clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hadn't looked at CIPS analogs til now. Some biggies on there. 1/96 being near the top at #3. Yeah. 03 is on there too. Some quality analogs on there for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The WxBell link earlier showed the 12z run but it wasn't populating. Now it's back to showing 00z. It did the same thing last night but never updated. It may actually be better if it doesn't...lol One thing about high resolution out in time is (imo) extreme or anomalous situations can cause some additional error growth. Par may be scoring high with h5 verification but with my limited experience observing the para it seems more jumpy post d4 than the current op. Same thing applied when the now op gfs was in eval mode. SV has been wonky for 3 days now with both Para and Para EPS.....It does have Para EPS from last night, and doesn't support the OP at all...1.25"+ for DC metro...but yeah...upper level verification scores don't mean a whole lot when dealing with a discrete situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah. 03 is on there too. Some quality analogs on there for sure. Fortunately we have a lot of miller A's during El nino to work off of that scored big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I agree with this. I think it was President's Day last year that underperformed for some of you guys further north due to lower ratios than expected? I always assume around 10:1 and nothing better unless I'm told otherwise. Not to get too off-topic here, but yeah, the ratios around DC and north weren't exactly great for that PD storm. It was very cold, but also as I remember it, kind of dry in the dendritic growth region around these parts. I still got 4" of pixie-dust from that all the same, but yeah, and under-performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Appreciate your input as always! You guys up there should get smoked pretty good too, correct? I admit I haven't exactly concentrated much beyond the mid-Atlantic region, but several of the snowfall plots I saw had a pasting all the way up the coast. At any rate, yes, hope we all get pummeled and bury the needle on the NESIS scale! We will get sloppy seconds, as the fastest rate of maturation and associated closing of the H5 mid level center will take place near your latitude, thus the most intense dynamics will be experienced there. This system epitomizes my rationale for going heavy in your region this winter when I did my outlook. I am pumped for you guys.....this is your show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 SV has been wonky for 3 days now with both Para and Para EPS.....It does have Para EPS from last night, and doesn't support the OP at all...1.25"+ for DC metro...but yeah...upper level verification scores don't mean a whole lot when dealing with a discrete situation I wasn't putting much confidence in the Euro-Para given the agreement across the other models but given this news, this just confirms that logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Agreed. It still seems as if we are using the same arguments (regarding discounting the ECMWF para) that we used in our forum last year regarding the new GFS (which depicted the bust that verified). It leaves a funny taste in my mouth. It still was a huge bust for all of SE PA and most of NJ It's Monday night, and we're talking about a Friday storm. You're talking about a Euro bust in the short-term. We're not even anywhere near the same time-range to be having this comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CIPS Analogs. #3 =0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 18Z op GFS is impressive. SLP bombs to 983 mb off NJ. This seems to be a cooler solution and th GFS keeps 850 mb freezing line *east* of the cities. YUM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NCEP Operational Status Message Tue Jan 19 01:54:46 2016 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 190154 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0152Z TUE JAN 19 2016 THE 00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON-TIME... 00Z RAOB RECAP.. 70414/SYA - N/A FOR THE NAM 76458/MZT - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS.. 76654/MZL - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS.. 76692/HYY - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS.. SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 18Z op GFS is impressive. SLP bombs to 983 mb off NJ. This seems to be a cooler solution and th GFS keeps 850 mb freezing line *east* of the cities. YUM. Do you mean the 18Z GFS para? I thought there were some concerns with the temps for a short time in the ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Absolutely not. It's one of the only reasons I'm not more confident about this storm. It's a HUGE red flag. supressed is a risk of course, but I wouldn't make too much out of it. A few ensemble members show an ots solution but a few also cut inland so it's an equal chance either way. Same with the cips analogs. A few were south. A few inland and most great storms. Of course up here I fear south more and south of dc probably fears a inside track but honestly the vast majority of guidance suggests your in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 that's not quite true. The data feed to that site is completely unreliable, so the maps may not always come in. But the model is running every cycle, and when the maps are available for us to see, they can't be completely ignored. This is the next version of the ECWMF model; it has been thoroughly tested and approved for implementation in 7 weeks. It's not someone randomly tweaking parts of the model. It's scoring well. If you want to make the argument that this run from last night had basically zero support in today's deterministic and ensemble guidance (wish we could have seen the 12z ECMWF parallel), that is a better point to make. There is a caveat posted about it on SV....it is not to be trusted, and is not operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 that's not quite true. The data feed to that site is completely unreliable, so the maps may not always come in. But the model is running every cycle, and when the maps are available for us to see, they can't be completely ignored. This is the next version of the ECWMF model; it has been thoroughly tested and approved for implementation in 7 weeks. It's not someone randomly tweaking parts of the model. It's scoring well. If you want to make the argument that this run from last night had basically zero support in today's deterministic and ensemble guidance (wish we could have seen the 12z ECMWF parallel), that is a better point to make. Its ensembles don't support the OP...1.25"+ mean for DC (per Matt above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Welcome to 4 hours ago. The EURO is warmer. The upper air impulses of interest are coming into our soundings grid just now. As always, the two best models don't match up and the differences paint the goalposts. There should be better consensus with the 12Z models in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Do you mean the 18Z GFS para? I thought there were some concerns with the temps for a short time in the ops. Whichever is found at this link: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Why are you telling us things from 4 and 8 hours ago? I took me that amount of time to think it through. Someone is going to get thunder snow and someone else will have a dry spot screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The EURO is warmer. The upper air impulses of interest are coming into our soundings grid just now. As always, the two best models don't match up and the differences paint the goalposts. There should be better consensus with the 12Z models in the AM. Both are all snow for the region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Full moon this weekend has to be a concern for coastal flooding in OC with Saturday mornings 7:38 AM high tide. The storm should really be starting to bomb at that time just of the Carolina or Delmarva coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0z Nam at 84 has primary low in central TN. Heavy precip incoming to southwest VA with a nice cad signature notated down into the NC mountains. Yes I know it's 84 hr nam but it's good to see the cad holding nicely with the high parked up in northern NY. That's a perfect spot for cold air to drain down the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0z Nam at 84 has primary low in central TN. Heavy precip incoming to southwest VA with a nice cad signature notated down into the NC mountains. Yes I know it's 84 hr nam but it's good to see the cad holding nicely with the high parked up in northern NY. That's a perfect spot for cold air to drain down the appsI was just going to post that it's very, very close to 18z GFS run at 90 hrs.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Gfs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_090_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160118+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0z Nam at 84 has primary low in central TN. Heavy precip incoming to southwest VA with a nice cad signature notated down into the NC mountains. Yes I know it's 84 hr nam but it's good to see the cad holding nicely with the high parked up in northern NY. That's a perfect spot for cold air to drain down the apps Even more encouraging is a fairly similar H5 setup to other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I was just going to post that it's very, very close to 18z GFS run at 90 hrs. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Gfs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_090_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160118+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model You can see the nams superiority in sniffing out cad. That's what I'm looking for in this setup. That dual low makes me nervous if the primary goes any further north, however seeing the cad setup should squelch those fears as it shouldn't force it's way too much into the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 In another few runs we can start to get nam'd. Also puts in perspective how far out we still are that its not even in range of the meso scale models yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Even more encouraging is a fairly similar H5 setup to other models The agreement over different models has been pretty amazing actually for this far out...for many model runs too. It gives more confidence than usual this far out...but obviously there is still time for things to go wrong and change. But this isn't the typical mishmash of "The Euro looks good, but the GFS is a scraper and GGEM is out to sea while the UKMET takes it through Detroit and the ensemble mean is pretty close to where we want it"....you'd probably be pretty happy with that scenario at 4 days out, but this is pretty phenomenal how close the solutions are, so that is a good thing for confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The agreement over different models has been pretty amazing actually for this far out...for many model runs too. It gives more confidence than usual this far out...but obviously there is still time for things to go wrong and change. But this isn't the typical mishmash of "The Euro looks good, but the GFS is a scraper and GGEM is out to sea while the UKMET takes it through Detroit and the ensemble mean is pretty close to where we want it"....you'd probably be pretty happy with that scenario at 4 days out, but this is pretty phenomenal how close the solutions are, so that is a good thing for confidence. I've been thinking that too. Do you attribute that to an easier setup to pick up on here, improvements in guidance, or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I've been thinking that too. Do you attribute that to an easier setup to pick up on here, improvements in guidance, or both? It has to be due to an easier setup for guidance to identify...we certainly haven't improved that much across all guidance that quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Why would a full moon affect the tide? It still has the same mass. http://earthsky.org/earth/tides-and-the-pull-of-the-moon-and-sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So is this worth flying in Friday evening for a 2 night chasecation? If this holds through Wednesday, then I say go for it ETA: Thursday evening, not Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It has to be due to an easier setup for guidance to identify...we certainly haven't improved that much across all guidance that quickly. The amazing consistency at this range reminds me a lot of Feb 2010, in the lead up to the first blizzard. It seems like a strong block along with a Miller A-ish storm is generally easier for guidance to pick up on than a lot of other setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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