JC-CT Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 that's not quite true. The data feed to that site is completely unreliable, so the maps may not always come in. But the model is running every cycle, and when the maps are available for us to see, they can't be completely ignored. This is the next version of the ECWMF model; it has been thoroughly tested and approved for implementation in 7 weeks. It's not someone randomly tweaking parts of the model. It's scoring well. If you want to make the argument that this run from last night had basically zero support in today's deterministic and ensemble guidance (wish we could have seen the 12z ECMWF parallel), that is a better point to make. Strongly agree with all points you've made here. But it is the outlier it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here's our storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It has to be due to an easier setup for guidance to identify...we certainly haven't improved that much across all guidance that quickly. Isn't there a pretty good track record for major Miller A storms? They've historically been the easiest type for the models to sniff out. Even 1993 was well-forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It has to be due to an easier setup for guidance to identify...we certainly haven't improved that much across all guidance that quickly. If the storm pans out as modeled for days those running these models need to pour through the details to help figure out what works best and why. Could be a good research project. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://earthsky.org/earth/tides-and-the-pull-of-the-moon-and-sun Thanks. Never would have thought about some of that. I guess coastal flooding with the storm could be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 it is the NAM at 84. But this Composite Reflectivity is so juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 it is the NAM at 84. But this Composite Reflectivity is so juicy. Just a cautionary tale...tropical tidbits color scale for simulated reflectivity is a bit deceiving. Yellow is only 28dbz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just a cautionary tale...tropical tidbits color scale for simulated reflectivity is a bit deceiving. Yellow is only 28dbz. Maybe you see something I don't but it suggests it's somewhere between 28-32dbz. Either way it's the NAM and at the way end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 it is the NAM at 84. But this Composite Reflectivity is so juicy. Some bristle at mention of the NAM but it seemed in line with the others, maybe a touch slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just a cautionary tale...tropical tidbits color scale for simulated reflectivity is a bit deceiving. Yellow is only 28dbz. Ah. Thanks for pointing that out. Never noticed it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Through 48 hrs the 00z GFS is digging farther S than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not to get too off-topic here, but yeah, the ratios around DC and north weren't exactly great for that PD storm. It was very cold, but also as I remember it, kind of dry in the dendritic growth region around these parts. I still got 4" of pixie-dust from that all the same, but yeah, and under-performer. The initial thump was awesome...very showery snow that accumulated really well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS more amped than 18z for sure thru 60hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 60 GFS slightly faster with the primary loaded with moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Slightly faster slightly more amped, but really not all that different from last run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 SLP placement in NE MS at 75 at 1006mb... 78 in C TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 75 Primary is definitely stronger and west Loaded with gulf moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Look at all that precip. in western Tennessee. at 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 definitely more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 1006mb SLP C TN at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Faster, further north with primary. Will probably help with the thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At 84 its now ENE of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Snow gets in hr 84-87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6-7am start time for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Transfer ongoing at 90/93 it would appear, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 SLP nudges into KY hr 87 CAD still holding.. Transfer begins hr 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 500 mb low is weird looking on the NAM depiction, I hope it isn't going negative tilt too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Precip now starting for most under 90 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Was taught in school that warm air advection snow can arrive 1-3 hours ahead of what the model show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 1000mb SLP over ILM at 96 998mb SLP over HSE at 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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