nj2va Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18-19" DCA snow mean on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:22 AM, nj2va said: 18-19" DCA snow mean on the GEFS. I assume that is the highest so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:22 AM, nj2va said: 18-19" DCA snow mean on the GEFS. I approve. Can't wait to see what the euro has in store. Thank you for posting. It is interesting to see how many ensemble members have DC in the light blue/purple! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:23 AM, 84 Hour NAM said: I assume that is the highest so far Definitely. It just keeps getting more locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro op should begin soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0Z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:26 AM, ers-wxman1 said: Euro op should begin soon 19 minutes give or take 30 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:22 AM, Bob Chill said: It's a 30 hour storm that goes through massive transformation right over our heads... The obs thread will have numerous "thunder!!!!!!" reports 1983 got discussed a lot this year and the timing is off but the basic pattern is there. Thats heaviest thundersnow for me ever and 3"ph rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 With the modeled winds and extreme snowfall, especially around 105 hours out, some places would hypothetically reach PDS Blizzard Warnings seen during the bust last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:28 AM, Tenman Johnson said: 1983 got discussed a lot this year and the timing is off but the basic pattern is there. Thats heaviest thundersnow for me ever and 3"ph rates. Me too. Incredible rates sustained for a 6-8 hour period. This upcoming event is modeled to be over 30 hours, 1983 was about 16 hours if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 YES IT IS and no massive dry slot r On 1/19/2016 at 5:04 AM, WestminsterDeathband said: GEFS Mean colder and southeast....2.5"+ for DC/Alex/PG, and 2"+ for all of DC and Balt metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:29 AM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: With the modeled winds and extreme snowfall, especially around 105 hours out, some places would hypothetically reach PDS Blizzard Warnings seen during the bust last year What is a PDS blizzard warning? Don't believe there is a such thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 18z Par GFS is running now FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:33 AM, andyhb said: What is a PDS blizzard warning? Don't believe there is a such thing. particularly dangerous situation blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:22 AM, Bob Chill said: It's a 30 hour storm that goes through massive transformation right over our heads... The obs thread will have numerous "thunder!!!!!!" reports Jan 1987 snowstorm, I think it may have been Jan 22, thundersnow dumped 6 inches in ten minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:33 AM, andyhb said: What is a PDS blizzard warning? Don't believe there is a such thing. Pretty much the NWS using enhanced wording, extremely dangerous and life threatening is usually what they say. A couple products during the bust last year said "particularly dangerous storm' and the actual Particularly Dangerous Situation tag has been used on winter products out in Normans CWA during blizzards before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Does anyone remember what the GEFS showed for its mean snowfall at this point before Feb 6, 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:32 AM, canderson said: Popping in from Harrisburg, can anyone give me an idea on what winds are modeled to be like up this way? I can't read those well. Thanks! Verbatim off the 00z GFS, sustained in the 30s at times, with higher gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:36 AM, midatlanticweather said: particularly dangerous situation blizzard Yes I know what it stands for. On 1/19/2016 at 5:37 AM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Pretty much the NWS using enhanced wording, extremely dangerous and life threatening is usually what they say. A couple products during the bust last year said "particularly dangerous storm' and the actual Particularly Dangerous Situation tag has been used on winter products out in Normans CWA during blizzards before That's not an official product though. Don't think there's any need for something beyond a blizzard warning in terms of official products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z para is pretty bad. Slp crosses south VA with plenty of rain after the thump. NW outlier for now but a nasty run nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:37 AM, Snowman. said: One of the most beautiful ensemble clusters you will ever see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:41 AM, WxWatcher007 said: Say again? Is this real? No. That doesn't even happen in the Cascades or Sierras. It's pretty early to be talking thundersnow, but the type of deepening that the ULL goes makes it a prime suspect...find where the best mid-level frontogenesis overlaps -EPV and you have a great spot for very intense banding and thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:42 AM, Bob Chill said: 18z para is pretty bad. Slp crosses south VA with plenty of rain after the thump. NW outlier for now but a nasty run nonetheless More amped than the regular operational model? Sounds like it takes the rain/mixing issue to another level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 By tomorrow night's run, the ensemble mean will exceed the operational. Then what? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:41 AM, WxWatcher007 said: Say again? Is this real? It was likely highly localized. During a thundersnow in January 1987, I measured 6 inches of fluffy snow in ten minutes. Then the rates fell off to just very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Bob NCEP is only out to 93 hours, you looking @ old data or do you look @ the para from a different source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:48 AM, Highzenberg said: Bob NCEP is only out to 93 hours, you looking @ old data or do you look @ the para from a different source? I was wondering that as well. Looks pretty good @93h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 5:51 AM, C.A.P.E. said: I was wondering that as well. Looks pretty good @93h Agreed, it is colder than the 12z too...I do recall yesterday's 18z GFS para was wrapped up so I think Bob was analyzing yesterday's run by accident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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