Snowman. Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Deform bands destroy Annapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So the good news here is that the GFS may have gone south and east but precip seems to work none the less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Epic deform this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 3 feet in La Plata? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 So the good news here is that the GFS may have gone south and east but precip seems to work none the less But it didn't though. Not in any meaningful way. Stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 102hr GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Haha, Wes gets something like 40" in this run. DC with only 30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At this point, probably silly to take models seriously regarding where the deform bands will be, but a great sign that there will be deform bands like this somewhere, right? Great run so far Baltimore and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Bay effect action at hr 93 up the Chesapeake. Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wes will have to exit his house from the second floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's a hair south at H5 - it's not like a leap, though. It looks pretty similar overall to my eyes at the 500mb level on IWM. It's a tiny shift. Loop through all of today's runs on TropicalTidbits for the 6z Saturday timeframe. Aside from the 6z, which was somewhat farther north, the other 3 (0z, 12z, and now 18z) are pretty darn close to each other. Certainly well within a reasonable noise level for a 3-4 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 105 still going in central and NE MD & eastern shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 3 feet in La Plata? and my house. I'll be using my snow blower endlessly. It's a great cold run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is simply a region wide bullseye. 2'+ for everyone on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's a tiny shift. Loop through all of today's runs on TropicalTidbits for the 6z Saturday timeframe. Aside from the 6z, which was somewhat farther north, the other 3 (0z, 12z, and now 18z) are pretty darn close to each other. Certainly well within a reasonable noise level for a 3-4 day forecast. Yes I agree - it looked to my eyes like it could be a bit more than a tiny shift at first but it seemed like as it ran it looked like less and less of a big deal. Question I guess is whether it's a "tick" towards the Euro. Like you, my money is on noise. Beautiful storm. Sort of unbelievable the models are been so steady with this at longish leads. Consider me impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Perfect run for DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wes will have to exit his house from the second floor. I'm good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sweet comma head on this run. Right where we want to see it. not if it keeps shifting south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 SE bias? LOL! Great run! Can we start looking at levels for dendrite growth? I think it is a safe 10:1 until snow deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Perfect run for DC metro Agree. Wrap this in a bow and deliver it. The other nice part - heavy snow is now within 78 hours. Not fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At this point, probably silly to take models seriously regarding where the deform bands will be, but a great sign that there will be deform bands like this somewhere, right? Great run so far Baltimore and south. This^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 not if it keeps shifting south Ji...please...there was no south shift on this run. It's almost the same compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm new to the Northern VA area. I'm out in Herndon; A stone's throw from Dulles. Looking at some historical data it looks like this area gets dumped on pretty good in just about every snowstorm like this. Even with the Euro looking South, areas NW of the L are usually under-forecasted, right? I'm still a newb when it comes to all of this, but I have a feeling it will start snowing here earlier than Friday morning and that the ratio will be higher than forecasted due to the temperature. Can someone with much more knowledge than I have (So, basically any of you), tell me if I'm on the right train of thought here, or if I'm way off? I lived in Herndon for past 23 years and we do well. 28" in January 1996 storm with drifts over the roof of my house and our street was not plowed for more than 1 week. The February 5-6 2010 gave us 32" and no power for over 24 hours. Dulles Airport reported heavy snow every observation from 6 p.m. on Friday until 8 a.m. Saturday. PDII it snowed for days and left over 2ft in its wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 not if it keeps shifting south GFS has never really wavered or shifted anywhere tbh. It's wobbling around but hasn't had a single giant shift like we saw with the euro. The euro could have easily had a big deform band in our area given the h5 and slp progression. It just had everything compact. If the euro sticks to its guns tonight we can revisit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ji...please...there was no south shift on this run. It's almost the same compared to 12z. The surface low pressure south. Compare it to 6z on tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This vorticity is clearly something very special. Lightning, thunder, 4 inches/hour thundersnow perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS has never really wavered or shifted anywhere tbh. It's wobbling around but hasn't had a single giant shift like we saw with the euro. The euro could have easily had a big deform band in our area given the h5 and slp progression. It just had everything compact. If the euro sticks to its guns tonight we can revisit. For my house it is the best fantasy run of my life. I don't trust it but even the euro gives me 20 inches or so. Someone will get buried and someone who is just out of the buried zone will be ticked that they only got a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS has never really wavered or shifted anywhere tbh. It's wobbling around but hasn't had a single giant shift like we saw with the euro. The euro could have easily had a big deform band in our area given the h5 and slp progression. It just had everything compact. If the euro sticks to its guns tonight we can revisit. I mentioned above - it did seem like it had the potential to be a decent amount south earlier in the run but the run squashed those fears pretty quickly. I think sometimes we forget how complex our atmosphere is and how complex the models are as well. One tiny piece of energy can change the outcome down the line (which I know you know!). The simple fact is these models have done a really good job at leads with this storm even if they are off by a bit in the verification. Really neat to watch the NWP come together on this one...now let's hope there isn't a meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The surface low pressure south. Compare it to 6z on tidbits. why are you looking at 6z? Why not go look at 18z from two days ago to make a more worthless point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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