bluewave Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 February is going to end up above normal and we are going to see a top 5 warmest winter. The departures for the Feb 1-10 period will seal the deal. We are on track for the snowiest top 5 warmest winter in NYC history. No matter what your long range winter forecast was, you will be able to claim some victory. The 97-98 analog crew will be able to claim victory on the warmth, while the colder and snowier forecast group can claim a win with the historic blizzard and 27.2" seasonal snowfall in NYC. So this extreme winter will find a way to throw both groups a bone. 42.7...27.2"....15-16 so far Current top 5 warmest DJF in NYC and snowfall 41.5...3.5"......01-02 40.5...7.4"......11-12 40.1...5.3"......31-32 39.6...5.5"......97-98 39.2...24.9"....90-91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 February is going to end up above normal and we are going to see a top 5 warmest winter. The departures for the Feb 1-10 period will seal the deal. 1- 7 may end + 10 . Then there will be a cold with a potential snow period between or at the back end of day 10 - 15 . Probably as the vortex leaves mid month . Agree and Bluewave is right , if you said AN temps with AN snow , you can claim victory . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 1- 7 may end + 10 . Then there will be a cold with a potential snow period between or at the back end of day 10 - 15 . Probably as the vortex leaves mid month . Agree and Bluewave is right , if you said AN temps with AN snow , you can claim victory . I agree with the idea of a warmer than normal February (I chose a +0.8° anomaly for the monthly AmWx picks) and a snowier than normal month. During the period of renewed strong blocking, the possibility of a significant snowfall will be there assuming the subtropical jet remains active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I agree with the idea of a warmer than normal February (I chose a +0.8° anomaly for the monthly AmWx picks) and a snowier than normal month. During the period of renewed strong blocking, the possibility of a significant snowfall will be there assuming the subtropical jet remains active. No strong blocking in site http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 No strong blocking in site http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml Yawn. Give me a -EPO pattern instead. -NAO have been rare recently for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 1- 7 may end + 10 . Then there will be a cold with a potential snow period between or at the back end of day 10 - 15 . Probably as the vortex leaves mid month . Agree and Bluewave is right , if you said AN temps with AN snow , you can claim victory . Yeah, NYC could possibly see the first 40-30 winter with another snowstorm. A normal or above normal February would lock in a 40 degree winter for NYC. Just one 3-6 event would put NYC over 30" of seasonal snowfall. I suppose the ultimate would be a 12+ event before the winter ends to join the unthinkable 40-40 club. The baseball fans would really like that outcome. http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hi4040c.shtml The Major League benchmark for a truly great offensive season lasted nearly a century and was the attainment of thirty home runs and thirty stolen bases. On September 23, 1988, an all-time plateau was reached by Jose Canseco who set the new benchmark for power & speed at forty home runs and forty stolen bases during the same season. Baseball Almanac is pleased to present the elite membership to baseball's 40-40 Club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 1983 was 34.5 for January and 36.4 for February...the coldest period was the last half of January and the first half of February...There was a torch at the beginning of February...I like that analog now...82-83 had five chances for major storms...One in December tracked to far south...One in January had marginal temperatures so it was a mix...the first one in February changed to a mix...February 11th produced...April storm was to late in the season...This year we had one or two if you count the Sunday before light snow...if we get three more chances for a storm maybe one of them gives us a good snowfall...February 2016 can be ten degrees warmer than February 2015 and still be below average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 1- 7 may end + 10 . Then there will be a cold with a potential snow period between or at the back end of day 10 - 15 . Probably as the vortex leaves mid month . Agree and Bluewave is right , if you said AN temps with AN snow , you can claim victory . Depends on where u are talking about about AN snow . Most areas north and west are below and some extremely below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 No strong blocking in site http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml That's not correct. The EPS also features similar blocking at the above timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 PB GFI has been the best forecaster in this sub forum this winter. He called the El Niño as being not east based. This was a basin-wide El Nino event and that is not remotely in question. Under no circumstances can this El Nino qualify as a modoki. We're looking at the standard decaying El Nino at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 This was a basin-wide El Nino event and that is not remotely in question. Under no circumstances can this El Nino qualify as a modoki. We're looking at the standard decaying El Nino at the moment. Terrible post We argued Basin wide since Aug/Sept PB GFI, on 03 Sept 2015 - 1:44 PM, said: The greatest departures from normal are found in Region 3 and 3.4 . So this is not an east based NINO . R 3 - 3.4 continue to looks strong through the fall . To give one an idea of an east based vs central NINO R 1.2 was at 2.6 3 weeks ago than dropped to 1.7 inside those 3 weeks before ticking back to 2 . I have not seen guidance that spikes the region again . I would define this Nino as basin wide with the strongest forcing by the time we get into the winter to originate out of the central basin and not the eastern regions . During this same time R 4 has also ticked up BASIN WIDE .....................1+2...3...3.4....4 05AUG2015... 2.6 2.3 1.9 0.9 12AUG2015 2.0 2.2 2.0 0.9 19AUG2015 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.1 26AUG2015 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.1 EAST BASED VS 27AUG1997 3.7 2.7 2.0 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 With Jan 16 in the book, let's take a look at final temp departures. KEWR: +1.6 KISP: +2.56 KJFK: +1.82 KLGA: +2.69 KNYC: +1.74 KHPN: +2.66 Still broadly above, but obviously not to the extremes seen in December and definitely not the hard cold that had been advertised by some. As can often be the case in El Nino's, we had a lot of modulation of cold air in the east this month, and were still able to squeeze out an amazing snow storm against a background warmer signal. For those of you who care for this sort of thing, I've calculated national HDD's at 923.25, a solid 29.8 HDD's warmer than the 30 year normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 That's not correct. The EPS also features similar blocking at the above timeframe. I see your point - BUT looking at that AO forecast the average consensus has the AO only reaching about half as low as the previous downturn last month BUT it is also forecast to rebound quickly towards neutral again as we approach the 10 -15 day period which could imply another strong winter event for the area IMO also supporting this is the NAO is forecasted to gradually turn more towards neutral about the same time as is the PNA with the EPO remaining negative . MJO is forecasted to run through 4-5 heading towards a more favorable colder 6 - but then again these are only forecasts as of today - could change and what actually verifies might be different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 This was a basin-wide El Nino event and that is not remotely in question. Under no circumstances can this El Nino qualify as a modoki. We're looking at the standard decaying El Nino at the moment. He didnt say anything about a modiki nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I see your point - BUT looking at that AO forecast the average consensus has the AO only reaching about half as low as the previous downturn last month BUT it is also forecast to rebound quickly towards neutral again as we approach the 10 -15 day period which could imply another strong winter event for the area IMO also supporting this is the NAO is forecasted to gradually turn more towards neutral about the same time as is the PNA with the EPO remaining negative . MJO is forecasted to run through 4-5 heading towards a more favorable colder 6 - but then again these are only forecasts as of today - could change and what actually verifies might be different... We agree. Right now, the block does not look as strong as the January one, though it has trended stronger in recent days. All in all, I'm thinking the month will wind up somewhat on the warmer side of normal (+0.8° was my guess). Of course, some of the colder weekly guidance could be out to lunch so to speak and the second half of the month could wind up close to normal (or perhaps even milder should the blocking collapse). Week 3 and 4 forecasts are a little better than coin tosses in the larger scheme of things, so I gave them some weight (not much, but some). Otherwise, I might have guessed something close to +2.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 He didnt say anything about a modiki nino? Correct . Posted basin wide forcing arguments along with basin wide 500 mb maps for J- M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 With Jan 16 in the book, let's take a look at final temp departures. KEWR: +1.6 KISP: +2.56 KJFK: +1.82 KLGA: +2.69 KNYC: +1.74 KHPN: +2.66 Still broadly above, but obviously not to the extremes seen in December and definitely not the hard cold that had been advertised by some. As can often be the case in El Nino's, we had a lot of modulation of cold air in the east this month, and were still able to squeeze out an amazing snow storm against a background warmer signal. For those of you who care for this sort of thing, I've calculated national HDD's at 923.25, a solid 29.8 HDD's warmer than the 30 year normal. There is no doubt that even though this could finish warmer than 97-98 on average it wasn't even close to as mild as that winter was wall to wall. One month basically skewed the entire thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 There is no doubt that even though this could finish warmer than 97-98 on average it wasn't even close to as mild as that winter was wall to wall. One month basically skewed the entire thing. Sure. But I also don't think all Nino's are created equal. I think you have a background forcing state which is always somewhat present and sub-seasonal modulators of that background signal. Sometimes, the signal can be completely overwhelmed or it can be amped to the extreme within the bounds of standard sub-seasonal variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 this was the third strongest el nino on the mei scale... el nino winters rated by the mei index... winter.....max mei date D/J mei.....max oni date DJF oni.....snowfall.....big snow ave temp 1982-83...3.038 F/M...2.689..........2.2 NDJ..........2.2..........27.2".....17.6".....37.9 1997-98...3.004 J/A....2.481..........2.4 OND.........2.2...........5.5".......5.0".....39.6 2015-16...2.527 A/S.......................2.3 OND........................27.2".....26.8"......... 1991-92...2.271 M/A...1.751..........1.6 DJF..........1.6..........12.6".......6.2".....37.2 1987-88...2.140 A/M...1.093..........1.6 JAS..........0.8..........19.1".......5.8".....34.8 1992-93...1.992 A/M...0.700..........0.6 MAM.........0.2..........24.5".....10.6".....35.0 1972-73...1.944 N/D...1.705..........2.1 OND.........1.8............2.8".......1.8".....35.8 2009-10...1.517 J/F....1.148..........1.6 NDJ..........1.6..........51.4".....20.9".....33.8 1965-66...1.477 J/A....1.322..........1.9 OND.........1.4..........21.4".......6.8".....35.9 1957-58...1.474 D/J....1.474..........1.8 NDJ..........1.8..........44.7".....11.8".....33.3 1994-95...1.434 S/O...1.197..........1.2 NDJ..........1.0..........11.8".....10.8".....37.1 2006-07...1.290 O/N...0.970..........1.0 OND.........0.7..........12.4".......5.5".....36.5 2002-03...1.180 D/J....1.180..........1.3 OND.........1.1..........49.3".....19.8".....31.2 1976-77...1.026 A/S...0.517..........0.8 OND.........0.6..........24.5".......5.2".....28.5 2004-05...1.018 F/M...0.296.........0.7 OND.........0.6..........41.0".....13.8".....35.4 1979-80...1.015 N/D...0.694.........0.6 NDJ..........0.5..........12.8".......4.6".....35.4 1977-78...1.007 S/O...0.779.........0.8 NDJ..........0.7..........50.7".....17.7".....30.3 2014-15...0.932 A/M...0.406.........0.7 NDJ..........0.6..........50.3".......9.8".....31.7 this year should end up averaging 40.0 or higher...snowfall could be around 40"...D/J mei should be close to 2.000 and the on1 close to 2.2...so far it's one big storm and nothing else...but we still have six to eight weeks left for chances...2015-16 will end up warmer than 1982-83, 1997-98, 1972-73 unless February is very cold and it's starting out mild... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I could see us getting 30-40" easily with a top 5 warmest winter, which would be unprecedented. Agree that mid month offers the best chance at another snowstorm with the AO dipping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I could see us getting 30-40" easily with a top 5 warmest winter, which would be unprecedented. Agree that mid month offers the best chance at another snowstorm with the AO dipping. maybe....but the cold spell is looking less and less by the day-so if we miss that we run the chance of being skunked with the torch on both ends of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 i was going to quote pb's ignore the nam posts but he deleted them. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 So much for the warmth being transient...temps overperforming again today and mt holly has bumped me to highs of 45 and 48 for the weekend...that would make 7 days above normal not including the 31th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Good. Might as well be warm if it's not going to snow. I got my blizzard, so I'm done complaining about winter. Still rooting for snow, but if it's not happening give me 60s all day any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Nice snowstorm for interior next Tuesday on GFS/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 i was going to quote pb's ignore the nam posts but he deleted them. lol I don`t delete anything , it should be there I SAID IGNORE THE NAM YOU WERE OTS 7 DAYS OUT /WHEN I SAID BLIZZARD . DID YOU FIND THOSE ? I WAS 10 PLUS 20 IN CNJ 2 DAYS OUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 1- 7 may end + 10 . Then there will be a cold with a potential snow period between or at the back end of day 10 - 15 . Probably as the vortex leaves mid month . Agree and Bluewave is right , if you said AN temps with AN snow , you can claim victory . I thought you said that Feb 5 - Feb 22 would be the cold and snowy days a couple of days ago. So now you think it's between Feb 10-15 only? That would be bad news. Please reaffirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I thought you said that Feb 5 - Feb 22 would be the cold and snowy days a couple of days ago. So now you think it's between Feb 10-15 only? That would be bad news. Please reaffirm. Don't look at today's GEFS, it's barely there at all-maybe back to normal for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Deleted ?LOL Posted 21 January 2016 - 06:20 AM 10,299 postsJoined December 22, 20110 warning pointsOvercast58 °FVariable @ 6 MPHIGNORE THE NAM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Carry on . You will find this in the Major coastal disco , it was responded too twice . Deleted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I thought you said that Feb 5 - Feb 22 would be the cold and snowy days a couple of days ago. So now you think it's between Feb 10-15 only? That would be bad news. Please reaffirm. The coldest period looks to be inside the 8-15 with however one or more of these systems are going to work . The cold guidance is not as long and strong as it was 3 days ago . But it is not terrible . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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