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Continued Winter Banter.


Ericjcrash

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many are VERY upset ,,,with Euro ... But my 2 cents .IS ... FOLKS ...ONLY  TUE MORNING ,,,.so many model runs to go ..THERE is going to shifts ...there are going to BLIPS ,, IS this a SOUTH trend ,,, who knows ...LETS WAIT and see ...watch storm evolve ,,,its fun to watch ,,,BUT ...WE TRULY wont get a CLEAR picture until WED OZ suite ,,,at the earliest ...Just my opinion ...until then ,... we watch and wait ,,

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Question: Why does it seem that, as we approach show time, the three main models now seem to be diverging in how they evolve the storm? It seemed to me they were in better agreement earlier on.

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It always seems to happen around this time frame prior to the start of a potential storm. Once again, there are going to be run to run variations and this where the ensembles are also helpful. I would think that by the 12z runs on Wednesday or the 00z runs on Thursday the models should be coming around to a final consensus, then we can concentrate on the finer details. Even if the NYC metro area doesn't see the really heavy amounts I don't think anyone should be complaining, I think the NYC metro will see at least a foot with this system.

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