Yeoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ?? dude 12 hrs the 0z run for RIC had 2" of snow GEFS 5" What's your analysis of this run? Realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Almost half of the snow totals through the corridor come from a narrow deform band (2 counties wide) as the low departs. Totals look good. Details look a little scary. Point of fact, an awful way to try and save snow totals - too easy to have that set up south or east. Completely gone on that run is anything on the front side, basically, no over-running from the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah, you are skilled at this but does it make sense meteorologically that the 500 mb low should move east in this situation? My understanding is that as these troughs deepen, they tend to move poleward and in this situation, there is no convergence zone north of the trough. So why would it trend east rather than NE? It's pretty crazy at the surface too. It looks weird. 986 low about 100 miles SSE of OBX but then the ULL grabs it and tucks a 985 right over VA beach. Then stretched out double barrel style low as it departs. Northern edge is absolutely brutal. I'm sure it's possible but it looks a little crazy when you loop the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Almost half of the snow totals through the corridor come from a narrow deform band (2 counties wide) as the low departs. Totals look good. Details look a little scary. That's something to think about for sure...we definitely don't want to rely on a deform band 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 A few thoughts from a lurker... Each model run is more important than the last. When the latest run of the best model out there makes a shift, you should take notice and not just assume it is some sort of blip. Watching the storms over the years, they typically do tend to shift to the NW as the vent draws near. This winter, however, is not a typical winter and with the strong confluence to the north that is far from a guarantee. My $.02 At this point it's too early to know. It could be a legit change, but unless it stays consistent and/or other guidance makes similar shifts, you can't just make such a rash change to the forecast. Also being the best model isn't the same as always being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's pretty crazy at the surface too. It looks weird. 986 low about 100 miles SSE of OBX but then the ULL grabs it and tucks a 985 right over VA beach. Then stretched out double barrel style low as it departs. Northern edge is absolutely brutal. I'm sure it's possible but it looks a little crazy when you loop the panels. Different set-up obviously, but didn't something similar happen with that March 2013 snow that we didn't get (white rain basically) while south central Virginia cashed in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Almost half of the snow totals through the corridor come from a narrow deform band (2 counties wide) as the low departs. Totals look good. Details look a little scary.Definetly a bothersome run. Delayed is rarely good in itself. Plus is it won't take much to get it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 50 mile bump north and all is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 JMA is money 988 off wachapregue VA http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016011912&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=337 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Definetly a bothersome run. Delayed is rarely good in itself. Plus is it won't take much to get it back. Euro hanging things back per usual? Maybe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Well, one thing for sure. This run confirms my old motto "delay is never de-way" to get a great storm. But we all need to remember that this is one run and still a crippling storm for most in the megalopolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Definetly a bothersome run. Delayed is rarely good in itself. Plus is it won't take much to get it back.Agreed, we can't ignore it, but we also can't embrace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 50 mile bump north and all is well. I liken this to a catch/non-catch call in a football game. Officials will go "under the hood", look at the EPS, and come back and "wave off" the operational EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 JMA is money 988 off wachapregue VA http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016011912&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=337 HUGE hit!. Better maps for days 4 & 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FDK QPF? Thanks... 0.3 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 JMA is money 988 off wachapregue VA http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016011912&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=337 It moved the precip max south quite a bit compared to 12z yesterday. Yesterday the 2" line stretched from S PA to RIC. Today it's DCA to the NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It moved the precip max south quite a bit compared to 12z yesterday. Yesterday the 2" line stretched from S PA to RIC. Today it's DCA to the NC border. I don't think it captures at the h5, unless I'm reading it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I liken this to a catch/non-catch call in a football game. Officials will go "under the hood", look at the EPS, and come back and "wave off" the operational EC Hopefully so Though haven't the EPS been almost in lockstep with the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Don't forget the old Norm McDonald adage that Bernie Rayno reminded us of yesterday in his video that the storm usually exists the east coast where it entered the west coast. Meaning, it's coming in around Oregon/Washington, so it should make it up the east coast. to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm not worried about the 12z Euro being south, not yet. 12z NAVGEM is a little bit like the Euro tho. I would bet on EPS Mean still being good south of MD/PA Border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's not an HECS unless you get a run that cause the Mappy's, PSUHoffman's, and WinterWxLuvrs of the weenie world to start worrying about suppression 72 hours out... Then they jackpot 72 hours later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It moved the precip max south quite a bit compared to 12z yesterday. Yesterday the 2" line stretched from S PA to RIC. Today it's DCA to the NC border. Idk Bob, those maps I posted show BWI at 2.25" adding the minimum numbers in the scale. But maybe your maps have better resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wes just told people to get a grip and that small variations are to be expected with the upper level feature still in the Pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Reposting because this got lost in the banter thread and we're between model runs: What's the lead time for data going into the 12z models? I mean, do they incorporate data right up until they start to run, or is there some sort of new data cut-off a couple of hours beforehands for the programs to compile and assimilate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wes just told people to get a grip and that small variations are to be expected with the upper level feature still in the Pacific It was in the banter thread as well... But yes, we all should know by now that there will be shifts north 50 miles or south 50 miles each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Thats quite a contrast between IAD and DCA... wow Although, DCA will report 12 off that 20, so it won't look so different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Bernie Rayno's thoughts: http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/snowstorm-and-difficult-travel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's not an HECS unless you get a run that cause the Mappy's, PSUHoffman's, and WinterWxLuvrs of the weenie world to start worrying about suppression 72 hours out... Then they jackpot 72 hours later... No worry here. Thanks though for your concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Guys, look at the SV Map, it looks better because of temperature, looks like 2" south of PA Turnpike, 6" from like Hagerstown to York , RIC Jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Don't forget the old Norm McDonald adage that Bernie Rayno reminded us of yesterday in his video that the storm usually exists the east coast where it entered the west coast. Meaning, it's coming in around Oregon/Washington, so it should make it up the east coast. to NE. Meh, I wouldn't take it the rule of thumb to the bank. Models have been getting more bullish on confluence to the north. One thing I would keep an eye on is the Euro's recent tendency to bury the s/w too far south. Yesterday morning's ocean storm is a fine example. Four days out and the Euro had it down in Mexico, while the GFS brought it across the Gulf coast. GFS verified far better. We'll see. Not too worried for you guys, but we New Englanders may smoke some cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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