weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not the best trends. ugh, storm wants to go just south doesn't it? That's what I'm seeing on early morning reports, though we are expected to get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Its not about the storm going south but a gradual decline in dynamics. The 06z gfs is dampening things, the storm isn't as potent as it was a couple days ago. If these trends continue with other models for the 12z suite then there's plenty to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Its not about the storm going south but a gradual decline in dynamics. The 06z gfs is dampening things, the storm isn't as potent as it was a couple days ago. If these trends continue with other models for the 12z suite then there's plenty to worry about. Interesting, so we might just be looking at a regular snowfall, which would be fine. These computer models are driving everyone crazy these days. So really anything is still in play I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Question: Why does it seem that, as we approach show time, the three main models now seem to be diverging in how they evolve the storm? It seemed to me they were in better agreement earlier on. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Always seems to happen as energy comes onshore and sampling gets better. No cause for alarm imo. By 12Z wednesday we should be getting a really solid general consensus with more convergence on a solution rather than divergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Its not about the storm going south but a gradual decline in dynamics. The 06z gfs is dampening things, the storm isn't as potent as it was a couple days ago. If these trends continue with other models for the 12z suite then there's plenty to worry about. By the way when these things don't go well for us, and let's face it they often don't, I put myself in the shoes of all the people who dread these events and say well, at least someone, OK mostly everyone beside people like us, is happy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Always seems to happen as energy comes onshore and sampling gets better. No cause for alarm imo. By 12Z wednesday we should be getting a really solid general consensus with more convergence on a solution rather than divergence. Don't know Ralph, I gassed up the snow blowers and they started right up, that's the kiss of death right there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's looking likely that we at least get a 6-10" storm out of this but I feel we're going to see models back away on the much bigger amounts for the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Its not about the storm going south but a gradual decline in dynamics. The 06z gfs is dampening things, the storm isn't as potent as it was a couple days ago. If these trends continue with other models for the 12z suite then there's plenty to worry about. Well said. Did anyone seriously expect this to keep getting more intense and stronger over the next 3-4 days? Models and real-weather can only get so extreme. Starting to get more realistic looking now. And 10"+ is nothing to raise your nose to. Like Ive been saying since this showed up, temper your expectations and you will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's looking likely that we at least get a 6-10" storm out of this but I feel we're going to see models back away on the much bigger amounts for the next couple days. I think you may be right, I mean those big storms are rare, we shouldn't be seeing them often, a well timed 6-10 as we found in 2014 can be just what the doctor ordered; and I mean that; studies show snow actually lifts peoples spirits in winter. We hear much complaining about SAD but there are many people ( a minority to be sure ) who enjoy a good snow. enthusiasm goes down when you start getting over a foot though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Well said. Did anyone seriously expect this to keep getting more intense and stronger over the next 3-4 days? Models and real-weather can only get so extreme. Starting to get more realistic looking now. And 10"+ is nothing to raise your nose to. Like Ive been saying since this showed up, temper your expectations and you will be fine. And a week ago we were begging for a couple inches...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 And a week ago we were begging for a couple inches...right?Exactly. We should take whatever we can get. And who's to say those extreme solutions wont resurface in the next few days? Its very possible. In not writing off a big ticket event. I just think some folks that were expecting 2-3'+ etched in stone need to put their expectations in-check. Expect less, celebrate a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Exactly. We should take whatever we can get. And who's to say those extreme solutions wont resurface in the next few days? Its very possible. In not writing off a big ticket event. I just think some folks that were expecting 2-3'+ etched in stone need to put their expectations in-check. Expect less, celebrate a bonus. Ya know I don't remember 2006 blizzard being modeled to be so great, and it underperformed in a lot of areas; areas just a few miles from me, in bike riding territory, got 28 where I got about 18. It was a big storm for NYC in an otherwise lame winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Well ok boys and girls I gotta go to work and I can't post during work, not that anyone here values my input much ( but that's ok, it's just nice to be around other weenies, even if I am not in the same class of weenie as world champs like Anthony....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I also wouldn't concider one 06z GFS run a trend, the euro has ALWAYS been suppressed and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Are weenies really complaining because it might be only 10 inches or god forbid 6 inches...wtf is wrong with people. Live through the 80s and 90s and you will see how rare 18 inch dumps are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Are weenies really complaining because it might be only 10 inches or god forbid 6 inches...wtf is wrong with people. Live through the 80s and 90s and you will see how rare 18 inch dumps are Who's complaining? Can you quote someone? I've only seen people discussing the extremely sharp cutoff associated with the euro and 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lot of bad info in the banter thread. Weatherpuf btw you would receive verbatim on the oz euro 14" and 14-17" on the 6z gfs. I know it's banter but come on some read flags for 75 miles north of nyc or the places that are never favored with a Miller a typically. Bad analysis in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Verbatim 6z gfs is 1.5-2 inches of liquid equivalent for nyc and all surrounding nj areas adjacent to the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Let's take a blend of Euro and GFS. Moderate snow fall for most ..let's not discuss totals wayyyy to soon .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Let's take a blend of Euro and GFS. Moderate snow fall for most ..let's not discuss totals wayyyy to soon .. Again I don't know how 12" or 17" is moderate snowfall based on the latest runs of the gfs and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Again I don't know how 12" or 17" is moderate snowfall based on the latest runs of the gfs and euro Well I know it would not be moderate, if we get that much. By the way its weatherpruf, not puf...assuming that's a typo. And so you know I do not do analysis, ever. I may make commentary, but my primary interest is in weather as a social phenomenon, and these types of storms, or rumors of them, are great laboratories for that kind of observation. Truth be told though, 12 is not really that big a deal on the weekend. Would have to hit mid morning on a weekday, then it would be rough...but in the 80's we were hard pressed to see even that much. And of course, no hard feelings against you. Always pay attention to your posts as you are local. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Well I know it would not be moderate, if we get that much. By the way its weatherpruf, not puf...assuming that's a typo. And so you know I do not do analysis, ever. I may make commentary, but my primary interest is in weather as a social phenomenon, and these types of storms, or rumors of them, are great laboratories for that kind of observation. Truth be told though, 12 is not really that big a deal on the weekend. Would have to hit mid morning on a weekday, then it would be rough...but in the 80's we were hard pressed to see even that much. And of course, no hard feelings against you. Always pay attention to your posts as you are local. Def a typo lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChineseFood4Snow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The storm thread title reads as if there might be a discussion about coastal storms on January 22 and 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS has a combined snowfall total of 50 inches from this weekend storm and next weeks storm. Not the best trends. It's only 1 run. The Para, EPS and GFS gives the city more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 for the people who twist and turn with every model run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Based on the 06z GFS run, will blizzard warnings be issued for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It must be nice to be in the jackpot zone without a care in the world. I want that just once like new England last year and parts of the midatlantic with this storm. I feel like even in NYC centric winters like 2010-11 we have to sweat it out, ie R/S line or sharp cutoffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Based on the 06z GFS run, will blizzard warnings be issued for NYC? Probably not until at least friday morning. Long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Probably not until at least friday morning. Long way to go Watches would go up tomorrow or Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Watches would go up tomorrow or Thursday morningNot warnings thoughSent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.