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Continued Winter Banter.


Ericjcrash

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So much for the warmth being transient...temps overperforming again today and mt holly has bumped me to highs of 45 and 48 for the weekend...that would make 7 days above normal not including the 31th

 

The entire first week of Feb was suppose to be a torch, i don't see anything that is surprising about it 

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The warmth this December was much more impressive from a historical perspective than the January and February

warmth in 1998. December 1997 wasn't that warm at +1.7. The seasonal snow total so far this year is

based off just one day that started melting pretty quickly. There were only 10 below normal temperature days for the winter to

date.

That makes it a great winter in my book. Outside of winters with a parade of snowstorms, this is about as good as it gets: one historic blizzard and otherwise nice temps. Sure as heck beats the minor snow events and bone chilling cold we got last February.

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The entire first week of Feb was suppose to be a torch, i don't see anything that is surprising about it

Because it was talked up transient...the warmt started last Thursday and took a one day hiatus...I saw the 5th being touted here as the start of cold yetvits going to be off by at least 3 days...the warmth was being blamed on the cutter but its more than that..just sayin

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Because it was talked up transient...the warmt started last Thursday and took a one day hiatus...I saw the 5th being touted here as the start of cold yetvits going to be off by at least 3 days...the warmth was being blamed on the cutter but its more than that..just sayin

 

 

It was always a 10 day warm up. Posted from  back on Jan 5.

The front 4 days of FEB were opined to be + 10.

No shock here . 

 

Day 1 of the turn colder 

ecmwf_T850a_us_5.png

 

 

ecmwf_T850_us_5.png

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That makes it a great winter in my book. Outside of winters with a parade of snowstorms, this is about as good as it gets: one historic blizzard and otherwise nice temps. Sure as heck beats the minor snow events and bone chilling cold we got last February.

You  realize of course that it is abnormal and freakish to have such prolonged warmth in the middle of winter right? I'm frankly concerned about all this warmth it is not good news. It is no different than having temps in the 40's in July. I don't like heat and would welcome cool temps for a few days in summer, but would that be a good sign? I start getting all apocalyptic when I see these freakish temps in winter....

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in 1997-98 the coldest it ever got for 30 straight days was 37.3...That is the highest on record...This year was at least 34.4 for 30 days...last year NYC had a 30 day period averaging 23.9...2016 is the 10th warmest...

winter...coldest 30 day period...

1997-98.....37.3

2011-12.....37.0

1948-49.....36.3

1931-32.....35.8

2007-08.....35.7

1952-53.....35.5

2001-02.....35.4

1936-37.....34.9

1990-91.....34.5

2015-16.....34.4

1932-33.....33.9

2005-06.....33.5

1974-75.....33.0

1950-51.....33.0

1982-83.....32.9

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You realize of course that it is abnormal and freakish to have such prolonged warmth in the middle of winter right? I'm frankly concerned about all this warmth it is not good news. It is no different than having temps in the 40's in July. I don't like heat and would welcome cool temps for a few days in summer, but would that be a good sign? I start getting all apocalyptic when I see these freakish temps in winter....

We had one of the coldest, if not the coldest, Februaries ever last year. Boston had record setting snow that was piled into areas so high that it didn't melt until July. These things even out. I am not saying there's no climate change to be worried about; however, the world has a way of pulling the laws of averages into play.

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We had one of the coldest, if not the coldest, Februaries ever last year. Boston had record setting snow that was piled into areas so high that it didn't melt until July. These things even out. I am not saying there's no climate change to be worried about; however, the world has a way of pulling the laws of averages into play.

If we had 1000 years of reliable temp data and never once saw this sort of 10-15 year period of extremes I might be worried but we simply don't have enough historical data to know if this is a blip or something is going on

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Because it was talked up transient...the warmt started last Thursday and took a one day hiatus...I saw the 5th being touted here as the start of cold yetvits going to be off by at least 3 days...the warmth was being blamed on the cutter but its more than that..just sayin

The torch will be over by the 5th. We are not going to be near 60 this weekend.

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If we had 1000 years of reliable temp data and never once saw this sort of 10-15 year period of extremes I might be worried but we simply don't have enough historical data to know if this is a blip or something is going on

That does little to reassure me....now I am NOT an expert but when I see experts pulling ice cores and such, they seem pretty confident that they can reconstruct enough of the past climate to conclude that we are seriously screwed. As one scientist I saw put it, we are way beyond the holy sh*&t moment and we can't really stop it at this point....

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We had one of the coldest, if not the coldest, Februaries ever last year. Boston had record setting snow that was piled into areas so high that it didn't melt until July. These things even out. I am not saying there's no climate change to be worried about; however, the world has a way of pulling the laws of averages into play.

But that's a problem when you have to go from one extreme to the next to balance things out. The balancing process used to be more gradual and tame but now you're seeing arctic cold and record snowfall to a Top 5 warmest November except it's December!

Before that you had Sandy and record blocking episodes or freakish October snows and whatnot. Who knows what spring and summer will bring this year.

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You want a prediction about the weather, you're asking the wrong Phil. I'll give you a winter prediction: It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be grey, and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life.

What would you do if you were stuck in one place and everyday was exactly the same and nothing you did mattered?

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