snowdude Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good to see the colder and more SE solutions giving the eastern shore some snow. Will it continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Very cold run for those of us up here. Temps hover between 22-24 for the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The surface low pressure south. Compare it to 6z on tidbits. Very small tick south...almost insignificant wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Insane.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The surface low pressure south. Compare it to 6z on tidbits. your reacting to noise on a run that's still 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 why are you looking at 6z? Why not go look at 18z from two days ago to make a more worthless point Whenever I do a comparison I typically do it when a 12 or 24 hour Delta. So I'm comparing it to the 6 Z which is 12 hours before the 18 z. I guess when I get home I'll have to upload some stupid pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Insane.. and wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 your reacting to noise on a run that's still 3 days out Nope. I'm just stating my observation and analysis of what just happened. But in all seriousness it actually seems like it worked out fine because it sticks out just a bit but we still get into some really good snow action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro has a high temp here on sunday of 36. GFS has a high temp here on Sunday of 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Pretty good bet based on today's runs most everyone will see a foot of snow. Where the 20" + lollys end up is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Para Euro should drop in the next hour if ECMWF decided to release the data today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Insane.. Interesting that the GFS keeps producing these intense, almost convective blobs. Had one last night around Cape Cod that was like 6" qpf. Certainly great dynamics in this case, but could this be feedback of some kind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Interesting that the GFS keeps producing these intense, almost convective blobs. Had one last night around Cape Cod that was like 6" qpf. Certainly great dynamics in this case, but could this be feedback of some kind? It has to be off. Nobody is getting 20" in six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 weird, SV doesn't have that.. there's precip there but not like that at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The warmest sounding for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 weird, SV doesn't have that.. there's precip there but not like that at 96. i know wxbell uses the full-resolution surface fields at the native gfs resolution -- that could explain the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 weird, SV doesn't have that.. there's precip there but not like that at 96. Lol when i saw the snippets here, it made my go back thinking I missed some frames or something haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The warmest sounding for DC Looks like all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 weird, SV doesn't have that.. there's precip there but not like that at 96. i know wxbell uses the full-resolution surface fields at the native gfs resolution -- that could explain the difference yes...SV maps can be wonky sometimes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 i know wxbell uses the full-resolution surface fields at the native gfs resolution -- that could explain the difference yeah that's probably it. it has a little blob near there but like .5" on SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS is stronger with the lead shortwave than the Euro, that the only thing I can see that causes the 100mile difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 yeah that's probably it. it has a little blob near there but like .5" on SV. That bullseye looks really wonky. I wouldn't buy that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 yeah that's probably it. it has a little blob near there but like .5" on SV. yup that explains it -- SV must just be using the 0.50 deg fields which are just aggregated up from the model resolution -- definitely smooths things out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That bullseye looks really wonky. I wouldn't buy that at all. fun with convective parameterizations edit: but in all seriousness -- the dynamic processes/feedbacks have to be pretty close to the edge of predictability -- will probably always be an issue in NWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That bullseye looks really wonky. I wouldn't buy that at all. only adds like 15-20" of snow in 6 hours.. nbd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 TerpWeather points out on twitter that the 18z GFS and 12z EPS are very close to each other. That's particularly true of the surface low, although the 500mb depiction is still a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Para Euro should drop in the next hour if ECMWF decided to release the data today... Hope they do, it'll be interesting to see how it handles H5. Verification scores continue to be good: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/plugins/servlet/mobile#content/view/53512076 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I actually hoped for a S dip last night .. we couldn't have taken much more of a north move from where we were yesterday. Don't want to see much more of course but this is the problem with getting blasted run after run after run from so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Now, my question about the Euro op run earlier...What, hypothetically, would cause it to do something like that? HP too strong? JB's comment on it suggested that such a path wouldn't make sense with the current pattern (at least not to him). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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