Mercurial Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just wow. Pretty awesome, in the truest sense of that word. Although not in the M/A, seeing this unfold is pretty interesting just from a scientific perspective; how early on the models locked onto this, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What are winds like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What are winds like? From looking, whiteout to Blizzard where its snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 more than that.... Some of these snow rates could easily exceed 3" per hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It is just amazing that there are no model outliers. The model range seems to be between low-end HECS and top 3 all time HECS. And this is nearly 80 hours out. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 THAT IS NOT CORRECT It's all paid maps, it is not allowed to be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Details for those north of DC.....Over 2" qpf gets about 20 miles into pa. 2.5 qpf makes it to the pa border west of about Baltimore. There is a very tight northern gradient but not until you get to near the pa turnpike. Sharp cutoff north of there. It's a great run everyone in here though including us northern md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 AGAIN this is from EURO WX not weatherbell DT, mods said no Euro paid maps at all. Not just WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like there is a 52 incher in there in West Maryland Northern WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 50-60mph gusts from the cities and SE. The rest of us must endure mundane 30-50mph gusts that redistribute our 2-3' of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 that snow map looks like a copy of jan 1996 in many ways Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 My all time storm record is 36 inches with pd2. This would obliterate that. I have never seen anything like it on the euro before. Its just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 THAT IS NOT CORRECTAccording to your buddy Randy aka the boss it is verboten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Some of these snow rates could easily exceed 3" per hour As a child, I remember rates in that range during portions of PD 1 in 1979. It was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Anyone have info on wind gusts from Feb 2010? I imagine progged amounts plus winds would result in insane drifting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Over 2" qpf gets about 20 miles into pa. 2.5 qpf makes it to the pa border west of about Baltimore. There is a very tight northern gradient but not until you get to near the pa turnpike. Sharp cutoff north of there. It's a great run everyone in here though including us northern md Thanks, sir. Looks like one for the books. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 All that being said let's be careful here. The snow amounts on the European model are extreme. It is quite likely that the northern end of the Shenandoah Valley is NOT going to see 45 inches of snow. It is extremely unlikely that Roanoke is going to see 38 inches of snow or Charlottesville 33 inches of snow even though that is what this particular 0z euro model is depicting. There is a very strong case to be made that the European model is overdoing the extreme precipitation amounts but it is possible that the snow amounts could approach 3 feet in some portions of the Shenandoah Valley into the WVA eastern panhandle into central MD . I I am not at this time forecasting these sorts of extreme snowfall amounts but the fact that this sort of extreme snowfall is rare does not mean that it cannot occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's the winds too that are impressive. This won't be a gentle heavy snowfall. It will be more like a snow globe in a blender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS mean snow is about 17" for DCA-BWI, 18-21" for the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 00z EPS is insane.. 18-20" mean areawide with 24" jackpot near Luray VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1232 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016HIGHLIGHTS...THE PRIMARY IMPACTS THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AMAJOR WINTER STORM INCLUDING HEAVY SNOWS FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOREXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON DC TO NEW YORK AND BOSTON FRIDAY INTOSUNDAY WITH THE LOW'S ANTICIPATED TRACK AND SWATH OF HIGH LIQUIDEQUIVALENTS SUPPORTING 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-95.COASTAL FLOODING AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MARINE INTERESTSFROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST ARE ALSO LIKELY.IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTODAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSSTHE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERALINCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED.MODEL CHOICES AND CONFIDENCE...THE GROWING AMPLITUDE AND WAVELENGTH OF THE PATTERN IS ACCOMPANIEDBY MUCH LESS SPREAD OF ALL MEMBERS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES...WHICHSUPPORTS GREATER USE AND RELIANCE UPON THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONSFOR ABOUT 1 OR 2 DAYS LONGER THAN APPLIED RECENTLY. THIS ALLOWSFOR MORE AMPLITUDE OF THE ANTICIPATED HIGHLIGHTS TO BE MAINTAINEDLONGER. ALTHOUGH A STRAIGHT MODEL BLEND OF ABOUT 50/50 18Z GFS/12ZECMWF WAS USED TO BEGIN DAY 3...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO40/40/10/10 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLEMEANS FOR DAY 4...WITH ABOUT 1/4 OF EACH MODEL FOR DAYS 5-7...THELOW ENTERING THE TN VALLEY ON DAY 3 IS PLAGUED BY CONCERNS WITHTHE 12Z ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER AND ULTIMATELY MORE SOUTHWARDCROSSING THE APPALACHIANS COMPARED WITH MOST OTHERSOLUTIONS...WHICH HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PRECIPITATIONALONG THE EAST COAST DAYS 4/5. TRACING THE LOW TO ITS PRESENTLOCATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWS THE ECMWF TO BE A BIT SLOWINITIALLY WHICH MAY HAVE TO DO WITH ITS OLDER INITIALIZATION ANDGREATER RELIANCE UPON PRIOR FIRST GUESS FIELDS VERSUS THE GFSWHICH IS MORE RECENT AND OFTEN MORE SENSITIVE TO SUBTLE SHIFTS INOBSERVATIONS. THUS...THE SYSTEM IN THE EAST IS NUDGED MOSTLYTOWARD THE 18Z GFS WITH SOME INCORPORATION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANSAND A LITTLE ECMWF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SPREAD. THE MORE EVENLYDISTRIBUTED MODEL BLEND SERVES WELL FOR THE REST OF THE CONUS ASTHE SYSTEMS ARE SLIGHTLY SMALLER WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCESBEST ADDRESSED WITH THE BLENDING OF NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS. THEPREFERENCE FOR THE LARGE TROUGH NEARING THE WEST COAST AROUND DAY7 IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH ABOUT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE GIVING THEGROWING SPREAD...WITH ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLES USED BYTHIS TIME.JAMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z NAM at 84 has 1000mb SLP in north-central TN with small closed 540 DM h5 low right behind it... SLP also is kinking to SE so transfer is either ongoing or starting up...snowing in C VA at 84 as well to near DCA on composite radar on IWM... semblance of CAD is evident as well on the SLP map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FWIW 03z SREF at 87 hrs SLP map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 06z GFS SLP placement: 75 -- 1004mb in N AL/S TN 78 -- 1004mb in E TN 81 -- 1004mb in E TN (isobars kinking to SE) 84 -- 1002mb in E TN (isobars kinking to SE) 87 -- transfer ongoing 90 -- broad 1000mb SLP over E NC 93 -- 996mb SLP just NE of HSE 96 -- 992mb SLP E of ORF by about 100 miles or so 99 -- 990mb SLP or so SE of SBY No h5 capture this run... but I would def lean toward EURO/EPS runs over GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 06z GFS Jackpots Northeastern MD around BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 DCA to PHL I-95 jackpot on snow maps through 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This run was colder..probably due to the track. As Yoda said, no h5 capture so that may impact the QPF totals..but it's a solid 20-24 inches for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Per quick glance at soundings... DCA should be all snow.... temps probably in upper 20s for most of event approaching 30 at times (hrs 93/96) before temps crash back into the 20s... either way, soundings are snow at DCA for entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 DCA to PHL I-95 jackpot on snow maps through 114 06zGFSSnowap1-19-16.gif Interesting, WxBell map look different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Kumar Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Interesting, WxBell map look different. The ones he posted are low res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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