WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Paul Kocin wrote up an outlook for this. Calls it "textbook" and used analogs of Jan 96, feb 10, and pd2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not sure how the depth is done. Really, should be looking at precip instead of any of the derived snow products anyway. USA_APCPIPER_sfc_120.gif My understanding is that the depth is handled by the land surface model which accounts for soil temps, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FYI (I don't have time right now to read through the thread), but Para Euro and Para Euro ENS were big hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link? Paul Kocin wrote up an outlook for this. Calls it "textbook" and used analogs of Jan 96, feb 10, and pd2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Gem has 3 different lows in 6 hours lolhttp://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/12z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f99.pngLooks nothing like other models lol then warms everyone Saturday afternoon.http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/12z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f102.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link?Don't have it on my phone. It's the wpc disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 wtf Looks warm for the cities. Though with that heavy precip, would probably still be wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGHLIGHTS... LETS CUT TO THE CHASE. THE MAIN EVENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/DAYS 3 TO 5. THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES. COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DOES INDICATE SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SMALL IN THE LARGE SCALE BUT CRUCIAL TO THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...BECOMES MORE VERTICAL AND THEN CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE STORM WILL LIKELY SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OR ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS BOTH SCENARIOS. IN EITHER EVEN...THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS IMPORTANT TO AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TREND TO FOLLOW AS THE MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS START COMING IN. IN ADDITION...ANY TRENDS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH WILL IMPACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS WELL AS THE ISSUES OF MIXING/CHANGEOVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS WITH THIS FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WHEN THE MORNING MODELS ARRIVE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN LARGE CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT CYCLE. IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. IN PARTICULAR THE 06Z GFS TRENDED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER SNOWFALL DURATION. THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. AS A RESULT...LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE NAEFS MEAN IS FASTER THAN THE GFS MEAN DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW BETWEEN THE ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE AND THE SOUTHERN MIX/CHANGEOVER IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TO RUN FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY 2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK. IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTO DAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE... THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE BUT THAT ALSO SUGGEST THAT SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO IMPACT. THERE IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM THE EVENT AND MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO COME. THERE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY RELATIVE TO AVERAGE AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE FORECASTS PRIOR TO 5-6 FEBRUARY 2003...WHICH WAS FORECAST AS MUCH AS 8 DAYS IN ADVANCE. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS PREDICTABLE. THIS MAY BE ONE CASE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY BUT WE SHALL SEE. KOCIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Paul Kocin wrote up an outlook for this. Calls it "textbook" and used analogs of Jan 96, feb 10, and pd2. Unreal. That says a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Kocin: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALLDISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMSIN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THEJANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLYTIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJORSNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here's the CWG post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/19/forecasts-converging-on-serious-friday-saturday-snowstorm/ This was my favorite part of the article: Scenario 3: Moderate snowstorm. Unlikely. 10 percent chance. "... Snowfall would probably be modest, more on the order of 6 or 8 inches...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Insane. Wow, the consensus for 20+ is astonishing for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not that it matters, but I figured I'd note with the UL evolution of the GGEM, if it were to not have that double low structure at the surface, would probably have dropped those 40" totals right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Kocin: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY 2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK. Saved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEM is putting 3" QPF in DC immediate area...wow! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016011912/gem_apcpn_neus_21.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loshjott Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Kocin: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY 2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK. Does he mean January 2016 is likely to be more widespread/heavy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This one storm will likely bring many areas to above their average seasonal snowfall for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Does he mean January 2016 is likely to be more widespread/heavy? No, he means this storm is not likely to be a NESIS 5, like Jan '96 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GGEM SLP at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 UK is nothing like the GEM as usual Looks fantastic 993 Would be shooting off or near obx More GFS like No tripple low BS http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z UKIE at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Can we qualify some statements that are often made here. The inner banks of NC are not the outer banks. The low above featured on the UKMET is clearly inside the OBX near Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Does he mean January 2016 is likely to be more widespread/heavy? probably similar to the others. jan 96, if you just look at the radar, it was legendary. that would be tough to top. gonna be an interesting next couple of days to say the least. while we're in between runs...here's the '96 loop: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=1996&month=1&day=6&hour=0&minute=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Can we qualify some statements that are often made here. The inner banks of NC are not the outer banks. The low above featured on the UKMET is clearly inside the OBX near Wilmington. There is no 108 panel so we can't really tell... 120 FWIW -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GGEM SLP at 102 capturetime1.gif That looks farther NW and sitting IN the Chesapeake rather than off of it. Too close for comfort, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS mean is amazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 no sig changes on gefs. 500mb locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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