Scraff Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 There are basically 2 parts to the storm if it gets captured. A front side thump from warm air advection precip while the low is SW of us. The cold conveyor/deform as the low passes our latitude to the east of us would be much larger, more intense, and slower to move if the low is captured. With that being said, even a progressive solution would be a very significant storm. It's going to have a ton of moisture going along for the ride. Thank you Bob. Appreciate the info. I get it. Just wish it would screw with Boston a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 A progressive storm would still be pretty good you greedy gooses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 A progressive storm would still be pretty good you greedy gooses. who wants a triple when you can get the Grand Slam. We are at the point of no return. a 10-15 inch storm would be highly dissapointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 A progressive storm would still be pretty good you greedy gooses. Not everyone can jackpot. So this comment doesn't get deleted, para out to 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'd argue the 0z and 6z GFS aren't all that different -- just some small differences in 5H orientation around the capture I agree. The main difference I saw was h5 doesn't close off until overhead and isn't as robust when it does (single contour) so everything is a little quicker on the way out. It's most likely just a typical noise wobble. We'll see some every day and all freak out over nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Would a good analog of a more progressive storm with a lot of moisture but not a full capture be the February 12-13, 2014 storm? I believe we got an inch or two in DC with the CCB on the back end. Feb 14 was disjointed. Surface low was long gone and occluding north of us while the ULL was down in SW VA. This setup is much more in step with the surface/midlevels/upper levels. It's a 2 part storm but there is no intermission. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 who wants a triple when you can get the Grand Slam. We are at the point of no return. a 10-15 inch storm would be highly dissapointing Something tells me if you get 14 inches you won't be crying. Even in the best most robust events someone gets "screwed". So the climo sites all record 24+ but someone's house for variable reasons including subsidence shadows gets 13. Good luck...hoping for a widespread 30 for all of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 who wants a triple when you can get the Grand Slam. We are at the point of no return. a 10-15 inch storm would be highly dissapointing God model > American contraption Get some sleep my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm on a ski vacation in Colorado and I have been on this forum several hours per day studying, reading and posting. Don't you dare call me a troll. Careful analysis requires you fine comb through the data without emotion. I have been a met for 16 years...no longer at LWX. I now brief the agency director at headquarters. i think the gfs was the first to catch this storm, so it's probably not a good idea to discard a run, though also probably not a good idea to get too invested in one run either. we'll see what the 12z's have. also, colorado is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Am I seeing this right? 6Z Para has a double closed h5 contour, but overall a little less amplification at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 06z GFS para looks ok. 1.5" qpf for DC through 12z Sat. Surface low is basically stalled while the 500 catches up, but at 12z the bulk of the precip is in southern PA. edit - just refreshed. Still end up around 2" QPF near DC, more to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS 06z Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The precip maxes have been jumping around on the variousweather models and DC has been averaging 1.8-2.5 " QPF. Pretty impressive no matter how you slice it 06z GFS para looks ok. 1.5" qpf for DC through 12z Sat. Surface low is basically stalled while the 500 catches up, but at 12z the bulk of the precip is in southern PA. edit - just refreshed. Still end up around 2" QPF near DC, more to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 06z GFS Para is amazing... starts snowing around hr 80 and doesn't end until hr 120. Temps are close but they look better than the OP - we never mix. I don't have snow maps but looks like it would be more than the 06z GFS but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Jason and I are tag teaming an article. We're going bullish for this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 06z GFS Para is amazing... starts snowing around hr 80 and doesn't end until hr 120. Temps are close but they look better than the OP - we never mix. I don't have snow maps but looks like it would be more than the 06z GFS but not sure. The consistency between the two is promising to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Jason and I are tag teaming an article. We're going bullish for this early. When is it coming out?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Jason and I are tag teaming an article. We're going bullish for this early. Mention the radio show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS no noticeable changes by hr 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Can you provide a link when you're through writing it? Wes (usedtobe) has been creating threads each time his article gets posted. Look for a new thread today with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 There are basically 2 parts to the storm if it gets captured. A front side thump from warm air advection precip while the low is SW of us. The cold conveyor/deform as the low passes our latitude to the east of us would be much larger, more intense, and slower to move if the low is captured. With that being said, even a progressive solution would be a very significant storm. It's going to have a ton of moisture going along for the ride. it's funny...most storms i remember either had one or the other. great thump or we get our rates once the ULL or coastal forms. in the real big ones we do well with both, even if we get mix-y, dry slot-y in the middle for a period. so i guess where that deform band forms is going to be the key difference with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I like what I'm seeing from the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GFS at hr 72 has the SLP at 1004mb and is in N AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 by hr 66 you can see the backside of the trough a little sharper. Vort has dug deeper and is going neutral a little faster. No doubt another big run coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12Z GFS looks colder and south to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I like what I'm seeing from the GFS.. Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Def colder, juicier and south thru 72... this is gonna be a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I like what I'm seeing from the GFS.. [/quot Good has a little Euro feel to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Kinking at 78... transfer imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like shortly after onset of precip, we get the intense snowfall rates Edit: Some people do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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