wxman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Exactly. I'm sorry, but if anyone thinks the models will key in on the extreme dynamic nature of the front dumb and subsequent CCB/Defo band, then you should probably take a break until the hi-res models are in range. And even then a bit of a crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is why I mentioned a dry slot on Saturday, and those back end wrap arounds are highly unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I guess it depends on where you live. I'd rather have it stronger and more tucked in because the heavier snows would be further inland.The Canadian looks like it's further north and tucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Verbatim the Twin Forks might be tricky for a time because the GFS gets them into the upper 30s to near 40 Saturday evening, but that might be during a time where it's not precipitating much anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Jesus, you can see the CMC trying to point out deformation bands all the way out in PA with subsidence in between Incredible to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I guess it depends on where you live. I'd rather have it stronger and more tucked in because the heavier snows would be further inland. For you this run is at least as good if not better. If it cut back anywhere it's eastern/ne PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like the CMC is really tucked in. Gives PA a lot of snow and NYC around 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is why I mentioned a dry slot on Saturday, and those back end wrap arounds are highly unreliable. Its not wrap-around. That's the precip shield blowing up once the jet axis shifts. Look at some 700mb RH charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Canadian looks like it's further north and tucked in. It has a very odd solution with developing a second low further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 1.75"+ contour shifted from just SW of NYC to Philly. Probably about a 75 mile shift. A- you're backtracking and B- you said "not even close" when, at worse, its like 0.1-0.2 lower. Come on, now. Don't be a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Its not wrap-around. That's the precip shield blowing up once the jet axis shifts. Look at some 700mb RH charts. Yeah you're right. I take that back. You can see it shift to right overhead. Would be some insane rates for a few hours if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Jesus, you can see the CMC trying to point out deformation bands all the way out in PA with subsidence in between Incredible to watch You're not at all worried about a shafting zone as the axis shifts? Seems that there are two maxes, one in PA somewhere and the other somewhere closer to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You're not at all worried about a shafting zone as the axis shifts? Seems that there are two maxes, one in PA somewhere and the other somewhere closer to NYC. No. Ideally, there will be an initial thump, and then the coastal takes over which will cause the entire precip shield to blossom. With that happening, you'll have probably one or two deformation bands shifting within the coma head. Of course the areas that are outside these zones will see subsidence and less snow, but these are details that I would not stress until Thursday. Only thing I'm focusing on is the general H5 track for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You're not at all worried about a shafting zone as the axis shifts? Seems that there are two maxes, one in PA somewhere and the other somewhere closer to NYC. Can`t be worried with those looks at 500 mbs . In the areas where there is some sinking air for a time you are probably looking at 1.5 ( a fail ? ) and the areas with the greatest convection one could approach 2.5 inches . Sign me up for the fail and you take the CCB and I will not complain . ( as modeled tonight ) . Keep in mind this AM the greatest amounts were down in the M/A now they are up over PA . They will move around all the way through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If it makes you feel better, earthlight is on the same page Strongly agree. I cannot believe the evolution being depicted on models, specifically the GFS, which mirror some of the great snowstorms in weather lore. Unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Details like deformation banding and shaft zones are impossible to nail down at this range. Heck, it's tough to nail them down until the storm is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GGEM dumps mod/hvy snow in the HV for hours and hours lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Can`t be worried with those looks at 500 mbs . In the areas where there is some sinking air for a time you are probably looking at 1.5 ( a fail ? ) and the areas with the greatest convection one could approach 2.5 inches . Sign me up for the fail and you take the CCB and I will not complain . ( as modeled tonight ) . Keep in mind this AM the greatest amounts were down in the M/A now they are up over PA . They will move around all the way through Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good amount of precip our way. Majority of it snow this could end up being a big snows for long island,look at that pocket out east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Some select QPF amounts (18z GFS vs. 0z GFS) are below. The big change appears that amounts are more uniform on the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Verbatim the Twin Forks might be tricky for a time because the GFS gets them into the upper 30s to near 40 Saturday evening, but that might be during a time where it's not precipitating much anyway. I wouldn't trust that completely, I've seen it many many times not get above freezing for storms that show it getting warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 this could end up being a big snows for long island,look at that pocket out east! Some of that out by the Twin Forks is rain/mix, especially late Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.