forkyfork Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 post all model images and descriptions of new runs here. general discussion about the storm goes in the discussion thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 One snow predicting output shows why caution on wild total snow amounts is warranted: 18Z Cobb Snow Algorithm reduced snow amounts mostly due to surface temps. being above 32 at times Sat. PM. Now predicts 12" total (LGA) down from the all snow runs of 17" , 18" just previous. Ratio is an overall 12:1 and total liquid equivalent dropped a little to 1.36" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 One snow predicting output shows why caution on wild total snow amounts is warranted: 18Z Cobb Snow Algorithm reduced snow amounts mostly due to surface temps. being above 32 at times Sat. PM. Now predicts 12" total (LGA) down from the all snow runs of 17" , 18" just previous. Ratio is an overall 12:1 and total liquid equivalent dropped a little to 1.36" Model noise you should post how other stations increased using the Cobb algorithm at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 One snow predicting output shows why caution on wild total snow amounts is warranted: 18Z Cobb Snow Algorithm reduced snow amounts mostly due to surface temps. being above 32 at times Sat. PM. Now predicts 12" total (LGA) down from the all snow runs of 17" , 18" just previous. Ratio is an overall 12:1 and total liquid equivalent dropped a little to 1.36" If LE is 1.36", and ratios overall are 12:1.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If LE is 1.36", and ratios overall are 12:1....Yeah, do the math. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 One snow predicting output shows why caution on wild total snow amounts is warranted: 18Z Cobb Snow Algorithm reduced snow amounts mostly due to surface temps. being above 32 at times Sat. PM. Now predicts 12" total (LGA) down from the all snow runs of 17" , 18" just previous. Ratio is an overall 12:1 and total liquid equivalent dropped a little to 1.36" Oh well. Storm canceled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If people are gonna post images here, try to save and upload vs. hotlink so we can monitor the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 post all model images and descriptions of new runs here. general discussion about the storm goes in the discussion thread This will suck during pbp when sometimes posters will post an image and text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If LE is 1.36", and ratios overall are 12:1....16.32" of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 16.32" of snowfall. Right, but 0.36" is wasted as plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Right, but 0.36" is wasted as plain rain.So then 12" of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Right, but 0.36" is wasted as plain rain. There is no rain at LGA . Stop . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 it's too early for rain/snow line talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 There is no rain at LGA . Stop . Don't even entertain you're better then that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS out to hour 60. The ridging is stronger out West and the responsible energy is digging further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This run is significantly less amplified than 18z through 00z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This run is significantly less amplified than 18z through 00z Friday. I don't know about that. That shape of the trough is less compact, so you may have a wider turn on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't know about that. That shape of the trough is less compact, so you may have a wider turn on this run. It closes off at H5 much further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Closed low much further north on this run, should be great for the NYC metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Closed low much further north on this run, should be great for the NYC metro areaabout 100 miles north of 18z correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The strength of the ULL is the same. 540DM, Just that everything is a bit further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That's a huge jump, like potential taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Is this further north bump based on better sampling of the players? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 300mb jet is insane, ton of lift within that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 All the real heavy stuff stays offshore this run. It's already occluding by 15z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That's a huge jump, like potential taint Yeah, but only after a dumptruck of front end precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This isn't even going to be close to 18z in terms of LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You're still looking at 12"+ for most of the area. It's a solid run but not quite on par with 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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