North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I am out to 96 and it doesn't look like the OP to my untrained eye. Someone tell me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 8:00 PM, AlaskaETC said: Gathering intelligence from the AccuWeather forums, some of the mets have it. Nevermind.. I see it on the Bell. Does look south thru 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:57 PM, AlaskaETC said: 12z EPS is south..... Maybe very marginally compared to 00z run, but doesn't look south like OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nice turn at 96.. centered over Duck, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The ensembles are a northern VA mauling through 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Definitely north of the op at least with precipitation. Some really big hits in the mix for the DC-area, along with some that agree with the RIC jackpot and sharp northern cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like only 3 members (out of 50) that would make us want to bridge jump in DC. A handful more look a bit like op. Rest are quality or big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS 6" mean via Maue: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CWG is doing a live Q and A on Facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Eps has maxes right through the heart of the Commonwealth with what appears to be up to a foot to the Mason Dixon line. D.C. increased snowfall with the slight southern shift and northern areas do seem to drop off a little. Bulls-eye appears to be Central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 8:07 PM, eurojosh said: EPS 6" mean via Maue: Mean cut in half from yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS looks solid still for the Baltimore/DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 8:08 PM, Wonderdog said: Mean cut in half from yesterday? No, that's a percent likelihood map, not a storm totals mean map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS Control is pretty impressive. 30+ for most of Northern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 were the ensembles south of the OP previously? i thought they were, at least the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'd say 35 or so are still huge hits PA border south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 8:09 PM, UIWWildthing said: EPS looks solid still for the Baltimore/DC area. as in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 8:12 PM, mitchnick said: as in? Precip between 1.4-1.6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:39 PM, FairfaxVAsnowlover said: The euro based off of Eurowx still gives immediate DC area 18-24 inches with more south...It really isn't that bad until you get north of I70 On WxBell, output is: BWI QPF: 1.6" DCA QPF: 2.0" IAD QPF: 1.8" This is with 2m temps in the mid-20s and 850's at or below 0C throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'd be much more worried of the euro had shifted things north of mason Dixon... We can work with a mid virginia precip jackpot since we won't mix and ratios will be in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/689540752116875264 Interesting comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 8:14 PM, caviman2201 said: On WxBell, output is: BWI QPF: 1.6" DCA QPF: 2.0" IAD QPF: 1.8" This is with 2m temps in the mid-20s and 850's at or below 0C throughout. That seems like a pretty big cut. Weren't last nights 2.5 for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 8:12 PM, mitchnick said: as in? Actually might be a couple inches less than 0Z last night. Still decent for D.C. 15-18 instead of 17-20? eta:Those shades are difficult to see for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 8:14 PM, caviman2201 said: On WxBell, output is: BWI QPF: 1.6" DCA QPF: 2.0" IAD QPF: 1.8" This is with 2m temps in the mid-20s and 850's at or below 0C throughout. Nice and cold. Do we know where the storm exits the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 8:15 PM, 84 Hour NAM said: That seems like a pretty big cut. Weren't last nights 2.5 for DC? It had 18-21" of snow verbatim for the DC area, so no..not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 can I make a suggestion to people who try to generalize models and ensembles? when you say north, east, etc., please give us some perspective like Ian did generalized statements using your back yard as a reference don't really help with a storm as large as this Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We know RIC isn't getting 24 inches. This will come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 8:08 PM, BTRWx said: Eps has maxes right through the heart of the Commonwealth with what appears to be up to a foot to the Mason Dixon line. D.C. increased snowfall with the slight southern shift and northern areas do seem to drop off a little. Bulls-eye appears to be Central VA. eyeballing looks like 1"+ QPF up to M/D line and as far west as Garrett county...definitely more breathing room than on the OP..also the winchester guys get smoked...or at least south of there a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If it hasn't been said yet, let me. We'll make it up on the ratios. Carry on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 for those who are curious 12z GFS Cobb output for Westminster 1/22 18z to 1/24 06z: 1.88 QPF, all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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