MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM'd basically...with more to come 12" on the ground with the 500 low in central KY. Oh NAM, never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM has the low in the exact same position as the GEM at the TN Kentucky border before it transfers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 so funny...its like you have 99 models that show a good solution and that one that dosent gets all the attention #euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At what range is NAM acceptable to use. It is a beauty if I ever saw one at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 so funny...its like you have 99 models that show a good solution and that one that dosent gets all the attention #euro Euro isn't even a bad solution for DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At what range is NAM acceptable to use. It is a beauty if I ever saw one at the end of its run. Usually under 48 I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What I take from the NAM at this range (which shouldn't be much), is that our front end thump is still alive and well, which the Euro kind of backed off from. So thats certainly positive. Although, it is the NAM at 70 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Mix line gets close to DC (just south) on NAM at hr 84 but 1) it's the NAM at hr 84 and 2) looks like that would be as far as it gets as the low starts to move off the NC coastline. Would be a 20+ inch solution likely... starts snowing around 72 hours (so 3 days to go). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM really speeds up the coast from 81-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Usually under 48 I think? Yeah...NAM at this range isn't very useful but it can get some victories within 48 hours, 12-24hrs is its wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Can we pay NCEP and get them to finish that run? that is pron dgex. Useless but pretty to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah...NAM at this range isn't very useful but it can get some victories within 48 hours, 12-24hrs is its wheelhouse. Its wheelhouse has been broken so many times in recent years! Time to retire or finance a major overhaul! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 dgex. Useless but pretty to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just got a chance to look at the euro ens. They look solid. The "tick" south on the mslp panels is mostly just getting rid of a bunch of lows that went over the tidewater or into the bay (which are not good placements for the corridor). Everything is tighter now and honestly looks pretty damn good. I wish I could post euro maps to give a picture to this but the op run did some weird things with precip. The knife edge cutoff was very suspect IMHO. When there is a sub 990 tucked right into VA beach you typically don't see such a gradient. Then the progression gets weird with multiple lows. The ULL pass is still pretty good even with the south shift. I'm no longer worried about the op solution and won't be until I see it happen again a bunch of times. Which I personally doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At what range is NAM acceptable to use. It is a beauty if I ever saw one at the end of its run. about the time when sticking your hand out the window works too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just got a chance to look at the euro ens. They look solid. The "tick" south on the mslp panels is mostly just getting rid of a bunch of lows that went over the tidewater or into the bay (which are not good placements for the corridor). Everything is tighter now and honestly looks pretty damn good. I wish I could post euro maps to give a picture to this but the op run did some weird things with precip. The knife edge cutoff was very suspect IMHO. When there is a sub 990 tucked right into VA beach you typically don't see such a gradient. Then the progression gets weird with multiple lows. The ULL pass is still pretty good even with the south shift. I'm no longer worried about the op solution and won't be until I see it happen again a bunch of times. Which I personally doubt. Thanks for the analysis. I know GEFS were also somewhat south.. but not by much. Seeing consensus and fine tuning is what we will be doing. I do not want any more shifts south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z para gfs is a straight up mauling again. Phase/capture and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS vs Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just got a chance to look at the euro ens. They look solid. The "tick" south on the mslp panels is mostly just getting rid of a bunch of lows that went over the tidewater or into the bay (which are not good placements for the corridor). Everything is tighter now and honestly looks pretty damn good. I wish I could post euro maps to give a picture to this but the op run did some weird things with precip. The knife edge cutoff was very suspect IMHO. When there is a sub 990 tucked right into VA beach you typically don't see such a gradient. Then the progression gets weird with multiple lows. The ULL pass is still pretty good even with the south shift. I'm no longer worried about the op solution and won't be until I see it happen again a bunch of times. Which I personally doubt. yea looking at the members the # of south members didn't actually go up. There have been about 10-15 out of the 52 each run. But we lost some of the crazy inland solutions that were mixing even up here. That moved the mean south a bit. Agree with funky look of op euro. I've remained mostly quiet because given my location people might just figure of course he thinks that but I was fairly confident we would see a south move day 3-4 and then a trend back north the last 48 hours. By that I don't mean bad for anyone here, when it's over with qpf Max over va and higher ratios over md and southern pa I think we all get crushed. Final axis of snow might resemble 83/96 or slightly south of those 2. This thing is going to be a juiced monster and qpf will adjust on the northern edge as usual. Euro has been digging too much lately also. We just saw it get schooled because of that. I think this whole forum is on a great spot for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z para gfs is a straight up mauling again. Phase/capture and boom. Starts in DC around 8-9am Friday. That seems key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not sure if this was posted but found this interesting. Per http://wjla.com/news/local/top-10-highest-one-day-snowfall-totals-for-the-dc-region and http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr#TopDaySnowfall (1-3 Day Totals) Top 10 Highest One Day Snowfall Totals Jan 28, 1922 - 21.0 inches Feb 11, 1983 - 16.4 inches Dec 19, 2009 - 15.0 inches Feb 7, 1936 - 14.4 inches Feb 19, 1979 - 14.0 inches Feb 16, 2003 - 13.3 inches Jan 7, 1996 - 13.0 inches Feb 15, 1958 - 12.9 inches Jan 29, 1966 - 12.0 inches Feb 13, 1899 - 12.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The NAM is basically useless for anything in this kind of storm. I think by Thursday, it will be worth looking at to assess potential for convection in the deform band. It has a HUGE positive bias on precip in heavy precip events (as I think most of us know), so be prepared for some epic NAMing's, but don't conflate that with reality. This past 12z run (or maybe tonight's 0z) is probably the last time I'd give the ensembles more weight than the Ops. So, if the Euro Op continues to be on the southern edge of the other guidance, that's obviously more problematic going forward, even if the ensemble means differ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS vs Op Well that is not very good agreement. Thats a good sign I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 yea looking at the members the # of south members didn't actually go up. There have been about 10-15 out of the 52 each run. But we lost some of the crazy inland solutions that were mixing even up here. That moved the mean south a bit. Agree with funky look of op euro. I've remained mostly quiet because given my location people might just figure of course he thinks that but I was fairly confident we would see a south move day 3-4 and then a trend back north the last 48 hours. By that I don't mean bad for anyone here, when it's over with qpf Max over va and higher ratios over md and southern pa I think we all get crushed. Final axis of snow might resemble 83/96 or slightly south of those 2. This thing is going to be a juiced monster and qpf will adjust on the northern edge as usual. Euro has been digging too much lately also. We just saw it get schooled because of that. I think this whole forum is on a great spot for a change. Great post. And we always see the northern cutoff modeled poorly. The precip shield seems to always expand the closer we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The NAM is basically useless for anything in this kind of storm. I think by Thursday, it will be worth looking at to assess potential for convection in the deform band. It has a HUGE positive bias on precip in heavy precip events (as I think most of us know), so be prepared for some epic NAMing's, but don't conflate that with reality. This past 12z run (or maybe tonight's 0z) is probably the last time I'd give the ensembles more weight than the Ops. So, if the Euro Op continues to be on the southern edge of the other guidance, that's obviously more problematic going forward, even if the ensemble means differ. But, interestingly, the NAM's juice late in this run corresponds to a T to the GFS (operational and Para), GGEM, & JMA. How many times have we seen that? I can't recall any except with 12/09 and 2/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not sure if this was posted but found this interesting. Per http://wjla.com/news/local/top-10-highest-one-day-snowfall-totals-for-the-dc-region and http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr#TopDaySnowfall Top 10 Highest One Day Snowfall Totals Jan 28, 1922 - 21.0 inches Feb 11, 1983 - 16.4 inches Dec 19, 2009 - 15.0 inches Feb 7, 1936 - 14.4 inches Feb 19, 1979 - 14.0 inches Feb 16, 2003 - 13.3 inches Jan 7, 1996 - 13.0 inches Feb 15, 1958 - 12.9 inches Jan 29, 1966 - 12.0 inches Feb 13, 1899 - 12.0 inches Top 1, 2 and 3-day stats for DCA, IAD and BWI can be found here: http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr#TopDaySnowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just got a chance to look at the euro ens. They look solid. The "tick" south on the mslp panels is mostly just getting rid of a bunch of lows that went over the tidewater or into the bay (which are not good placements for the corridor). Everything is tighter now and honestly looks pretty damn good. I wish I could post euro maps to give a picture to this but the op run did some weird things with precip. The knife edge cutoff was very suspect IMHO. When there is a sub 990 tucked right into VA beach you typically don't see such a gradient. Then the progression gets weird with multiple lows. The ULL pass is still pretty good even with the south shift. I'm no longer worried about the op solution and won't be until I see it happen again a bunch of times. Which I personally doubt. Can you comment on the strange triple closed low formation at hr 108 on the Op? Is that even possible because the CMC shows something very similar. I've never seen something like that in a model before that wasn't tossed as erroneous to my recollection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Para GFS gives DC area around 2.50"...some 3" spots in NOVA...we get smacked silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z para gfs is a straight up mauling again. Phase/capture and boom. Oh hai der Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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