January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter

[stormtracker]

Again, let's keep banter to a very bare minimum.  DO NOT POST EURO PAYWALLED MAPS.

[clskinsfan]

Wow. Even though they are about worthless at this timeframe. I have to post this:

 

MRB:

160122/1500Z 93 10005KT 25.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 11:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0
160122/1800Z 96 09006KT 26.7F SNOW 17:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.200 16:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160122/2100Z 99 08008KT 25.8F SNOW 9:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.174 13:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 102 06010KT 24.9F SNOW 7:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.232 11:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0
160123/0300Z 105 04007KT 25.8F SNOW 12:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.279 11:1| 10.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.95 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 108 05015KT 26.5F SNOW 7:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.231 10:1| 12.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.18 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0900Z 111 02008KT 27.2F SNOW 7:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.206 10:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.39 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 114 36007KT 28.8F SNOW 8:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.211 10:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.60 100| 0| 0
160123/1500Z 117 36012KT 30.3F SNOW 27:1| 4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.179 11:1| 20.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.78 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 120 35014KT 30.6F SNOW 29:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159 13:1| 24.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.94 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/2100Z 123 34013KT 28.5F SNOW 15:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.233 13:1| 28.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.17 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 126 34012KT 27.6F SNOW 16:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 13:1| 30.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.29 100| 0| 0
160124/0300Z 129 32010KT 25.1F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 13:1| 30.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.34 100| 0| 0
160124/0600Z 132 32010KT 23.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 13:1| 30.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.35 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/0900Z 135 32011KT 24.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 13:1| 30.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.35 100| 0| 0

 

Iad: 19.8  DCA: 16.3   BWI: 13.4

[WxUSAF]

Took a peak at 18z GFS soundings for S&G's.  Definitely suboptimal for dendrite growth in the Friday daytime/evening snow.  So, pump the breaks on dreams of 15:1 ratios all day long.  Better chance for that sort of fluff in the deform band Saturday afternoon.

[ORH_wxman]

I really like where we sit. Big snow with blizzard conditions possible? Craziness. I think the euro probably has the best handle so far, and a blend of the euro and GFS may be best at this point. It is going to be a wild ride these next few days. 

 

The variable I like most about where N VA/MD/S PA sit is they are under the CCB and ML frontogenesis during a time when the storm undergoes its most rapid deepening. That is where you want to be to get the most intense snowfall rates. Rain/snow lines aside, that is a very good thing.

[Ian]

Took a peak at 18z GFS soundings for S&G's. Definitely suboptimal for dendrite growth in the Friday daytime/evening snow. So, pump the breaks on dreams of 15:1 ratios all day long. Better chance for that sort of fluff in the deform band Saturday afternoon.

None of DC's top storms have managed 15:1 so I bet this won't. 11:1 a good guess in general for here.

[yoda]

From LWX... updated an hour ago:

 

[NorthArlington101]

From LWX... updated an hour ago:

 

canvas.png

In addition to that I guess they like the possibility of the deform band lurking over the area afterwards. 

 

[dallen7908]

I'm confused about the update.  Earlier today (or was it yesterday) I remember that east of the Mountains was in the right-central box (moderate confidence for a high impact event).  Now we are in the center-top box (high confidence for a moderate impact event).  Am I misremembering or misinterpreting?  It seems like we should still be right-central. 

[airmarci]

Devil is going to be in the details with this one. With Miller-B's you really want that energy transfer and redevelopment to occur just south of OBX to minimize p-type issues. Northeasterly versus easterly near-surface flow makes a big difference for the mixed layer.

[yoda]

87 hr SREFs has 1012mb SLP placement in AL and that's all I am using the SREFs for

[Deck Pic]

Is it correct that last night's Para Euro was wide right?

[ravensrule]

Is it correct that last night's Para Euro was wide right?

Yup, it showed 2" for DC.

[MacintoshPro]

Did anyone get a hold of the 12z Euro Parallel? I'm a nb and don't know where to find it. 

 

Its not updating on weatherbell.

[Deck Pic]

Did anyone get a hold of the 12z Euro Parallel? I'm a nb and don't know where to find it. 

 

Data release has been very inconsistent...Wxbell and Vista don't have it yet...It's kind of become a situation where you cross your fingers and hope it even shows up...

[olafminesaw]

I'm confused about the update.  Earlier today (or was it yesterday) I remember that east of the Mountains was in the right-central box (moderate confidence for a high impact event).  Now we are in the center-top box (high confidence for a moderate impact event).  Am I misremembering or misinterpreting?  It seems like we should still be right-central. 

I think it depends on what they want to communicate. It is both true that there is a very high likelihood of at least a moderate impact snowstorm and at the same time is moderately likely that a severe impact storm will occur (at least that's their thinking). LWX had to choose one or the other.

[nj2va]

Data release has been very inconsistent...Wxbell and Vista don't have it yet...It's kind of become a situation where you cross your fingers and hope it even shows up...

 

The WxBell link earlier showed the 12z run but it wasn't populating.  Now it's back to showing 00z.  It did the same thing last night but never updated.  

[Bob Chill]

Data release has been very inconsistent...Wxbell and Vista don't have it yet...It's kind of become a situation where you cross your fingers and hope it even shows up...

It may actually be better if it doesn't...lol

One thing about high resolution out in time is (imo) extreme or anomalous situations can cause some additional error growth. Par may be scoring high with h5 verification but with my limited experience observing the para it seems more jumpy post d4 than the current op. Same thing applied when the now op gfs was in eval mode.

[mitchnick]

87 hr SREFs has 1012mb SLP placement in AL and that's all I am using the SREFs for

Loop the 6-hour precip map...very nice.

[ravensrule]

I don't agree. First, it's old. Second, it's an outlier.

True but the new version of the best model in the world totally crapping on us has to give you pause.

[snowfan]

Hadn't looked at CIPS analogs til now. Some biggies on there. 1/96 being near the top at #3.

[Joshfsu123]

True but the new version of the best model in the world totally crapping on us has to give you pause.

 

Not when the 12z Euro OP, and its ensembles, came back with another major hit. and the entire GFS/UKMET and other model suite at 12z and 18z stayed the course with the same idea. Doesn't mean it can't change but right now, not a lot of support anywhere for that last Euro Para run.

[winterymix]

I like the EURO animation at www.wunderground.com,

there is an animated snowfall depiction buried in the menus.

Good snows are west of the cities by 25 to 35 miles

for the 12Z run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

True but the new version of the best model in the world totally crapping on us has to give you pause.

There is a caveat posted about it on SV....it is not to be trusted, and is not operational.

[mitchnick]

True but the new version of the best model in the world totally crapping on us has to give you pause.

I thought you were being sarcastic. Lol. I think that if we had any legit chance of a total whiff, it would be on at least one other operational. Remember, as DT has said for years, "No other model support? Don't believe it"

[AlaskaETC]

Ins't that exactly what happened during last year's big January Whiff (affected PHL and NYC) 

We are dealing with a different beast...that was a clipper that exploded off shore into a Manitoba Mauler, this is a more traditional Miller A system that has 500mb evolution that the models seem to be locking down on.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Ratios are one of the big fairy tales some use around here to pump up snow totals. I always assume "standard" ratios this far out and then adjust once we're closer and have better data.

I agree with this. I think it was President's Day last year that underperformed for some of you guys further north due to lower ratios than expected? I always assume around 10:1 and nothing better unless I'm told otherwise.

[zenmsav6810]

We are dealing with a different beast...that was a clipper that exploded off shore into a Manitoba Mauler, this is a more traditional Miller A system that has 500mb evolution that the models seem to be locking down on.

Agreed. It still seems as if we are using the same arguments (regarding discounting the ECMWF para) that we used in our forum last year regarding the new GFS (which depicted the bust that verified). It leaves a funny taste in my mouth.

 

Nyc didn't totally whiff on that one tho.  They got 6-12 right?

It still was a huge bust for all of SE PA and most of NJ

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree with this. I think it was President's Day last year that underperformed for some of you guys further north due to lower ratios than expected? I always assume around 10:1 and nothing better unless I'm told otherwise.

Ratios will be high if you get into one of those cranked up meso bands within the deform area.....they are all about intense lift centered exquisitely in the snow growth region, so they are usually advertised to be more widespread than what actually transpires.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

That was a miller b...totally different animal.

This event should smoke you guys and kill the NESIS scale.

 

I can't wait for the obs down here.

 

Appreciate your input as always!

 

You guys up there should get smoked pretty good too, correct?  I admit I haven't exactly concentrated much beyond the mid-Atlantic region, but several of the snowfall plots I saw had a pasting all the way up the coast.  At any rate, yes, hope we all get pummeled and bury the needle on the NESIS scale!

[mitchnick]

Ins't that exactly what happened during last year's big January Whiff (affected PHL and NYC)

I wasn't following anything up there so I can't say if it is similar.