PhineasC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I remember the storms in 09-10 always had a CHO bullseye at this range. Models loved painting purples over them. Always ended up north in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I remember the storms in 09-10 always had a CHO bullseye at this range. Models loved painting purples over them. Always ended up north in the end. Anyone remember final qpf outputs from it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I remember the storms in 09-10 always had a CHO bullseye at this range. Models loved painting purples over them. Always ended up north in the end. Plus, the operational Euro gives Boston 1.5" of snow, and we know that ain't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Anyone remember final qpf outputs from it? These numbers I confirmed. BWI had 2.55" from 2/6/10 and DCA had exactly 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just looked at the GEM for the first time today and all is good now. It expanded the heaviest snows north when compared to 0z, and it was also the first model to key in on the huge snow amounts. Hasn't really wavered at all the past few days. Euro will definately come north based off of climo, and the fact that high pressures have been verifying weaker than projected. Right now there is a 1032 high over the Midwest when all the models had a 1035-1036 (Euro was 1036), so I highly doubt this storm verifies south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nam looks more potent and slight faster at 48 compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'd be much more worried of the euro had shifted things north of mason Dixon... We can work with a mid virginia precip jackpot since we won't mix and ratios will be in our favorBingo. Very good science with this.Every winter there's at least one system where the models underdo the snow output farther north along the QPF gradient, when afterwards the I70 and north folks always seem to get it in the end. It's not just elevation folks. I'd rather be on the north end (not in the QPF bullseye) where I've got a better moisture and UVV profile in the -12 to -18C or "max dendritic growth zone" than to be IN the QPF bullseye with the best moisture/UVVs in the -5 to -10C layer. Ratios farther north, i.e. more dendrites, more than compensate. Don't give up yet northerners.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 AND NOW FOR SOMETHING REALLY INTERESTING the storm of RECORD for RICHMOND and much of central VA that dropped 22 inches of snow occurred in JAN 1940 as in JAN 22-24 1940 .. anyone look at the dates this weekend ? JAN 22 -23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'd say 35 or so are still huge hits PA border south. Yeah, it really doesn't look bad. Mean is still pretty good as well. Looks like about 15" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Keep in mind I was referring to Euro Op, not EPS, but... Nice and cold. Do we know where the storm exits the coast? The 850 low rides up the coast of the Carolinas before slipping offshore near ILM @ 6Z Sat. Then it does the weird multiple L thing the CMC did. I wonder why these models are predicting this multiple-L solution offshore... what would cause that? That seems like a pretty big cut. Weren't last nights 2.5 for DC? Yes. Last night it was 2.5 for DCA, 2.9 for IAD and 2.3 for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I remember the storms in 09-10 always had a CHO bullseye at this range. Models loved painting purples over them. Always ended up north in the end.Did something like this really happen back then? (Do you remember anything else about how the models trended leading up to the day of?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 euro eps has then in 4 to 7" and that may too high Plus, the operational Euro gives Boston 1.5" of snow, and we know that ain't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 As Ian said All 51 ens members give DC snow...a few are paltry, but no misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FOLKS NEED TO RELAX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Did something like this really happen back then? (Do you remember anything else about how the models trended leading up to the day of?) I will agree with that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM, fwiw, is a touch slower than 12Z thru 57 hrs. We'll see if that = further south or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Through hr. 60 the NAM looks pretty much exactly like 12z. We may just get nam'd this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We know RIC isn't getting 24 inches. This will come north. I said this in the SNE forum, forecasting a 1 in 500 year event or whatever the F this would be is so dangerous 3-4 days out. The tendency in the end is to see the more climo favored areas getting those amounts. It doesn't mean it cannot happen but I hate forecasting record events or trusting guidance that shows it unless the evidence is overwhelming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM, fwiw, is a touch slower than 12Z thru 57 hrs. We'll see if that = further south or not. Looks fine.. really no change in track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z NAM beginning the transfer at hr 75-78 looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nice!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS 500mb 12z yesterday vs today - shows a minor tick south, and greater consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM looks nice at 500vort at 72 hr. Looks juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FWIW. Total Snowfall of NAM at 84hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM looks fine I think...low starts to transfer south of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM'd basically...with more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM is a crushing............but who knows at that range for it. You have to say that it is in line with other models.....the exception being the Euro outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Transfer just about complete at hr 84... rakeage ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM is a front end thump beatdown. 17-18 inches IMBY through 84? Yeah. I'm good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.