snowfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's not a "trend". It's one run. I know you know this, but just sayin. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes. Was just looking for clarification from ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't like the trend of the 06z GFS. Hope it's a blip on the screen I think you're trolling everyone at this point. You've said stuff like this about other runs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 He's LWX not a troll. They are just being very cautious about freakign everyone out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's not a "trend". It's one run. I know you know this, but just sayin. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk A one model, one run trend. That has to be a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't like the trend of the 06z GFS. Hope it's a blip on the screen I am curious what concerns you? It is still 12-20 inches for everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z NAM looks really juicy although starts later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12Z NAM has 1002mb SLP in NE TN at 81... transfer ongoing at 84 with secondary SLP developing over ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 while it is the NAM... it closes the low about 9-hours before the GFS does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmorelights Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Coming onshore now: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/WCIR.JPG Should resolve sampling concerns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 while it is the NAM... it closes the low about 9-hours before the GFS does Indeed it does, and h5 low is right behind the SLP.... I like the NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 while it is the NAM... it closes the low about 9-hours before the GFS does I'm like Bob. These models are so close, it's hard to see any real difference at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12Z NAM has 1002mb SLP in NE TN at 81... transfer ongoing at 84 with secondary SLP developing over ILM and a big slug of precip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm like Bob. These models are so close, it's hard to see any real difference at this point. NAM is more amp'd than GFS, thats for sure. But its the NAM, at 84hrs. Regardless, it supports the idea of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 In case there was any concern about the moisture plume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Coming onshore now: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/WCIR.JPG Should resolve sampling concerns... The whole "sampling" thing is overblown. Plenty of accurate data is available from satellites/ships/planes. I can't remember the last time that guidance had a wholesale change once a shortwave is over land. It's usually a last resort type of hope when things look bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM is more amp'd than GFS, thats for sure. But its the NAM, at 84hrs. Regardless, it supports the idea of a storm. you know one of the NAM runs will probably give you 52 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The whole "sampling" thing is overblown. Plenty of accurate data is available from satellites/ships/planes. I can't remember the last time that guidance had a wholesale change once a shortwave is over land. It's usually a last resort type of hope when things look bleak. 12/26/10. Famously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The NAM 500 map at 84 is a thing of beauty: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016011912&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The whole "sampling" thing is overblown. Plenty of accurate data is available from satellites/ships/planes. I can't remember the last time that guidance had a wholesale change once a shortwave is over land. It's usually a last resort type of hope when things look bleak. The whole "sampling" thing is overblown. Plenty of accurate data is available from satellites/ships/planes. I can't remember the last time that guidance had a wholesale change once a shortwave is over land. It's usually a last resort type of hope when things look bleak. Thats a fair point, but IMO small sample areas play a big role when you live on the NW gradient....hence why some may have interest in finer details as we approach T-72 hrs. Love your reads btw...great stuff. Just an observation. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yes. Was just looking for clarification from ers. Classic setup needs a capture. Not sure if it picked up on the timing of the pacific energy or something else being off. Hope it's just a blip on the screen. Going from a captured slow moving system to a more progressive one is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The whole "sampling" thing is overblown. Plenty of accurate data is available from satellites/ships/planes. I can't remember the last time that guidance had a wholesale change once a shortwave is over land. It's usually a last resort type of hope when things look bleak. LOL..yes...i have never seen us go from flurries to 9 inches as soon as the piece of energy hit oregon:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think you're trolling everyone at this point. You've said stuff like this about other runs too. I'm on a ski vacation in Colorado and I have been on this forum several hours per day studying, reading and posting. Don't you dare call me a troll. Careful analysis requires you fine comb through the data without emotion. I have been a met for 16 years...no longer at LWX. I now brief the agency director at headquarters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The NAM 500 map at 84 is a thing of beauty: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016011912&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084 Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Classic setup needs a capture. Not sure if it picked up on the timing of the pacific energy or something else being off. Hope it's just a blip on the screen. Going from a captured slow moving system to a more progressive one is not good Though I believe it's a blip, lets say for giggles it remains progressive. Still means a very healthy storm for our area just with lesser amounts? Is it just that the low would slide further out to sea than up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm on a ski vacation in Colorado and I have been on this forum several hours per day studying, reading and posting. Don't you dare call me a troll. Careful analysis requires you fine comb through the data without emotion. I have been a met for 16 years...no longer at LWX. I now brief the agency director at headquarters. Enjoy your vacation and ignore him. I have the same questions as Scraff if you can be so kind as to answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Though I believe it's a blip, lets say for giggles it remains progressive. Still means a very healthy storm for our area just with lesser amounts? Is it just that the low would slide further out to sea than up the coast? There are basically 2 parts to the storm if it gets captured. A front side thump from warm air advection precip while the low is SW of us. The cold conveyor/deform as the low passes our latitude to the east of us would be much larger, more intense, and slower to move if the low is captured. With that being said, even a progressive solution would be a very significant storm. It's going to have a ton of moisture going along for the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 LWX has "Snow may be heavy at times" in their ZPF's Friday night already... nice ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC932 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016DCZ001-VAZ054-191800-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA932 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016.REST OF TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH..TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH..WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDYWITH SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THEAFTERNOON..WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT..THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO10 MPH..THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S..FRIDAY...SNOW OR RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT..FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THEUPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT..SATURDAY...RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY. BRISK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT..SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.LOWS IN THE MID 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 There are basically 2 parts to the storm if it gets captured. A front side thump from warm air advection precip while the low is SW of us. The cold conveyor/deform as the low passes our latitude to the east of us would be much larger, more intense, and slower to move if the low is captured. With that being said, even a progressive solution would be a very significant storm. It's going to have a ton of moisture going along for the ride. Would a good analog of a more progressive storm with a lot of moisture but not a full capture be the February 12-13, 2014 storm? I believe we got an inch or two in DC with the CCB on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ok who's got a bed for an old man? Kidding since I need to be here through Friday which would make it too late. VA/MD looks to have one of the all timers but we have to see how 12Z trends. We've been discussing in our forum and. 96 has been the best analog? Will also mentioned '83 in terms of how it could play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 There are basically 2 parts to the storm if it gets captured. A front side thump from warm air advection precip while the low is SW of us. The cold conveyor/deform as the low passes our latitude to the east of us would be much larger, more intense, and slower to move if the low is captured. With that being said, even a progressive solution would be a very significant storm. It's going to have a ton of moisture going along for the ride. I'd argue the 0z and 6z GFS aren't all that different -- just some small differences in 5H orientation around the capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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