DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:25 AM, caviman2201 said: Clown map based on the "Kuchera" method. Great map, their numbers are off for some reason. Should be 25+ over Baltimore with color scale same down into VA where that 11.2 is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 hope that GFS trend is wrong for you dc folks if this trend keeps going you wont see 30-40" on next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:27 AM, DTWXRISK said: hope that GFS trend is wrong for you dc folks if this trend keeps going you wont see 30-40" on next run It's colder than the 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:26 AM, UVVmet84 said: Great map, their numbers are off for some reason. Should be 25+ over Baltimore with color scale same down into VA where that 11.2 is located. Yea the map looks right... the numbers looked whack to me. 15 for BWI when the color scale indicates 20+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 3:59 AM, Amped said: Closed H5 in KY this run about 100 miles further north. So you think maybe the front end snow then sorta light snow/drizzle for couple hours then coastal gets it going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 so the 0z op GFS for Saturday morning Jan 23 in central and eastern va will be SUNNY? [ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Crazy QPF numbers. Euro was crazy as well but max was S/W of the GFS. I dont know if I have ever seen the globals spit out these kind of QPF numbers before: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:26 AM, WestminsterDeathband said: GGEM over 2.5" for DCA - BWI all snow gfs is the warmest model....you do a compromise with the other models and its an all snow event. This has a chance to beat the 1899 amount for DCA which i think was 20 and #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:31 AM, Tenman Johnson said: So you think maybe the front end snow then sorta light snow/drizzle for couple hours then coastal gets it going? Possibly, it made up for it later in the run when the low elongated and pulled the precip back to the southwest. Good run verbatim, but less room for error. Edit: Yeah coastal formed further south this run after the primary went further north. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:26 AM, WxMan1 said: Even still, the clown map from the GFS is an awful lot from DCA-BWI and points east. That's the good news with a more amped up system...yes the likelihood of some mixing if not changeover, maybe a risk of dry slottage for a short period, but a better def band to follow. Wasn't Feb 5-6 2010 similar in that regard? I actually was not here for the 2010 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:34 AM, clskinsfan said: Crazy QPF numbers. Euro was crazy as well but max was S/W of the GFS. I dont know if I have ever seen the globals spit out these kind of QPF numbers before: Feb 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:34 AM, clskinsfan said: Crazy QPF numbers. Euro was crazy as well but max was S/W of the GFS. I dont know if I have ever seen the globals spit out these kind of QPF numbers before: Really think the outrageous QPF has to do with the elevated water temps off the SE coast and GOM. All the more enabled by the projected fetch of moisture, which will eventually draw from the Eastern Pacific off of Western coast of Central America. This is going to be one heck of a moisture plume once it gets cranking after the ULL transfers (and before the transfer too). Just MHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 00Z GGEM start time around 6am Friday DC and about 2am CHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Oddly the NAM at 84 hrs which is typically useless at that range has a potent surface low very close to the global solutions. Barring a shift in guidance based on better model handling of the pacific energy...I don't see this heading out to sea or any large track shifts. I do expect to see minor shifts in the mix line and duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FOLKS if you BUY the 0Z OP gfs and you accept the r/s line getting into DC BWI then WHY are folks using 15 to 1 snow ratio whene the ratio is far more likely to be 7 to 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 00z UKMET 1001 over the SC coast then a 995 just off the VA portion of the Delmarva. 12z had a similar placement but it was sub 990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:36 AM, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Feb 2010 No. The NAM was pumping out 3.5. Never saw it from the GFS, EURO or GEM. There are over 4 inch qpf numbers on that map. Its absolutely nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:49 AM, clskinsfan said: No. The NAM was pumping out 3.5. Never saw it from the GFS, EURO or GEM. There are over 4 inch qpf numbers on that map. Its absolutely nuts. The models were locked in for days... the NAM and GFS where pumping out over 3 each run. 20-30 inches were common on the snow maps and verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:47 AM, DTWXRISK said: FOLKS if you BUY the 0Z OP gfs and you accept the r/s line getting into DC BWI then WHY are folks using 15 to 1 snow ratio whene the ratio is far more likely to be 7 to 1? Who is using a 15:1? Think most people are going 10:1 given every model shows >2.5" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:47 AM, DTWXRISK said: FOLKS if you BUY the 0Z OP gfs and you accept the r/s line getting into DC BWI then WHY are folks using 15 to 1 snow ratio whene the ratio is far more likely to be 7 to 1? 10:1 is the standard on the maps. I don't think 15:1 is being posted anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:47 AM, DTWXRISK said: FOLKS if you BUY the 0Z OP gfs and you accept the r/s line getting into DC BWI then WHY are folks using 15 to 1 snow ratio whene the ratio is far more likely to be 7 to 1? Won't the ratio be 7-1 (or less if sleet) only for a short period of time, with average (10:1) ratios at start and above average ratios for the final 12-18 hours with high rates at times..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:50 AM, AlaskaETC said: Because it only lasts three hours... DT has a point. The only chance at even close to 15-1 is when under the deform band. For the entire event you would be best served to assume 10-1 at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 folks are posting 15 to 1 snow ratio maps On 1/19/2016 at 4:51 AM, 84 Hour NAM said: Who is using a 15:1? Think most people are going 10:1 given every model shows >2.5" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:52 AM, hazwoper said: DT has a point. The only chance at even close to 15-1 is when under the deform band. For the entire event you would be best served to assume 10-1 at this point All the maps on IWM/TT/etc use 10:1 ratios or Kuchera... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Only three 12"+ snowstorms have over 2" liquid in DC. Two are the top two snowstorms. 1922, 1899. Of course Snowmageddon should be in that list too if you believe all the surrounding obs and remember DCA is the worst. Mar 1958 dropped 3.75" but it was mostly rain.. in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:52 AM, DTWXRISK said: folks are posting 15 to 1 snow ratio maps Which map DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Surprised the 00z GFS got the mix line into DC - just looking at the LOW, it was a little SE of the 18z run (not by much tho but an improvement). SO thought the temps might be a bit better but they weren't. But as others have said, it is a SNOW-SLEET-SNOW mix, which I will take. Temps we can debate on Wednesday/Thursday/Friday... but love the continued large snow amounts. Hope it continues. 3 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GGEM is a crushjob.. and no mixing for the cities either. (Note: This map is 10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 4:52 AM, DTWXRISK said: folks are posting 15 to 1 snow ratio maps i dont think anyone here has done so lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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