WeSuck Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Para GFS gives DC area around 2.50"...some 3" spots in NOVA...we get smacked silly. The capture is beautiful this run. The low basically stalls before moving ene off NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Oh hai der How about those absurd 4 inch totals in Mississippi and sw Tennessee? Hopefully that translates here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The capture is beautiful this run. The low basically stalls before moving ene off NJ I like the Euro solution better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Para GFS gives DC area around 2.50"...some 3" spots in NOVA...we get smacked silly. nobody would care if it gave us 4.50. Until the euro shifts back to where it was...every other model run is useless unless they shift south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Can you comment on the strange triple closed low formation at hr 108 on the Op? Is that even possible because the CMC shows something very similar. I've never seen something like that in a model before that wasn't tossed as erroneous to my recollection... I'll have to defer there. I'm not sure why it does it. From what I can tell, the primary off of OBX get's tugged by the ULL and tucked into VA beach. But it could also be 2 low pressures. The primary off the coast and the secondary spawning from the ULL. Then weakens and the primary to the NE quickly deepens. Almost looks like a tug of war of sorts. And part of the reason why it looks so suspect. But it could also be totally plausible and I'm sure a met could do a much better job than me explaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'll have to defer there. I'm not sure why it does it. From what I can tell, the primary off of OBX get's tugged by the ULL and tucked into VA beach. But it could also be 2 low pressures. The primary off the coast and the secondary spawning from the ULL. Then weakens and the primary to the NE quickly deepens. Almost looks like a tug of war of sorts. And part of the reason why it looks so suspect. But it could also be totally plausible and I'm sure a met could do a much better job than me explaining. I can remember seeing something like this before. I think I have seen it both happen and also be a model issue. Very odd.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm new to the Northern VA area. I'm out in Herndon; A stone's throw from Dulles. Looking at some historical data it looks like this area gets dumped on pretty good in just about every snowstorm like this. Even with the Euro looking South, areas NW of the L are usually under-forecasted, right? I'm still a newb when it comes to all of this, but I have a feeling it will start snowing here earlier than Friday morning and that the ratio will be higher than forecasted due to the temperature. Can someone with much more knowledge than I have (So, basically any of you), tell me if I'm on the right train of thought here, or if I'm way off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 nobody would care if it gave us 4.50. Until the euro shifts back to where it was...every other model run is useless unless they shift south too I disagree..if the two GFS runs coming up say we are still good, then I will relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I like the Euro solution better... Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm new to the Northern VA area. I'm out in Herndon; A stone's throw from Dulles. Looking at some historical data it looks like this area gets dumped on pretty good in just about every snowstorm like this. Even with the Euro looking South, areas NW of the L are usually under-forecasted, right? I'm still a newb when it comes to all of this, but I have a feeling it will start snowing here earlier than Friday morning and that the ratio will be higher than forecasted due to the temperature. Can someone with much more knowledge than I have (So, basically any of you), tell me if I'm on the right train of thought here, or if I'm way off? I grew up in Sterling. You will usually mix in these big storms there. But yes you can get dumped on and usually do about the same as IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I disagree..if the two GFS runs coming up say we are still good, then I will relax.For an hour until the 00z Euro comes in even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z GFS at 63 has SLP in N AL at 1004mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS about the same.. maybe a bit south. Snowing good by about 10am in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS has onset of precip around 9-10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Heavy snow in DC at 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Very heavy snow throughout the area at hour 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Rakage ensues almost immediately Snowfall rates do not drop below 1"/hr through hr 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanW Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm new to the Northern VA area. I'm out in Herndon; A stone's throw from Dulles. Looking at some historical data it looks like this area gets dumped on pretty good in just about every snowstorm like this. Even with the Euro looking South, areas NW of the L are usually under-forecasted, right? I'm still a newb when it comes to all of this, but I have a feeling it will start snowing here earlier than Friday morning and that the ratio will be higher than forecasted due to the temperature. Can someone with much more knowledge than I have (So, basically any of you), tell me if I'm on the right train of thought here, or if I'm way off? By way of a serious answer -- I've lived in the MD/DC area for nearly 15 years. It's hard to say, but my feeling is you're right regarding areas NW of the lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 10-12 inches by 0z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS certainly has the front end thump- 5 inches in DC in 3 hours from 75-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Deform band sets up just west of DC hr 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Deform band sets up just west of DC hr 87 No, it sets up directly over DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS is solid. Much better deform band also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 the surface low pressure center is in the exact same location as the euro. The GFS shifted south by 50-100 miles compared to this mornings 6z However, we seem to do fine with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sweet comma head on this run. Right where we want to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 HOUR 93 HAS 3"+ PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 By way of a serious answer -- I've lived in the MD/DC area for nearly 15 years. It's hard to say, but my feeling is you're right regarding areas NW of the lows. The 18Z GFS did just that. Leesburg bulls-eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is going to be 3" QPF easy for DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's a hair south at H5 - it's not like a leap, though. It looks pretty similar overall to my eyes at the 500mb level on IWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 2' by 15z Saturday already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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