yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Start time looks to be Friday morning... GFS has around 9" snow on ground by 00z SAT in parts of N VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I wonder if NOAA will send a special mission into the Pacific disturbance today to get some data. I know they did it in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No h5 capture means mecs not hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larryweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 does anyone know the timing of when this all begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No h5 capture means mecs not hecs It's a blip and wobble I think...either way, it's still 20" for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 does anyone know the timing of when this all begins From what I'm seeing, Friday AM South of I-66 and Friday afternoon north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No h5 capture means mecs not hecs20-25" isn't a HECS? Now I know you're nuts. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 20-25" isn't a HECS? Now I know you're nuts. Lolthe stakes are raised...anything less than 20 will be a dissapointment for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I wonder if NOAA will send a special mission into the Pacific disturbance today to get some data. I know they did it in the past. They shouldn't since WSR is no longer an official program. There is a summary article on targeted observations for this type of event and fits with the narrative that I have been trying to portray regarding the discussion of "sampling of features", see here: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00309.1 From the abstract: "Forecast impacts were generally neutral and thus smaller than reported in previous studies, most from over a decade ago, perhaps because of the improved forecast and assimilation system and the somewhat denser observation network." These types of observations have much less of an impact as they did 10-15 years ago due to significant advancements in the modeling, data assimilation, and global observing network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS mean is good, about 2" QPF for DCA and surrounding area...the snow total is about 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z Para GFS destroys us, great temps - 0z Para GFS is a little warmer but basically the same track and look. The mixing line gets to us briefly (looks like a 50 mile difference from 18z which never threatened the DC area) but overall, another big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Last nights 0z para looks on par with the regular gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good thing I didn't stay up for the Euro; there would have been no sleeping after seeing that.. I don't recall ever seeing instances where the Euro showed such extreme solutions, even moreso than the other models. I sure hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Maybe already been discussed but wunderground EURO has a 12 hour period of 20-30 mph winds for DC, with some higher gusts that would be near blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 impressive runs overnight. Cobb for Westminster 00z GFS: 1/22 15z to 1/24 09z: 3.35 qpf 06z GFS: 1/22 15z to 1/24 00z: 2.31 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 LWX dis from 6am .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL BEIN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE DETERMINISTICGFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT PLACING THE SFC LOW JUST NORTH OFTHE CAPE...HOWEVER THE EURO IS ABOUT 6 HRS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...ASIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS PROGGED TO REACH THE MID- ATLANTICWITH SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELGUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN VICINITY OF I-95 ANDEAST. THIS WOULD CAUSE LOWER SNOWFALL RATIOS AND THEREFORE LESSERAMTS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A RAIN-SNOW LINE AS WELL. THESE DETAILSWILL TAKE TIME TO IRON OUT AS WE ARE STILL 4 DAYS AWAY. CONFIDENCEIS HIGHER FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUERIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FORECASTS FOR UPDATES THIS WEEK ABOUT THISWINTER STORM.SUNDAY AND MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THEDEPARTING LOW SUNDAY. SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AWEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BUT THERE WILL BELITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 LWX pretty confident, **** is going down this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 WPC thoughts on where the low will be Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 LWX pretty confident, **** is going down this weekend. Well. Thats the first time for this new product. Another one to save for this storm folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 LWX pretty confident, **** is going down this weekend. I find these to be worthless... What happens if the northern half east of the Blueridge get a foot and the southern half gets nothing. They cannot split this map up. It just show, hey watch out with no substance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I find these to be worthless... What happens if the northern half east of the Blueridge get a foot and the southern half gets nothing. They cannot split this map up. It just show, hey watch out with no substance. um... its just a threat level map? it's not meant to have any other information on it other than "we are confident there is a threat coming" so...not sure what you were expecting from it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 um... its just a threat level map? it's not meant to have any other information on it other than "we are confident there is a threat coming" so...not sure what you were expecting from it? Threat of what... it does not say. LWX could just put a banner on the home page does more... or do what other regions do, and just post an image on the home page. Should not have to go hunt and peck for a vague map. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Threat of what... it does not say. LWX could just put a banner on the home page does more... or do what other regions do, and just post an image on the home page. Should not have to go hunt and peck for a vague map. Just my opinion. for starters, i clipped the image from their site, so the header is off. But, if you really must know, since it really seems to be grinding your gears Here is the entire WINTER STORM THREAT page for you to nitpick over. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter#wsoutlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 To follow-up, I get annoyed when people lambaste NWS/LWX for trying to find ways to impart more information. In this case, often, people want to know how confident forecasters are in a looming system and what potential impacts might be. It appears this a product where they are trying to find a way to quantify that a bit. I would imagine this would be especially helpful to state, county, and local officials and those who plow, work in essential services jobs, hospitals, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hearing the 0Z Para Euro looks like the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Folks, this back and forth about LWX stuff is old and derails disco way too often. If you don't like their products then don't look at them. Posting them is on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I find these to be worthless... What happens if the northern half east of the Blueridge get a foot and the southern half gets nothing. They cannot split this map up. It just show, hey watch out with no substance. These are 4-7 day outlooks. Similar to SPC outlooks. They are not intended to be specific. Details are relayed within day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Folks, this back and forth about LWX stuff is old and derails disco way too often. If you don't like their products then don't look at them. Posting them is on topic. thanks, bob. just trying to post relevant images for the hundreds of guests viewing this thread looking for information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hearing the 0Z Para Euro looks like the EPS. Para is mostly lock step with the op. A little different with qpf maxes. EZF is in a 30" bubble and nw va is detroyed just like the op. Baltimore and NE is under 20" but it's surely noise vs anything meaningfully different. Long duration event for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.