WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We knew it could not get any better so what is left is getting worse. Will bounce around now 50 to 75 miles every 6 hours as too risky for it to lock onto something I like the baro. presentation today 72 hours from onset. 30.3ish which is very good and not suppressive so I thinknwhen clipper zips under us Wednesday night we end up supplied with about the same Baro Thursday into onset, about 30.3 which is stellar starting point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 15z SREF's are south it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM/UKMET/ECMWF BLENDCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PACIFIC COASTNEAR THE OR/CA BOARDER WITH A LARGER SCALE BROADER NORTHERN STREAMTROF TRAILING IT AND FORECAST TO COME ASHORE OR/WA. OVERALL THEMODELS ARE QUITE AGREEABLE WITH THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE TWOFEATURES INTO A LARGER DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINSTHURSDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTING EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BYTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS WELL REPRESENTED INRELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD IN THE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS BY DAY 3. THE12Z CMC REMAINS THE MAIN OUTLIER BEING THE FASTEST AND GENERALLYNARROWEST OF THE WAVE BY DAY 3 HOWEVER HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWERTHAN ITS 00Z RUN INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS...THOUGHMAINLY AT 5H...AS THE CMC REMAINS FAST WITH THE SURFACE COASTALLOW/7H AND IS VERY COLD AT IN THE THERMAL FIELDS COMPARATIVELY) TOKEEP IT OUT OF THE PREFERENCES. SYNOPTICALLY (MASS FIELDS) THEREIS FAIRLY STRONG CONFIDENCE OVERALL. HOWEVER...INTERNALDIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AS WELL ASTHERMAL GRADIENTS RESULT IN SPREAD IN THE IMPACTS (PARTICULARLYSNOW/ICE/QPF)...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST QPFHSD AND QPFPFD FOR THESEFINER DETAILS.INTERNALLY SPEAKING...THE 12Z NAM IS QUITE STRONG WITH THE CENTEROF THE UPPER LOW AND IS GENERALLY CENTRAL TO THE OVERALL MODELSPREAD ALONG THE CENTRAL KY/TN BOARDER BY THE END OF DAY 3. ASSUCH THIS ALLOWS THE NAM TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKERTRANSFERRING ENERGY TO THE COASTAL LOW. THE 12Z GFS HAS REMAINEDCONSISTENT WITH PRIOR RUNS AND IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THEGUIDANCE SHIFTING TOWARD E KY/S WV BY DAY 3...WHICH SEEMS A BITOUT OF PLACE DEEPENING INTO MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW AT THISTIME PERIOD. TO FURTHER QUESTION THE 12Z GFS...THE 12Z UKMETFOLLOWED BY THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWEST WITH THE CENTEROF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY DAY3. TO FURTHER COMPOUND ISSUES WITH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...THE12Z GEFS IS MORE CENTRAL AND QUITE AGREEABLE WITH THE 12Z ECENSMEAN AND 12Z NAM. THIS BUILDS SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE MOVINGTOWARD A UKMET/ECMWF/NAM BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THEENSEMBLE SPREAD WHILE THE GFS IS ON THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCHSUPPORT A 12Z GEFS/00Z ECENS MEAN BLEND WHICH APPEARS BESTREPRESENTED BY THE 12Z NAM/UKMET/ECMWF BLEND. AS CONFIDENCE INTHE OVERALL SYSTEM/UPPER LOW IS HIGH BUT SPREAD IN INTERNALWAVES/UPPER LOW CENTROID DIFFERENCES IS LESSER SO... OVERALLCONFIDENCE REMAINS AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So just to summarize from 0z last night to 12z today: Euro : Shifts south UK: Shifts south GFS: Holds steady CMC: Holds steady JMA: Holds steady NAM: looks like GFS type scenario at 84 Will be interesting to see Euro Ens members and GFS Ens members to see how many show this south trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Question, I assume we would have better snow rates up here if the Euro solution is correct so we could still see a bit more than what the 10:1 snow maps are showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 15z SREF's are south it looks like. Are the SREFs even in range yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 15z SREF's are south it looks like. I don't think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 15z SREF's are south it looks like. Nope, Nothing like the Euro south, at least with the 700rh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So just to summarize from 0z last night to 12z today: Euro : Shifts south UK: Shifts south GFS: Holds steady CMC: Holds steady JMA: Holds steady NAM: looks like GFS type scenario at 84 Will be interesting to see Euro Ens members and GFS Ens members to see how many show this south trend! GEFS were major hits for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 um the GEFS and GFS came south at 12z So just to summarize from 0z last night to 12z today: Euro : Shifts south UK: Shifts south GFS: Holds steady CMC: Holds steady JMA: Holds steady NAM: looks like GFS type scenario at 84 Will be interesting to see Euro Ens members and GFS Ens members to see how many show this south trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM/UKMET/ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE A WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR THE OR/CA BOARDER WITH A LARGER SCALE BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROF TRAILING IT AND FORECAST TO COME ASHORE OR/WA. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE QUITE AGREEABLE WITH THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE TWO FEATURES INTO A LARGER DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTING EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS WELL REPRESENTED IN RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD IN THE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS BY DAY 3. THE 12Z CMC REMAINS THE MAIN OUTLIER BEING THE FASTEST AND GENERALLY NARROWEST OF THE WAVE BY DAY 3 HOWEVER HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z RUN INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS...THOUGH MAINLY AT 5H...AS THE CMC REMAINS FAST WITH THE SURFACE COASTAL LOW/7H AND IS VERY COLD AT IN THE THERMAL FIELDS COMPARATIVELY) TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE PREFERENCES. SYNOPTICALLY (MASS FIELDS) THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG CONFIDENCE OVERALL. HOWEVER...INTERNAL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS THERMAL GRADIENTS RESULT IN SPREAD IN THE IMPACTS (PARTICULARLY SNOW/ICE/QPF)...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST QPFHSD AND QPFPFD FOR THESE FINER DETAILS. INTERNALLY SPEAKING...THE 12Z NAM IS QUITE STRONG WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND IS GENERALLY CENTRAL TO THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD ALONG THE CENTRAL KY/TN BOARDER BY THE END OF DAY 3. AS SUCH THIS ALLOWS THE NAM TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO THE COASTAL LOW. THE 12Z GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR RUNS AND IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING TOWARD E KY/S WV BY DAY 3...WHICH SEEMS A BIT OUT OF PLACE DEEPENING INTO MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW AT THIS TIME PERIOD. TO FURTHER QUESTION THE 12Z GFS...THE 12Z UKMET FOLLOWED BY THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWEST WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY DAY 3. TO FURTHER COMPOUND ISSUES WITH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...THE 12Z GEFS IS MORE CENTRAL AND QUITE AGREEABLE WITH THE 12Z ECENS MEAN AND 12Z NAM. THIS BUILDS SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE MOVING TOWARD A UKMET/ECMWF/NAM BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WHILE THE GFS IS ON THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH SUPPORT A 12Z GEFS/00Z ECENS MEAN BLEND WHICH APPEARS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z NAM/UKMET/ECMWF BLEND. AS CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SYSTEM/UPPER LOW IS HIGH BUT SPREAD IN INTERNAL WAVES/UPPER LOW CENTROID DIFFERENCES IS LESSER SO... OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS AVERAGE. lol @ using the NAM at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't think so sref_namer_087_mslp.gif I mean the precip shifted south, but it is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't think so sref_namer_087_mslp.gif h5 chart to compare with SLP chart posted above : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 very curious about the Euro ensembles and the Euro Para-op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 very curious about the Euro ensembles and the Euro Para-op When does the Euro para OP come out? Same time as the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't know why I'm doing this (except that I'm a weenie), but the SREF's look fine when considering 250mb winds at 87 hrs. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_087_250_wnd.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=250_wnd&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+15+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM/UKMET/ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE A WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR THE OR/CA BOARDER WITH A LARGER SCALE BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROF TRAILING IT AND FORECAST TO COME ASHORE OR/WA. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE QUITE AGREEABLE WITH THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE TWO FEATURES INTO A LARGER DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTING EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS WELL REPRESENTED IN RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD IN THE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS BY DAY 3. THE 12Z CMC REMAINS THE MAIN OUTLIER BEING THE FASTEST AND GENERALLY NARROWEST OF THE WAVE BY DAY 3 HOWEVER HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z RUN INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS...THOUGH MAINLY AT 5H...AS THE CMC REMAINS FAST WITH THE SURFACE COASTAL LOW/7H AND IS VERY COLD AT IN THE THERMAL FIELDS COMPARATIVELY) TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE PREFERENCES. SYNOPTICALLY (MASS FIELDS) THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG CONFIDENCE OVERALL. HOWEVER...INTERNAL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS THERMAL GRADIENTS RESULT IN SPREAD IN THE IMPACTS (PARTICULARLY SNOW/ICE/QPF)...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST QPFHSD AND QPFPFD FOR THESE FINER DETAILS. INTERNALLY SPEAKING...THE 12Z NAM IS QUITE STRONG WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND IS GENERALLY CENTRAL TO THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD ALONG THE CENTRAL KY/TN BOARDER BY THE END OF DAY 3. AS SUCH THIS ALLOWS THE NAM TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO THE COASTAL LOW. THE 12Z GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR RUNS AND IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING TOWARD E KY/S WV BY DAY 3...WHICH SEEMS A BIT OUT OF PLACE DEEPENING INTO MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW AT THIS TIME PERIOD. TO FURTHER QUESTION THE 12Z GFS...THE 12Z UKMET FOLLOWED BY THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWEST WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY DAY 3. TO FURTHER COMPOUND ISSUES WITH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...THE 12Z GEFS IS MORE CENTRAL AND QUITE AGREEABLE WITH THE 12Z ECENS MEAN AND 12Z NAM. THIS BUILDS SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE MOVING TOWARD A UKMET/ECMWF/NAM BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WHILE THE GFS IS ON THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH SUPPORT A 12Z GEFS/00Z ECENS MEAN BLEND WHICH APPEARS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z NAM/UKMET/ECMWF BLEND. AS CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SYSTEM/UPPER LOW IS HIGH BUT SPREAD IN INTERNAL WAVES/UPPER LOW CENTROID DIFFERENCES IS LESSER SO... OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 When does the Euro para OP come out? Same time as the EPS? 12z para didn't come out at all yesterday, but if it does I think it would be closer to 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 When does the Euro para OP come out? Same time as the EPS? 12z para didn't come out at all yesterday, but if it does I think it would be closer to 7pm hopefully around dinner time..sometimes the ensembles show up and not the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 um the GEFS and GFS came south at 12z Left is 12z Low placement from GFS right is 0z. it did come south about as far as I can throw a rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbgCant post images But WPC is fine issued 1844z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The capture is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hard to believe we go from 3'+ to flurries in 24 hours...the truth mostly likely lies in the middle for the Shenandoah Valley 12-16 inches. We dont go to flurries. We would still be in the 8-14 range. And I would be ecstatic with that. And you should know the drill by now out here. We would make up for a lot of it with awesome ratio's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The euro based off of Eurowx still gives immediate DC area 18-24 inches with more south...It really isn't that bad until you get north of I70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What's the wpc? Weather Prediction Center http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Paul Kocin offers some good, sensible analysis Nothing like a new model run (ecmwf) to dampen some enthusiasm. However, and a big however, you can't live and die with each forecast cycle! There are plenty more cycles to run. So far, there has been really good agreement on the big picture. But those details! Any trends in speed and how far north/south will make or break this forecast. There will likely be an area that looks primo, at least right now. That's likely to be between DC and Philadelphia. Uncertainty increases north and south. North with the possible sharp boundary with little vs lots of snow. That's the case so far NYC and Boston. Uncertainty increases south with mixing issues...Virginia. Looks like 1-2 feet in the max, 30 possible. Where? You tell me. This is how these systems typically work. Some are horribly unpredictable (or parts are....) but some are relatively predictable, like this one appears to be, just like Snowmageddon in Feb 2010, one of those cases. We will see. But it is likely that any trends in speed and north vs south will likely be key in the next few days. My thoughts https://www.facebook.com/pkocin/posts/10209691786954670 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Paul Kocin offers some good, sensible analysis https://www.facebook.com/pkocin/posts/10209691786954670 Good stuff, thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z EPS is south..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z EPS is south..... It's south of 0z but north of OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z EPS is south..... It is further north than the OP, plus gets decent precip well north of OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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