yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lock up the GEFS at 90 and 96... esp h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not that it matters, but I figured I'd note with the UL evolution of the GGEM, if it were to not have that double low structure at the surface, would probably have dropped those 40" totals right over us. May just be noise too much dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 B word type winds on the GEFS too it would seem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wow those are huge totals for the mean. Does seem like no matter how the storm evolves it still blasts DCA/BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Man. Im trying to work and look at models at the same time. Work is suffering. The 12z gfs run is the dream scenario for our area. Everyone. Gets close to 2 feet. The gem is the dream track for the Shenandoah valley. And is similar to the euro snow totals but it gets there a different way. Its awesome that we can have different solutions still crush all of us. Its because of that perfect 500 level that is being depicted on all of the models. We wont know who gets that defirm band until game time regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is pretty much unfathomable for an ensemble forecast.. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 To get an idea of forecast confidence leading up to 2/5-6/10, click on articles here: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/01/31-week/ At least for CWG, there was much less confidence *two* days ahead for 2/5-6/10 than what Wes/Jason are expressing today *three* days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 and those are the ensembles..amazing stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 To get an idea of forecast confidence leading up to 2/5-6/10, click on articles here: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/01/31-week/ At least for CWG, there was much less confidence *two* days ahead for 2/5-6/10 than what Wes/Jason are expressing today *three* days ahead. There were multiple model upgrades and more tools since then, but interesting comparison for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Bunch of big hits and two whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lot of 30 inch+ members on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 #5, 7, and 11 would put me in a place I may never come back from...but good god man. What a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks much more progressive than prior versions but great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Definite shift back e/se on max on GEFS members since 0z at least. But think we're still seeing stuff mostly bounce around within bounds that have set up. Better to have that kind of shift than north at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Also should consider we're getting inside range where ens might not be the best tool of bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Incredible consensus for 4 day leads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Also should consider we're getting inside range where ens might not be the best tool of bunch. I thought it was 72 hrs out we focus more on OP than on ensemble runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Also should consider we're getting inside range where ens might not be the best tool of bunch. Was thinking exactly the same thing when I saw your post. Also, will someone take the time and explain what exactly a "full capture" is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Also should consider we're getting inside range where ens might not be the best tool of bunch. Agreed. With this specific event, ops are probably best right now. Which is unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think right now, we are actually in a situation where all of the major operationals are serving as an ensemble since they are in such agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Definite shift back e/se on max on GEFS members since 0z at least. But think we're still seeing stuff mostly bounce around within bounds that have set up. Better to have that kind of shift than north at this point. Models can never get the banding right. The up-front slug is pretty well locked it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Was thinking exactly the same thing when I saw your post. Also, will someone take the time and explain what exactly a "full capture" is. The very simple version is when a closed h5 low sucks the 850 low into it's grip and doesn't let go. That's why many of the runs have a stall for like 12 hours. They join forces as rapid intensification takes place. 6z gfs closed h5 off much later than other runs and the low was able to scoot away to the NE. It was still a big hit but nothing like what we saw with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Finally on shore. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 #5, 7, and 11 would put me in a place I may never come back from...but good god man. What a run. gefsomg.JPG Agreed. My only real concern at this point would be what those members are showing. Suppression. Any idea how strong the hp's are on thise 3 members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Agreed. My only real concern at this point would be what those members are showing. Suppression. Any idea how strong the hp's are on thise 3 members? About the same in the 1029-30 range. I ran the loops. I'm not worried about what they are showing. 2 of them take the low across the deep south and off the SC coast. Basically no latitude gain. That aint happening. One was just squashed enough but followed the general op ideas. Until we actually see an op move substantially in that direction there is absolutely no fears based on a couple outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Finally on shore. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 WOOFIE SAURUS REX 15" ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Damn, the majority of those are painfully close to a decent hit for SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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