Yeoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm actually happy with this.. you know all guidance will shift north some over the next couple of days. It always does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I just digs deeper early on and keeps everything south. It's the same solution synoptically just in a different place. lol Like March of 2013, say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm actually happy with this.. you know all guidance will shift north some over the next couple of days. It always does... agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 charlottsville is like 30 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 When was the last time a HECS maxed out over Central VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm actually happy with this.. you know all guidance will shift north some over the next couple of days. It always does... yep.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How about Nokesville....Ji wanted me to ask 22-24. SBY 19. I think in most cases this is exactly where we'd want to be at this range but it's a little disconcerting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 RIC hasn't had over a foot in what....30 year? When was the last time a HECS maxed out over Central VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For those asking about eastern MD, DE- Per Wx Bell maps: 18 Dover 22 Easton 24 Cambridge 19 SBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hard to believe we go from 3'+ to flurries in 24 hours...the truth mostly likely lies in the middle for the Shenandoah Valley 12-16 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS and GEFS are money so maybe it is outlier. Or maybe now that is on shore there is more data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 yep.. I'll third that...we're famous for 72 hour snowstorms that fade north by 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 RIC hasn't had over a foot in what....30 year? Think RIC had a foot in one of the late Jan 2010 storms that missed scraped D.C., like a week before Feb 5/6 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 yep.. I've been waiting for this. Of course hoping it wouldn't happen. But we've never had a long lead storm not scare us a few times as we close in. Euro could be right of course but I would have to assume this is probably close to as south as you can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm curious to see how the GFS follows with this, or if this was a blip as some suspect. I get the feeling between now and Friday we are going to see more of these changes in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 wxbell snowmap: 20 DCA 11 IAD 16 BWI 1 HGR 30+ Fredericksburg and south Thats quite a contrast between IAD and DCA... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 22-24. SBY 19. I think in most cases this is exactly where we'd want to be at this range but it's a little disconcerting nonetheless. Thanks Ian. Better than two inches of slop then cold rain. Don't expect it to hold though. The Atlantic is awfully warm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Would someone mind giving NHK for those of us in southern MD? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS and GEFS are money so maybe it is outlier. Or maybe now that is on shore there is more data. I doubt it...GFS would have saw it too. As Bob said, this is probably an off S run. I don't see it going any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If it's any comfort the GFS blew away the ECMWF with the last system. Which means absolutely nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I've been waiting for this. Of course hoping it wouldn't happen. But we've never had a long lead storm not scare us a few times as we close in. Euro could be right of course but I would have to assume this is probably close to as south as you can go. I agree. We were due for a weird run like this. Oddly it still has me basically the same at 20". I am on the northern edge of the good stuff instead of the southern edge lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golia1w Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Think RIC had a foot in one of the late Jan 2010 storms that missed D.C., like a week before Feb 5/6 2010. RIC hasn't had a foot since 1983, I think. Other parts of the metro area, yes, Jan 2010 is I believe the most recent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 And (hopefully not banter), I'd rather be on the colder side at this point. Hard to believe with the anomalously warm Atlantic shelf waters and such a dynamic system we won't see a nudge back northward. At least for the cities on east. I think you remember RIC being in the bullseye 48 hours out in 2003, and how it worked out. IIRC, those same NWP schemes showed nothing north of Baltimore and widespread 2'+ for all of CVA but clearly did not come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ?? dude 12 hrs the 0z run for RIC had 2" of snow GEFS 5" The GFS and GEFS are money so maybe it is outlier. Or maybe now that is on shore there is more data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro went way south with the storm just a few days ago only to come back north in the end. Remember it buried it into Cuba at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I just digs deeper early on and keeps everything south. It's the same solution synoptically just in a different place. lol Yeah, you are skilled at this but does it make sense meteorologically that the 500 mb low should move east in this situation? My understanding is that as these troughs deepen, they tend to move poleward and in this situation, there is no convergence zone north of the trough. So why would it trend east rather than NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 A few thoughts from a lurker... Each model run is more important than the last. When the latest run of the best model out there makes a shift, you should take notice and not just assume it is some sort of blip. Watching the storms over the years, they typically do tend to shift to the NW as the vent draws near. This winter, however, is not a typical winter and with the strong confluence to the north that is far from a guarantee. My $.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FDK QPF? Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Almost half of the snow totals through the corridor come from a narrow deform band (2 counties wide) as the low departs. Totals look good. Details look a little scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 A few thoughts from a lurker... Each model run is more important than the last. When the latest run of the best model out there makes a shift, you should take notice and not just assume it is some sort of blip. Watching the storms over the years, they typically do tend to shift to the NW as the vent draws near. This winter, however, is not a typical winter and with the strong confluence to the north that is far from a guarantee. My $.02 This makes sense, but we've seen a shift NW (in the limited instances we've seen dynamic systems) this winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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