with a tightly clustered track. Only one true Deb member. Down from 3 at 12z

[Snowman.]

GEFS 

[Deck Pic]

GEFS paints a bullseye of 20-22" over DC 

 

yes..Mean is 2"+ for immediate DC metro....1"+ extends well north and west...great run...every member is good to great...There is only one suppressed member and even that gives 6"+ to DC

[MacintoshPro]

wut

 

If you look, its true. I see 1 member that shows significant snow for NYC (8"+). But its not necessarily south for DC, still puts the bullseye right over our area.

[AlaskaETC]

A good amount of blockbusters in the GEFS

[Deck Pic]

If you look, its true. I see 1 member that shows significant snow for NYC (8"+). But its not necessarily south for DC, still puts the bullseye right over our area.

 

who cares about State College and NYC?  

[MacintoshPro]

Well I edited my original post, so everybodys responses look out of context. 

But here's what I mean to say. The GEFS shows 1 member with a significant (8"+) storm for NYC, which is quite a change from earlier runs. Overall, it looks similar to 12z in our area with the bullseye being within 30 miles of DC.

[Fozz]

Let's be honest.... the GEFS has shifted south, but it's not south enough to hurt our region. We can at least agree on that.

 

I think the reason some here are talking about NYC is the fear that it will continue as a trend and eventually fringe the region, especially given the 12z Euro. I think those fears are overblown, but in a crowded forum it's inevitable that a few will voice those concerns.

[Amped]

No GFS ensemble members are as far north as last nights OP which had the 2"+ precip into Altoona.

[Ian]

who cares about State College and NYC?

SNE got nothing in Snowmageddon and Knickerbocker. If it happens here so be it.

[MacintoshPro]

Let's be honest.... the GEFS has shifted south, but it's not south enough to hurt our region. We can at least agree on that.

 

I think the reason some here are talking about NYC is the fear that it will continue as a trend and eventually fringe the region, especially given the 12z Euro. I think those fears are overblown, but in a crowded forum it's inevitable that a few will voice those concerns.

 

 

I was just commenting on it, finding it interesting how this storm which was originally an east coast crusher had turned into a mid atlantic special. Probably shouldn't have posted it in this thread.

[Bob Chill]

SNE got nothing in Snowmageddon and Knickerbocker. If it happens here so be it.

That's kinda what I'm thinking. For our area we are in a very good spot. Cutting off the trip north of here isn't exactly a south trend that scares me. Just looking at the eps/gefs low locations being so tightly clustered keeps me pretty sane. The main reason the cities to the north seem to be getting less each run is the height patterns to their north have changed quite a bit from earlier progs. But that doesn't have the same effect at our latitude.

[osfan24]

What are the chances the south trend even continues? My guess is it can only go so far south and it's actually pretty likely it will end up nudged at least a bit north of where it is right now.

[B-Paq]

That's kinda what I'm thinking. For our area we are in a very good spot. Cutting off the trip north of here isn't exactly a south trend that scares me. Just looking at the eps/gefs low locations being so tightly clustered keeps me pretty sane. The main reason the cities to the north seem to be getting less each run is the height patterns to their north have changed quite a bit from earlier progs. But that doesn't have the same effect at our latitude.

 

It does, however, seem to be having the effect of keeping us down here colder throughout the storm - is that an accurate observation?

[gymengineer]

Hmm, to compare two infamous storms that have been brought up in this thread: The low position at 12UTC on 1/28/22 was almost identical to the low position at 12UTC on 1/24/1940. Of course, the precip shields were dramatically different. If we didn't know any better, I think most would have assumed the low was a bit too far east of the coast in the Knickerbocker storm to nail DC and Baltimore like it did. 

[Inverted_Trough]

What are the chances the south trend even continues? My guess is it can only go so far south and it's actually pretty likely it will end up nudged at least a bit north of where it is right now.

 

I said it yesterday:  the models have the solution 5 days in advance, but then shift south.  Then 48 hours prior to the event, they move back north again, often back to the original solutions.

 

Then you have the fact that even when the bullseye is progged to be south of us, there is always a secondary bullseye in northern MD 

[WxUSAF]

Let's be honest.... the GEFS has shifted south, but it's not south enough to hurt our region. We can at least agree on that.

 

I think the reason some here are talking about NYC is the fear that it will continue as a trend and eventually fringe the region, especially given the 12z Euro. I think those fears are overblown, but in a crowded forum it's inevitable that a few will voice those concerns.

18z GEFS looks a tiny nudge north of 12z actually.  Totally in the noise either way.  Outside of 6z runs today (which were north on the Op and GEFS), the 0z, 12z, and 18z are all really close to each other. 

[Wxdavis5784]

I would like to join this conversation but I cannot get a moderator to approve any of my messages. Guess I will speak with Allan..

[WEATHER53]

Many times we have 3-4" rain events. At times I pondered what a 3/4" event that was snow would be like but anything so juicy has always been too warm. It does now seem that I may finally find out what I have so long pondered?

[WxUSAF]

18z GEFS looks a tiny nudge north of 12z actually.  Totally in the noise either way.  Outside of 6z runs today (which were north on the Op and GEFS), the 0z, 12z, and 18z are all really close to each other. 

That said, the northern fringe of the precip has taken a noticeable shift southward on the GEFS today.  But it basically has tightened the gradient starkly on the northern edge.  Our area has stayed pretty constant. 

[Ian]

That's kinda what I'm thinking. For our area we are in a very good spot. Cutting off the trip north of here isn't exactly a south trend that scares me. Just looking at the eps/gefs low locations being so tightly clustered keeps me pretty sane. The main reason the cities to the north seem to be getting less each run is the height patterns to their north have changed quite a bit from earlier progs. But that doesn't have the same effect at our latitude.

I don't want to see another few runs of similar bumps but today's shift still stayed within the bounds we already had from S PA toward S/C VA for max. Understandably the folks buying the 'trend' hardest were already near the edge which is never a safe spot.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

That said, the northern fringe of the precip has taken a noticeable shift southward on the GEFS today.  But it basically has tightened the gradient starkly on the northern edge.  Our area has stayed pretty constant. 

 

Interesting.  Any particular reason for tightening the gradient like that on the northern edge, even as the basic position of the dynamic features is very similar?  An artifact of fewer solutions that go too far west of us, maybe (which must have partly resulted in a farther north/west precip shield)?

[clskinsfan]

18Z GFS Cobb Numbers:

 

DCA:

160122/1800Z 72 08008KT 27.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160122/2100Z 75 06011KT 27.2F SNOW 9:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219 10:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 78 06016KT 26.9F SNOW 11:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.351 11:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0
160123/0300Z 81 04018KT 27.6F SNOW 10:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.312 10:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.03 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 84 05024KT 28.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.207 10:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 1.24 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0900Z 87 03021KT 28.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 10:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 1.33 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 90 01024KT 27.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.213 10:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 1.54 0| 0|100
160123/1500Z 93 36024KT 27.4F SNOW 7:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.302 9:1| 13.4|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 1.85 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 96 36023KT 27.0F SNOW 13:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.142 10:1| 15.3|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 1.99 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/2100Z 99 35020KT 27.0F SNOW 8:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.311 10:1| 17.9|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 2.30 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 102 35021KT 25.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 9:1| 18.2|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 2.35 100| 0| 0
160124/0300Z 105 34017KT 24.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 9:1| 18.3|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 2.37 100| 0| 0
160124/0600Z 108 33011KT 22.9F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 9:1| 18.4|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 2.39 100| 0| 0

 

IAD:

160122/1500Z 69 08003KT 25.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
160122/1800Z 72 06004KT 25.6F SNOW 10:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.163 10:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160122/2100Z 75 06006KT 25.1F SNOW 11:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.246 11:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 78 05008KT 24.5F SNOW 11:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.326 11:1| 8.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75 100| 0| 0
160123/0300Z 81 05010KT 24.9F SNOW 15:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.231 12:1| 11.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 84 04013KT 25.8F SNOW 7:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154 11:1| 12.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0900Z 87 36008KT 25.4F SNOW 8:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.268 11:1| 14.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.40 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 90 01012KT 25.6F SNOW 9:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.283 10:1| 17.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.68 100| 0| 0
160123/1500Z 93 36014KT 26.3F SNOW 14:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.182 11:1| 20.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.87 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 96 36013KT 26.3F SNOW 12:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.151 11:1| 21.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.02 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/2100Z 99 34013KT 26.1F SNOW 9:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157 11:1| 23.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.17 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 102 34013KT 24.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 11:1| 23.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.23 100| 0| 0
160124/0300Z 105 34011KT 23.8F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 11:1| 24.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.25 100| 0| 0
160124/0600Z 108 32010KT 21.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 11:1| 24.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.26 100| 0| 0

 

BWI:

160122/1800Z 72 09008KT 27.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160122/2100Z 75 06015KT 27.2F SNOW 11:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.232 11:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 78 06018KT 27.6F SNOW 13:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.313 12:1| 7.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0
160123/0300Z 81 05021KT 27.9F SNOW 10:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.328 11:1| 10.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 84 05027KT 28.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.27|| 0.257 11:1| 10.4|| 0.00|| 0.27|| 1.16 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0900Z 87 04031KT 29.2F SNOW 8:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.164 11:1| 11.6|| 0.00|| 0.27|| 1.33 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 90 02025KT 28.3F SNOW 6:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.278 10:1| 13.4|| 0.00|| 0.27|| 1.61 100| 0| 0
160123/1500Z 93 02035KT 29.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 10:1| 14.3|| 0.00|| 0.27|| 1.73 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 96 01032KT 29.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076 10:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.27|| 1.81 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/2100Z 99 36028KT 29.2F SNOW 5:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.183 9:1| 16.1|| 0.00|| 0.27|| 1.99 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 102 35029KT 27.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 9:1| 16.3|| 0.00|| 0.27|| 2.02 100| 0| 0
160124/0300Z 105 35027KT 25.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 9:1| 16.6|| 0.00|| 0.27|| 2.05 100| 0| 0

 

WOO:

160122/1500Z 69 09003KT 24.2F SNOW 15:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 15:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
160122/1800Z 72 08003KT 24.3F SNOW 10:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.276 11:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160122/2100Z 75 07006KT 24.3F SNOW 6:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.188 9:1| 5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 78 05007KT 23.3F SNOW 11:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.161 10:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0
160123/0300Z 81 05008KT 23.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102 9:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 84 03008KT 25.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 9:1| 8.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0900Z 87 02010KT 25.1F SNOW 19:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.150 11:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 90 01009KT 25.2F SNOW 24:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 12:1| 12.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.12 100| 0| 0
160123/1500Z 93 36010KT 26.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 12:1| 13.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.16 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 96 35008KT 26.1F SNOW 4:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089 11:1| 13.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.25 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/2100Z 99 35007KT 26.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 11:1| 13.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.30 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 102 34008KT 25.2F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 11:1| 14.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.32 100| 0| 0

 

MRB:

160122/1800Z 72 10005KT 24.7F SNOW 14:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 14:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160122/2100Z 75 07006KT 23.6F SNOW 11:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177 12:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 78 05005KT 22.9F SNOW 13:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.310 12:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57 100| 0| 0
160123/0300Z 81 05007KT 23.8F SNOW 13:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.184 12:1| 9.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 84 04010KT 24.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068 12:1| 10.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0900Z 87 01006KT 24.9F SNOW 17:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.169 13:1| 13.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 90 01010KT 24.7F SNOW 20:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.207 14:1| 17.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.20 100| 0| 0
160123/1500Z 93 36012KT 24.5F SNOW 19:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141 15:1| 19.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.34 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 96 35012KT 24.9F SNOW 9:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 14:1| 20.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.44 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/2100Z 99 35010KT 25.2F SNOW 15:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087 14:1| 22.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.52 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 102 34009KT 24.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 14:1| 22.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.59 100| 0| 0
160124/0300Z 105 32007KT 22.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 14:1| 23.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.62 100| 0| 0

[Windman18]

I'm liking the look of these warm atlantic water temps.

[yuki neko]

18Z GFS Cobb Numbers:

 

DCA:

160122/1800Z 72 08008KT 27.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

160122/2100Z 75 06011KT 27.2F SNOW 9:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219 10:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0

160123/0000Z 78 06016KT 26.9F SNOW 11:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.351 11:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0

160123/0300Z 81 04018KT 27.6F SNOW 10:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.312 10:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.03 100| 0| 0

160123/0600Z 84 05024KT 28.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.207 10:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 1.24 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

160123/0900Z 87 03021KT 28.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 10:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 1.33 100| 0| 0

160123/1200Z 90 01024KT 27.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.213 10:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 1.54 0| 0|100

160123/1500Z 93 36024KT 27.4F SNOW 7:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.302 9:1| 13.4|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 1.85 100| 0| 0

160123/1800Z 96 36023KT 27.0F SNOW 13:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.142 10:1| 15.3|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 1.99 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

160123/2100Z 99 35020KT 27.0F SNOW 8:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.311 10:1| 17.9|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 2.30 100| 0| 0

160124/0000Z 102 35021KT 25.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 9:1| 18.2|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 2.35 100| 0| 0

160124/0300Z 105 34017KT 24.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 9:1| 18.3|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 2.37 100| 0| 0

160124/0600Z 108 33011KT 22.9F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 9:1| 18.4|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 2.39 100| 0| 0

 

the 18z GFS gives half an inch of freezing drizzle for DCA in the upper 20s? Am I reading this right?

Pesky warm nose...

[Windman18]

Seeing people talk about the para euro in NE. Anyone able to confirm it's out?

Not out yet. They were mistaken with the old run.

[Ltrain]

Seeing people talk about the para euro in NE. Anyone able to confirm it's out?

It was BS. 12z never came out.